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Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

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Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#81
post #80
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, all those posts are coming from IP addresses that map to the EU. I think many (most?) are by the same person. About 50% of HN users were in the US, last time I looked at this, but it was years ago.

So basically astroturfing? Does this type of activity automatically get flagged? I wish there were a way for us regular users to be able to detect this. Otherwise, we end up with these discussions where people conclude that something is, say, a widespread mentality in the U.S, or a "Silicon Valley thing", when in reality it could be a small number of bad actors.

It's quite difficult to assess what's happening on HN from the outside (I know, I've tried).

It's both bad form and against guidelines to make accusations.

But you can ping mods if you suspect some sort of promotion/demotion ring, sockpuppets, etc. I'd emailed dang about an hour ago on this thread. My regret is not having done so earlier.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#82
post #2

Some areas may become inappropriate(lethal...) for housing. A lot of people may have to be moved, not to mention the amount of new housing to build. Some states should have a lot of spare housing and keep it available... because because once they need it in a kind of urgent matter...

Or housing can be modified to tolerate the occasional flood. Lives can be saved through better prediction and quick evacuation. The economic impact of regular repair and recovery may be less than abandoning such areas.

It is insanely difficult to construct general-purpose housing which can withstand metres-deep water flowing at high rates. All the more so where flooding is combined with landslides, debris flows, washouts, sinkholes, and the like.

Prediction and advanced warning helps considerably, but is itself problematic where storms intensify rapidly and threaten a huge area. This has been the case for several recent European flood events, most notably in the Ahr valley in 2021:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/13/floods-then-an...>

As I write, Hurricane Helene, a tropical depression just a day ago, is intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico and threatening landfall on a region which spans from Alabama to the Florida peninsula (though the panhandle / Big Bend region seems most likely). The storm is anticipated to further intensify to major hurricane status (category 3 or higher, winds from 178 -- 209 km/h, 111--130 mph, or higher) before making landfall tomorrow evening local time.

That's a huge area which faces possible evacuation. The more so as despite the localised nature of the hurricane eye, Helene's total diameter is huge, and tropical storm or better wind speeds are forecast from Louisiana to South Carolina, and encompas all Florida and Georgia, along with nearly all of Alaabama and South Carolina, as well as parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and North Carolina.

The one saving grace is that the storm seems to be moving rapidly and won't linger over any one area for long, though I suspect that river systems in the southeast will see much flooding.

Forecast cone for eye location: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213335.s...>

Forecast wind speeds: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213335.s...>

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a report on the Schelde river. The total amount of water transported per year is not changing. But the difference in volume varies much more than it used to. We have longer periods with lower water heights, and more extreme heights on peak days. This means a few things: Salinity of the sea perpetrates deeper on land. The risk of drinkable water buffers getting depleted grows. The risk for flooding rises.

Central Europe is in recovery from widespread deforestation. The regrowing forests act as a increasing buffer, weakening floods, overshadowing the effects of climate change.

And yet the increased flood event trend is despite forest recovery.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#84
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed that myself and attributed it to the site having a large percentage of U.S. readers. It's annoying when there's scientific studies and then a lot of the comments take a particular political stance about the topic. The submission itself usually disappears from the front page very quickly too which might be because of the low quality comments.

> a lot of the comments take a particular political stance about the topic. And oftentimes, these political stances are US-centric and don't make sense to anyone else, e.g. you might have an article about the efficacy of masks and then you'll read a dozen comments saying that "Fauci lied to us", which is completely irrelevant to anyone not living in the US (if you really wanted to generalise it, you'd have to claim t…

Whilst much of Europe is well past climate denialism, with the exception of the petro-fascist state of Russia, there's still an active English-speaking denialist community in the UK, less so in politics than in the largely right-wing / conservative press, with such people as Matt Ridley leading that brigade.

I spend a great deal of time reading and listening to news from across Europe, and the degree to which climate, degrowth, and energy transition are treated as mainstream topics is far ahead of the US, another petro-state.

(Notably, Norway doesn't seem to have followed the lead of other petro-states in climate denial that I'm aware, though its own oil-wealth legacy is distinctive on several grounds.)

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#85
post #75
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN audience is both reflexively contrarian (will argue with any article on any subject), and also surprisingly rightwing (exposed to climate change denialists).

Also a surprisingly large number of them are libertarians, whose view is that government can never do anything right and if anybody claims a government intervention (or a concerted society-level effort) is necessary then they are lying. Climate change is, almost by definition, something that cannot be solved at individual level. It must be tackled at the society level. Which makes it a lie in their worldview. Don't a…

I've put some effort into doing so.

Much of the mainstream right-libertarian rhetoric seems to trace most directly to Murray Rothbard and to a lesser degree Robert Nozick (though he distanced himself from that somewhat later in life), with strong supporting roles from Milton Friedman, F.A. Hayek, von Mises, and others. The institutional support is strongly tied to the Kochs, the Cato Institute, and a large group of aligned propaganda mills through the Atlas Network, comprised of 500+ partners in 100+ countries, to quote the network itself. The greatest number are in the US (181) and Europe (157), with a disproportionate number in the English-language speaking Canada (11) and Australia (10):

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Atlas_Network>

https://www.atlasnetwork.org/partners>

Somewhat interestingly, few of the RLs I've encountered seem even aware of this legacy, with many appearing to think that they'd reached an identical set of conclusions (and rhetoric) through their own self-directed free thinking...

The Atlas Network itself is strongly tied to the Mont Pelerin Society. Philip Mirowski and Dieter Plehwe edited an excellent history of that movement, The Raod from Mont Pelerin (2015):

https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674088344>

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#86
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed that myself and attributed it to the site having a large percentage of U.S. readers. It's annoying when there's scientific studies and then a lot of the comments take a particular political stance about the topic. The submission itself usually disappears from the front page very quickly too which might be because of the low quality comments.

FWIW, all those posts are coming from IP addresses that map to the EU. I think many (most?) are by the same person. About 50% of HN users were in the US, last time I looked at this, but it was years ago.

Interesting that they are linked to a limited number of people - that does imply astroturfing to my mind.

I'm glad to see that I'm wrong about it being a U.S.-centric site. My default assumption is that a lot of websites are heavily U.S. biased and a 50% U.S. vs the rest of the world sounds like a good mix to me. (I'm in the UK).

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#87
post #22

What's up with so many Hacker News commenters coming out of the woodwork when headlines blame climate change to challenge it? Just a glimpse of the article shows there's some research behind making the point of the headline, still people feel the need to comment on their feelings to deny it possibly could be due to climate change. Per the article: > The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said one recent four-day p…

> Is science denialism reaching even folks here?

Reaching from where? You are responding to the source of it - emotionally charged language in journalistic reporting.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#88
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed that myself and attributed it to the site having a large percentage of U.S. readers. It's annoying when there's scientific studies and then a lot of the comments take a particular political stance about the topic. The submission itself usually disappears from the front page very quickly too which might be because of the low quality comments.

FWIW, all those posts are coming from IP addresses that map to the EU. I think many (most?) are by the same person. About 50% of HN users were in the US, last time I looked at this, but it was years ago.

[deleted]

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#89
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole COVID Pandemic and the 2020 election definetly brought a lot of nuts out of the woodwork, and they never left. HN was downright insufferable during the pandemic, it really made me think about leaving. Thankfully, nowadays the "bad" topics (mostly politically very polarised ones) tend to be fewer and can more easily be avoided.

> it really made me think about leaving Same here, except it just made me combative on HN. I'm waiting for the day dang blocks my account for a violation AND deletes all my posts, because YC won't honor a CCPA request without proof of identity, and I'm a bit too close for comfort with the YC community so I do not want to furnish that to him or YC. If there was a way to filter accounts created after 2021, or with a po…

fwiw, there's https://news.ycombinator.com/classic which is the "Frontpage as voted by ancient accounts", so dang has some notion of that.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#90
post #22

What's up with so many Hacker News commenters coming out of the woodwork when headlines blame climate change to challenge it? Just a glimpse of the article shows there's some research behind making the point of the headline, still people feel the need to comment on their feelings to deny it possibly could be due to climate change. Per the article: > The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said one recent four-day p…

There are topics HN has extreme difficulty in discussing rationally, one of my prime disappointments with the site.[1] There are also clues in HN's moderation, in guidelines, by members, by mods, and by automated processes, which may give some hints as to how to best address this. HN guidelines include a number of elements which might be used against disinformation / denialist comments, specifically: - Comments shoul…

> If anyone could suggest ways of distinguishing truly flamey threads from those which are substantive-but-spicey, I'd love to hear them

Taking threads that trigger the flamewar detector (simple comments vs points comparison) and then running them (either individual comments or the comments as a whole) through an LLM to score them for flamebait seems obvious so my question is why didn't that go anywhere. If you didn't want to use new technology, you could still just build a classifier based on the usernames involved. It wouldn't have to be perfectly accurate, just enough to flag something for manual review.

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