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Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

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Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#621

Post by crossroadsguy »

paxys wrote: post #195

I will never understand why people still take statements like these at face value. These aren't her personal thoughts and feelings. The letter was carefully crafted by OpenAI's PR team under strict direction from Sam and the board. Whatever the real story is is sitting under many layers of NDAs and threats of clawing back/diluting her shares, and we will not know it for a long time. What I can say for certain is no e…

It's like the "smile". The smile that I see on faces when I walk around - I mean the faces that I have never seen before and will never see again. Smiles on those faces which are not really smile unless we call it a smile every time facial muscle stretch. It's just pulling your corners of the lip away from the middle and just nod mindlessly which often actually looks more of a frown than a smile but that's called the polite mandatory smile. Nobody who has ever smiled in their lives or have seen someone really smile takes those smiles as smiles at face value, do they?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#622

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

HaZeust wrote: post #609
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on how well you understand how the fancy autocomplete is working under the hood. You could compare GPT-o1 chain of thought to something like IBM's DeepBlue chess-playing computer, which used MTCS (tree search, same as more modern game engines such as AlphaGo)... at the end of the day it's just using built-in knowledge (pre-training) to predict what move would most likely be made by a winning player. It's n…

At that point, how are you not just a fancy autocomplete?

Well, tons of ways. I can't imagine what an "autocomplete only" human would look like, but it'd be pretty dire - maybe like an idiot savant with a brain injury who could recite whole books given the opening sentence, but never learn anything new.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#623

Post by famouswaffles »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #559
HeatrayEnjoyer wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>no memory, no self-modification (learning). This is also true of those with advanced Alzheimer's disease. Are they not conscious as well? If we believe they are conscious then memory and learning must not be essential ingredients.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I thought we're talking about intelligence, not consciousness, and limitations of the LLM/transformer architecture that limit their intelligence compared to humans. In fact LLMs are not only architecturally limited, but they also give the impression of being far more intelligent than they actually are due to mimicking training sources that are more intelligent than the LLM itse…

LLMs are predictors not imitators. They don't "mimick". They predict and that's a pretty big difference.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#624

Post by squigz »

navjack27 wrote: post #514

Okay hear me out. Restructuring for profit right? There will probably be companies spawned off of all of these leaving. If the government ever wants a third party to oversee safety of openAI wouldn't it be convenient if one of those that left the company started a company that focused on safety. Safe Superintelligence Inc. gets the bid because lobbying because whatever I don't even care what the reason is in this mad…

> But also obviously this is exactly exactly what has happened in the past with other industries.

Could you give some examples?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#625

Post by saagarjha »

mindslight wrote: post #555
saagarjha wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And who is going to fix your shower when it leaks, and install solar panels, or redo your kitchen because your parents are living with you now and can't bear to leave their traditional cooking behind?

A whole new shower is less than $200 at REI, and solar generators ship directly to your house. (And on a serious note - if your parents are both still alive and moving in with you while they have hobbies and self-actualization, you're way ahead of the game)

And labor is free, right?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#626

Post by boroboro4 »

dartos wrote: post #386
stocknoob wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TIL Math Olympiad problems are simple grammar exercises.

They do way more than correcting grammar, but tbf, they did make something like 10,000 submissions to the math Olympiad to get that score. It’s not like it’ll do it consistently. Just a marketing stunt.

You’re talking about informatics Olympiad and O-1. As for Google’s DeepMind network and math Olympiad it didn’t do 10000 submissions. It did however generated bunch of different solutions but it was all automatic (and consistent). We’re getting there.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#627

Post by peanball »

crossroadsguy wrote: post #617
whiplash451 wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The baptists and the bootleggers https://a16z.com/ai-will-save-the-world/

Is there no date on that post or I missed it somewhere? I mean it might be on the lines that if the oracle says something it becomes dateless. Yeah, that could be it.

Right at the top (at least on mobile): “Posted June 6, 2023”

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#628

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

famouswaffles wrote: post #623
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I thought we're talking about intelligence, not consciousness, and limitations of the LLM/transformer architecture that limit their intelligence compared to humans. In fact LLMs are not only architecturally limited, but they also give the impression of being far more intelligent than they actually are due to mimicking training sources that are more intelligent than the LLM itse…

LLMs are predictors not imitators. They don't "mimick". They predict and that's a pretty big difference.

Well, it's typically going to be a collective voice, not an individual, but they are certainly mimicking ... they are trying to predict what the collective voice will say next - to mimick it.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#629

Post by caconym_ »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #616
caconym_ wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "goalposts" are "moving" because now (unlike "mere years ago") we have real AI systems that are at least good enough to be seriously compared with human intelligence. We aren't vaguely speculating about what such an AI system might be like^[1]; we have the real thing now, and we can test its capabilities and see what it is like, what it's good at, and what it's not so good at. I think your use of the "goalposts"…

> but if you think they're general intelligence in the same way humans have general intelligence (even disregarding agency, learning, etc.), that's a you problem. How is it a me problem? The idea of these models being intelligent is shared with a large number of researchers and engineers in the field. Such is clearly evident when you can ask o1 some random completely novel question about a hypothetical scenario and i…

> I think it's much more important to focus on the realm of "useful, hard things that are unique to intelligent systems and their ability to understand the world" is more important than "Possesses the special kind of intelligence that only humans have".

This is a common strawman that appears in these conversations—you try to reframe my comments as if I'm claiming human intelligence runs on some kind of unfalsifiable magic that a machine could never replicate. Of course, I've suggested no such thing, nor have I suggested that AI systems aren't useful.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#630

Post by StefanWestfal »

sumtechguy wrote: post #526
tirant wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The potential risks to humankind do not come from the development of AGI, but from the availability of AGI with a cost orders of magnitude inferior to the equivalent capacity coming from humans.

It is not AGI I am worried about. It is 'good enough' AI. I am doing some self introspection and trying to decide what I am going to do next. As at some point what I do is going to be wildly automated. We can cope or whine or complain about it. But at some point I need to pay the bills. So it needs to be something that is value add and decently difficult to automate. Software was that but not for long. Now mix gettin…

In simple economics, a decrease in price typically results in an increase in demand, unless the demand is inelastic.

Anecdotal experience: Onset of tools such as NumPy, which made it more feasible for a wider range of people to write their own simulations due to drop in cost (time/complexity). This, in turn, increased the demand for tooling, infrastructure, optimisation, etc. and demand for software engineers increased. Yes our jobs will change but there are way to many problems to be solve to assume demand will not increase.

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