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Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

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Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#61
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not fringe at all. Watch the all-in podcast on YouTube, who just had Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs as guests, with a large and enthusiastic live audience. Speaking of which, Calacanis just had Covid. Are you still wearing a mask? If not, why not? Covid is still present but Biden declared it over in March 2022 and then it was suddenly officially over for all followers.

You created an account just to argue with me? Use your real account.

I sympathise, having had someone hunt down my (now old) Wordpress blog and post an angry and barely coherent rant there due to something pro-mask that I wrote here:

https://benwheatley.github.io/blog/2021/06/14-21.59.37.html

And yes, I still wear masks on public transport. Except when I clear my pockets and forget to replace them.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#62
Few notes as an European NOT concerned by floods while being born in a relatively flood prone area: it's not about climate change but people who do not want to change. In the very past our ancestors have chosen settlements prone to floods sometimes, BUT with clear water available regularly because back than there was no effective pumped aqueduct and the need for clear water was the same than today, while the impact of floods was sometimes MUCH LESS than today: for instance many old homes was built of two-story with the ground level used only for animals or tools, in case of floods foods was kept at the first level and hay for livestock under the roof. In case of flood anything who suffer water wast dry, animals are easy to moves and steel/wood tools does not suffer much; today car's do not like being flooded and are not as easier to move as livestock in nature back then, we have electricity who not like water as well and so on.

Long story short, it doesn't matter if floods are more frequent or more powerful, our society have changed so our needs are different and we change homes and their location accordingly. This is a thing most people here reject vehemently. I have friends flooded multiple time, they can relocate economically alone as I do, they have no special constraint not to do so, but they refuse, they cry against the government, weather, anything else, they waste money to restore anything and keep going refusing the fact that when their ancestors have chosen a specific place there was different needs than today.

Similarly at less urgent level: back then zones with little circadian thermal variations was preferred because there was no cheap heating, so it was better for human health to be in a moderately change temperature than in a quickly change one every day. Nowadays where it's hotter in summer and we have p.v. and effective insulation it's much better for us living with large daily thermal delta because nights where we do not have p.v. we do not need to cool homes, and even if night are even cold it's not an issue thanks to insulation, while during the day we get "free" A/C with local p.v. Back than being near the sea was nice because yes, sometimes the sea invite itself inside the home, but every day we can go fishing with less time and efforts. Nowadays we can cars, roads etc being so near a certain place it's still useful sometimes but much less demanding than before and avoid salt and chlorine corrosion, submersion etc is much more important.

To going straight to the point: the world have always changes, civilizations have fallen because of that, it doesn't matter if today it's faster than ever or not, and it does not even matter much the various causes because the current climate change impose to adapt, AFTER such monumental effort we could discuss about how much we can mitigate the effects if we can or not. To implement the new deal we need anyway to rebuild anything because we can't on scale converge to electricity homes not designed to be heated with little energy, we can't generate enough, anyway aging infra and homes demand the same. It's not so "urgent" that anyone have to find a new home tomorrow, but it's about time to start discussing how to mass relocate food productions and people, starting from the most difficult areas a step at a time and year after another AND DOING SO CALMLY also makes the economy back on track because no one can de-localize the construction of a home, at least not for the largest part of the job.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#63
post #18
post #5

[flagged]

> Do we just blame every "natural" disaster on climate now? No. > What about acknowledging the effects of improper land management (forestry, rivers, etc)? Those are acknowledged, and there needs to be more focus on it. Was there anything else, or is this just a blatant attempt at spreading doubt about climate change?

My issue is the "it's the climate" narrative takes all the coverage and distracts us from a lot of the low-hanging fruit things we can solve (forest brush, beaver damns in Poland, etc) as well as other environmental issues.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#65
post #52

[flagged]

How do you get to that conclusion from your (2004) link?

Thanks for writing this. I hadn't clicked on the link and wasn't aware that the person you responded to was using data that's 20 years old. It's really awful that that is currently the top-rated comment.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#66
post #2

Some areas may become inappropriate(lethal...) for housing. A lot of people may have to be moved, not to mention the amount of new housing to build. Some states should have a lot of spare housing and keep it available... because because once they need it in a kind of urgent matter...

Or housing can be modified to tolerate the occasional flood. Lives can be saved through better prediction and quick evacuation. The economic impact of regular repair and recovery may be less than abandoning such areas.

prediction and quick evacution is AI hallucination grade.

People died with flash floods, and it is worse if happening in the middle of the night, not to mention in the "middle of nowhere".

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#67
post #3
post #2

Some areas may become inappropriate(lethal...) for housing. A lot of people may have to be moved, not to mention the amount of new housing to build. Some states should have a lot of spare housing and keep it available... because because once they need it in a kind of urgent matter...

As long as housing is considered a financial instrument and problems like NIMBY and overly restrictive zoning continue to persist, none of this will happen.

[flagged]

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#68
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "it's mostly European users" comment I meant it isn't West Coast users on HN at this time of day. It's mostly European users before transitioning to East Coast users It's an international forum, and depending on the time of day, HN's tone changes significantly

I agree that the tone shifts depending on the user base, but your comment appears to imply that there are more fringe takes when European users are online. I don't think that's the case and I also wouldn't know why Europeans are somehow more fringe (we do tend to have different cultural expectations, but "climate change denialism" is, I think, not one of them).

I didn't mean that Europeans make more fringe takes. I think the rate is consistent with American users.

IMO, the difference is there is less usage during peak EMEA hours, which makes fringe takes more prominent and visible, but by the time West Coast is using HN, that is peak overlap time for all users of HN globally.

Re: Europe's deadly floods are glimpse of future climate

#70
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the tone shifts depending on the user base, but your comment appears to imply that there are more fringe takes when European users are online. I don't think that's the case and I also wouldn't know why Europeans are somehow more fringe (we do tend to have different cultural expectations, but "climate change denialism" is, I think, not one of them).

I didn't mean that Europeans make more fringe takes. I think the rate is consistent with American users. IMO, the difference is there is less usage during peak EMEA hours, which makes fringe takes more prominent and visible, but by the time West Coast is using HN, that is peak overlap time for all users of HN globally.

ok fair enough, thanks for explaining.
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