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OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

jonmillward.com

11–20 of 101 posts

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#11
I don't know if any of this strikes me as particularly new. Every new female account on any dating site gets absolutely hammered with messages in the first few hours.

What's missing from a lot of discussions is simple supply and demand. I was on OKCupid for a few weeks and paid the $10 for the creepy stalker upgrade. Out of curiosity I started comparing male and female profiles in my city.

In Perth, Australia, for profiles above a 90% match to mine, there were 8 male profiles for every female profile.

For profiles averaging five stars, there were 8.5 male profiles for every female profile.

Supply and demand means that the females on the site can really hold out for more. I suspect that this means that the distribution of actual dating activity will be wildly uneven -- the 1% or 2% of males who are really very attractive will clean up almost the entire female pool's attention. And the 50% of females who are above average will have their pick of the top 25% of the male pool.

Perth is not necessarily a good sample, as this town already has a lopsided male:female ratio. But every city I looked at had the same phenomenon. If I turned attractiveness up to maximum and only went to high matches, males always greatly outnumbered females.

I've given consideration to setting up a dating website in a niche market, but that particular niche market will have an even more lopsided male-centric demographic. I've been seriously wondering about just letting men and women know up front what the current ratios are. The theory being that it will deter some men and encourage some women. Alternatively I might try bar tactics: men pay at the door, women drink for free. Again to deter male users and encourage female users.

Basically it is men who are using these sites, not women. And until someone cracks the code on that, it's going to be a fairly one-sided experience.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#12
post #3

>The fact that the first stage of online dating is so heavily stacked in women’s favour doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s any easier for them, compared to men, to reach the end goal of pure love or perfect sex. Of course, men have it harder than women in the mating game. This conclusion seems like a white lie the author created for women. No one is looking for perfect mate. Both men and women choose their partners f…

You're familiar with the Stable Marriage Algorithm, right? The math doesn't bear you out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_marriage_problem

It's been proven that the algorithm is optimal for the initiators of proposals, i.e. men in contemporary Western culture, although women can hack this by asking guys out themselves.

The confusion is because you've artificially restricted the universe to a subset of its true size. Women's pool of mates to select from isn't 20 times larger than men, because men have already done a round of selection in deciding who to message. You don't actually message every single girl you see on OKCupid, do you? If you're fat or ugly as a woman, you're basically screwed (or rather, not screwed) in the mating game, because you become invisible to most men.

That's why I tell girls on the OKCupid Reddit that messaging guys can only help them. Once in a blue moon (as in once every month or two), I get an unsolicited message on OKC. A majority of the time, I don't reply. The thing is, I would never have messaged these girls to begin with, while occasionally I'll take a chance on a first date if their personality seems interesting, so they've only helped themselves.

It's also worth remembering that there are subsequent rounds of selection too. If women receive (on average) 20x more messages than men, it must mean that men send (on average) 20x more messages than women, since each message has exactly one sender and recipient. They're only going to end up with one girlfriend. So if those girls respond to their favorite guys, many of them will be culled out after the first date, third date, whenever. I've been on I think 16 first dates off OKCupid. I asked only about 3 of them out for a second date. Some (several?) of the remaining 13 probably were not interested in me anyway, but that's still a sizeable number of girls who did not get who they want.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#13

Interestingly the SECOND BEST looking woman got far more messages than the best looking woman, both in US and UK. I wondered why.

Learned helplessness.

Most men stop contacting the most attractive female profiles because they never hear back.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#14

Interestingly the SECOND BEST looking woman got far more messages than the best looking woman, both in US and UK. I wondered why.

higher perceived odds of success by the men, perhaps.

there's an okcupid blog post about this very observation: http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/the-mathematics-of-beauty/

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#15

Interestingly the SECOND BEST looking woman got far more messages than the best looking woman, both in US and UK. I wondered why.

Learned helplessness. Most men stop contacting the most attractive female profiles because they never hear back.

It's also because most men believe that they have no chance with a 9 or a 10. Why bother messaging someone who they believe is vastly out of their league?

Some men are great at hacking the system and ignoring a woman's physical attractiveness, thus scoring really desirable mates. Others instead implicitly follow the rules of thumb that psychology discovered a while ago, according to which an attractive person is much more likely to be with another attractive person.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#16

I don't know if any of this strikes me as particularly new. Every new female account on any dating site gets absolutely hammered with messages in the first few hours. What's missing from a lot of discussions is simple supply and demand. I was on OKCupid for a few weeks and paid the $10 for the creepy stalker upgrade. Out of curiosity I started comparing male and female profiles in my city. In Perth, Australia, for pr…

For ccomparison, it would have been extremely interesting to host this experiment in Eastern European countries such as Russia. Due to alcoholism and many other issues, quality women there outnumber quality men and have to deal with competition that is much more alike that for men in the West.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#17
post #2

For anyone not aware, OkCupid has a fantastic blog where they do all sorts of statistical analysis on their members: http://blog.okcupid.com/ It hasn't been updated in over a year. Downer. Getting bought by match.com has clearly had an effect. I have the extremely dubious honour of having had my profile featured on there once as being of "average attractiveness". People still visit my profile to this day, despite me…

Had. They've stopped updating it post-Match.com acquisition.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#18

Interestingly the SECOND BEST looking woman got far more messages than the best looking woman, both in US and UK. I wondered why.

Since they were both assigned to the same city, it's quite possible that more people use OkCupid in that city.

I have no idea why the author didn't realize what a terrible idea splitting them up across cities was...

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#19
post #3

>The fact that the first stage of online dating is so heavily stacked in women’s favour doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s any easier for them, compared to men, to reach the end goal of pure love or perfect sex. Of course, men have it harder than women in the mating game. This conclusion seems like a white lie the author created for women. No one is looking for perfect mate. Both men and women choose their partners f…

Of course, men have it harder than women in the mating game.

I think this is a myth. I wish years ago someone had told me all I needed to do was walk up to someone I found attractive and say "Hi, my name's Tom, how're you?" The day I started doing so, my dating life was revolutionised.

Actually, this applies to most situations: parties; conferences; seeing a new face at work.

With exception of special cases (maybe alpha males or older women), women on the average have is so much easier when it comes to finding their partner.

Again, I disagree; just like hiring someone, how do you sort through the cruft to find the jewel in X number of applications? I'm not talking about seeking perfection, just someone whose quirks - and we all have them - you can tolerate enough to enjoy a successful relationship.

Re: OkCupid on Trial - 4 Month Experiment

#20

I don't know if any of this strikes me as particularly new. Every new female account on any dating site gets absolutely hammered with messages in the first few hours. What's missing from a lot of discussions is simple supply and demand. I was on OKCupid for a few weeks and paid the $10 for the creepy stalker upgrade. Out of curiosity I started comparing male and female profiles in my city. In Perth, Australia, for pr…

For ccomparison, it would have been extremely interesting to host this experiment in Eastern European countries such as Russia. Due to alcoholism and many other issues, quality women there outnumber quality men and have to deal with competition that is much more alike that for men in the West.

It would have been extremely interesting to host this experiment in Eastern European countries such as Russia. Due to alcoholism...

I can't speak for alcoholism here in Poland, but after moving to Warsaw from London, I was quite surprised at the number of young, single ladies. I've wondered if a seeming small difference in the age 15-64 sex ratio[1] of 0.99 vs 1.03 could be responsible, but really have no idea.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_sex_ratio

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