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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#101
post #36
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can already pay $0 a month and use uncensored local models for both text and images. Llama, Mixtral, Stable diffusion and Flux are a lot of fun and free to run locally, you should try them out.

You can pay $0 for those models because a company paid $lots to train them and then released them for free. Those models aren't going away now of course, but lets not pretend that being able to download the product of millions of dollars worth of training completely free of charge is sustainable for future developments. Especially when most of the companies releasing these open models are wildly unprofitable and will…

Much could be said about open source libraries that companies release for free to use (kubernetes, react, firecracker, etc). It might be strategically make sense for them so in the meantime we’ll just reap the benefits.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#103
post #89

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back. Or even AI a couple of years back, remember Watson? The hype cycle was faster to close that time.

I see you haven’t tried the latest FSD build from Tesla.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#104
post #16

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

"This is actually good for Bitcoin"

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#105
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

idk. about Claude 3.5 but if you remove implicit subventions from the AI/AGI hype then for many such tools the cost to benefit calculation of creating and operating will become ... questionable furthermore the places where such tools tend to shine the most often places where the IT industry has somewhat failed, like unnecessary verbose and bothersome to use tools, missing tooling and troublesome code reuse (so you wr…

Hopefully it will be able to also reduce boilerplate and do reasonable DRY abstractions if repetition becomes too much.

E.g. I feel like it should be possible to first blast out a lot of repetitive code and then for LLM to go over all of it and abstract it reasonably, while tests are still passing.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#107
post #16

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

I have yet to watch people be THAT more productive using, say, Copilot. Outside of some annoying boilerplate that I did not have to write myself, I don't know what kind of code you are writing that makes it all so much easier. This gets worse if you are using less trendy languages.

No offense, but I have only seen people who barely coded before describe being "very productive" with AI. And, sure, if you dabble, these systems will spit out scripts and simpler code for you, making you feel empowered, but they are not anywhere near being helpful with a semi-complex codebase.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#108

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

"Plausible-looking but incorrect sentences" is cheap, reflexive cynicism. LLMs are an incredible breakthrough by any reasonable standard. The reason to be optimistic about further progress is that we've seen a massive improvement in capabilities over the past few years and that seems highly likely to continue for the next few (at least). It's not going to scale forever, but it seems pretty clear that when the dust settles we'll have LLMs significantly more powerful than the current cutting edge -- which is already useful.

Is it going to scale to "superintelligence?" Is it going to be "the last invention?" I doubt it, but it's going to be a big deal. At the very least, comparable to google search, which changed how people interact with computers/the internet.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#109

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

I agree on the first two points. On the third point, I think we've always seen this happen even in massive shocks like the Industrial Revolution (and the Second Industrial Revolution with assembly lines etc. and the Computer Age) It might be hard for people to retrain to whatever the new opportunities are though. Although perhaps somewhat easier nowadays with the internet etc.

The Industrial Revolution was a period of massive economic growth that was coupled with decline in the quality of life of the average worker.

This Economist article talks about how looking at the historical data, historians now see that the height of the average Englishman actually went down due to malnutrition. https://web.archive.org/web/20210905065401/https://www.econo...

The myth that the Industrial Revolution was a wonderful time is just that, a myth. The actual reality of the AI revolution will likely be the same. Record number of billionaires and record number of people in deep poverty at the same time.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#110
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting, but technology has always been about augmenting or mimicking human intelligence, though. The Turing test is literally about computers being able to mimic humans so well that real humans wouldn't be able to tell them apart. We're now past that point in some areas, but we never really prioritized thinking about what intelligence _actually_ is, and how we can best reproduce it. At the end of the day,…

How does agriculture, or cars, or penicillin augment or mimick human intelligence?

That's beside my point, but they augment it. Agtech enhances our ability to feed ourselves; cars enhance our locomotor skills; medicine enhances our self-preservation skills, etc.
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