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Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

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Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#521

Post by neycoda »

navjack27 wrote: post #514

Okay hear me out. Restructuring for profit right? There will probably be companies spawned off of all of these leaving. If the government ever wants a third party to oversee safety of openAI wouldn't it be convenient if one of those that left the company started a company that focused on safety. Safe Superintelligence Inc. gets the bid because lobbying because whatever I don't even care what the reason is in this mad…

Now that AI has exploded, I keep thinking about that show called Almost Human, that opened describing a time when technology advanced so fast that it was unable to be regulated.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#522

Post by navjack27 »

neycoda wrote: post #521
navjack27 wrote: post #514

Okay hear me out. Restructuring for profit right? There will probably be companies spawned off of all of these leaving. If the government ever wants a third party to oversee safety of openAI wouldn't it be convenient if one of those that left the company started a company that focused on safety. Safe Superintelligence Inc. gets the bid because lobbying because whatever I don't even care what the reason is in this mad…

Now that AI has exploded, I keep thinking about that show called Almost Human, that opened describing a time when technology advanced so fast that it was unable to be regulated.

As long as government runs slowly and industry runs fast it's inevitable.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#523

Post by domcat »

yas_hmaheshwari wrote: post #471
bansheeps wrote: post #326

Update: Looks like Barret Zoph, GPT-4's post training (co-)lead is also leaving: https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

Whoa! This definitely looks much more troubling for the company now. Can't decide it is because AGI is coming very soon OR AGI is very far away

Looks like far away is more reasonable.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#524

Post by bmitc »

lionkor wrote: post #130
keeptrying wrote: post #57

If OpenAI is the foremost in solving the AGI - possibly the biggest invention of mankind - it's a little weird that everyone's dropping out. Does it not look like that no one wants to work with Sam in the long run?

Maybe its marketing and LLMs are the peak of what they are capable of.

I continue to be surprised by the talk of general artifical intelligence when it comes to LLMs. At their core, they are text predictors, and they're often pretty good at that. But anything beyond that, they are decidely unimpressive.

I use Copilot on a daily basis, which uses GPT 4 in the backend. It's wrong so often that I only really use it for boilerplate autocomplete, which I still have to review. I've had colleagues brag about ChatGPT in terms of code it produces, but when I ask how long it took in terms of prompting, I'll get an answer of around a day, and that was even using fragments of my code to prompt it. But then I explain that it would take me probably less than an hour from scratch to do what it took them and ChatGPT a full day to do.

So I just don't understand the hype. I'm using Copilot and ChatGPT 4. What is everyone else using that gives them this idea that AGI is just around the corner? AI isn't even here. It's just advanced autocomplete. I can't understand where the disconnect is.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#525

Post by bmitc »

tirant wrote: post #515
vl wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it makes perfect sense to drop out and enjoy last couple years of pre-AGI bliss. Advances in AI even without AGI will lead to unemployment, recession, collapse of our economic structure, and then our social structure. Whatever is on the other side is not pretty. If you are on the forefront, know it’s coming imminently, and made your money, it makes perfect sense to leave and enjoy money and leisures money allows…

The potential risks to humankind do not come from the development of AGI, but from the availability of AGI with a cost orders of magnitude inferior to the equivalent capacity coming from humans.

In my opinion, the risks are from people treating something that is decidely not AGI as if it is AGI. It's the same folly humans repeat over and over, and this will be the worst yet.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#526

Post by sumtechguy »

tirant wrote: post #515
vl wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it makes perfect sense to drop out and enjoy last couple years of pre-AGI bliss. Advances in AI even without AGI will lead to unemployment, recession, collapse of our economic structure, and then our social structure. Whatever is on the other side is not pretty. If you are on the forefront, know it’s coming imminently, and made your money, it makes perfect sense to leave and enjoy money and leisures money allows…

The potential risks to humankind do not come from the development of AGI, but from the availability of AGI with a cost orders of magnitude inferior to the equivalent capacity coming from humans.

It is not AGI I am worried about. It is 'good enough' AI.

I am doing some self introspection and trying to decide what I am going to do next. As at some point what I do is going to be wildly automated. We can cope or whine or complain about it. But at some point I need to pay the bills. So it needs to be something that is value add and decently difficult to automate. Software was that but not for long.

Now mix getting cheap fresh out of college kids with the ability to write decent software in hours instead of weeks. That is a lot of jobs that are going to go away. There is no 'right or wrong' about this. It is just simple economics of cost to produce is going to drop thru the floor. Because us old farts cost more, and not all of us are really good at this we just have been doing it for awhile. So I need to find out what is next for me.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#527

Post by berniedurfee »

bmitc wrote: post #524
lionkor wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe its marketing and LLMs are the peak of what they are capable of.

I continue to be surprised by the talk of general artifical intelligence when it comes to LLMs. At their core, they are text predictors, and they're often pretty good at that. But anything beyond that, they are decidely unimpressive. I use Copilot on a daily basis, which uses GPT 4 in the backend. It's wrong so often that I only really use it for boilerplate autocomplete, which I still have to review. I've had collea…

Here now, you just need a few more ice cold glasses of the kool-aide. Drink up!

LLMs are not on the path to AGI. They’re a really cool parlor trick and will be powerful tools for lots of tasks, but won’t be sci-fi cool.

Copilot is useful and has definitely sped up coding, but like you said, only in a boilerplate sort of way and I need to cleanup almost everything it writes.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#528

Post by berniedurfee »

yas_hmaheshwari wrote: post #471
bansheeps wrote: post #326

Update: Looks like Barret Zoph, GPT-4's post training (co-)lead is also leaving: https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

Whoa! This definitely looks much more troubling for the company now. Can't decide it is because AGI is coming very soon OR AGI is very far away

This is the money grab part of the show.

As LLM capabilities start to plateau, everyone with any sort of name recognition is scrambling to ride the hype to a big pay day before reality catches up with marketing.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#529

Post by Sunhold »

bmitc wrote: post #524
lionkor wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe its marketing and LLMs are the peak of what they are capable of.

I continue to be surprised by the talk of general artifical intelligence when it comes to LLMs. At their core, they are text predictors, and they're often pretty good at that. But anything beyond that, they are decidely unimpressive. I use Copilot on a daily basis, which uses GPT 4 in the backend. It's wrong so often that I only really use it for boilerplate autocomplete, which I still have to review. I've had collea…

Look at the sample chain-of-thought for o1-preview under this blog post, for decoding "oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz". At this point, I think the "fancy autocomplete" comparisons are getting a little untenable.

https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#530

Post by jadtz »

navjack27 wrote: post #514

Okay hear me out. Restructuring for profit right? There will probably be companies spawned off of all of these leaving. If the government ever wants a third party to oversee safety of openAI wouldn't it be convenient if one of those that left the company started a company that focused on safety. Safe Superintelligence Inc. gets the bid because lobbying because whatever I don't even care what the reason is in this mad…

Why would government care about safety? They already have the former director of NSA, sitting member of the board.
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