Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Intelligence Age

ia.samaltman.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

401–410 of 447 posts

Re: The Intelligence Age

#401

Post by tim333 »

slantedview wrote: post #332
spencerchubb wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Labor organizers mostly make things worse for laborers. Capitalism has brought much prosperity. "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest"

> Labor organizers mostly make things worse for laborers Nonsense, unless you're prepared to argue that the existence of weekends is "much worse" than working every day.

Weekends go back at least as far as the Old Testament and god resting on the seventh day. While the first recorded labour strike in the United States was by Philadelphia printers in 1786.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#402

Post by tim333 »

Bjorkbat wrote: post #60

A complete tangent, but I think a big reason why I'm kind of dismissive of AI is because people who speculate on what it would enable make it honestly sound kind of unimaginative. > AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. I get it, coordinating medical care is exhausting, but it's kind of amusing that rather…

I find that if you are imaginative or even realistic people just think you are nuts. The reality is we will probably merge with AI and become immortal.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#403

Post by samatman »

jay_kyburz wrote: post #236
whamlastxmas wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wonder if solar plus the absolute massive battery reserves you’d need for a data center ten times bigger than the current worlds largest would still be cost effective versus a single fusion reactor

I wonder how that cost would compare to putting your solar and data center in space? (with non stop solar pointed at the sun) I wonder if cooling is easier or harder in space?

The Thermos is properly known as a "vacuum flask" (or Dewar flask).

Re: The Intelligence Age

#405

Post by defterGoose »

d_burfoot wrote: post #243

OAI's achievements are amazing. But here's a bit of a skeptical take: cheap human-style intelligence won't have a huge impact because such intelligence isn't really a bottleneck today. It's a cliche that the brightest minds of the age are dedicated to selling more ads or shuffling stock ownership around at high velocity. Anyone who's worked at a big tech company knows the enormous ratio of talent to real engineering…

|such intelligence isn't really a bottleneck today.

Yep, pretty much agree. As soon as I see LLMs start solving millennium problems one after another I might change my tune.

The bottleneck is much more likely to be people unwilling to quit hoarding economic potential in the form of money.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#406

Post by onemoresoop »

richardw wrote: post #386
ForHackernews wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any evidence that the "smarter" side wins wars? I'd put money on the faction with more soldiers and industry over more "intelligence" every single time. How many divisions does ChatGPT have?

This is and will be increasingly a digital world. This is just an extrapolation question. It’s repeatedly demonstrated that much of the voting public can be led by the nose to any desired conclusion. Therefore, influence via digital means, across all media. Satellite and all other digital sensing and tracking. Build a few million robots. Nukes. Control over the financial infrastructure. All vaguely smart cars. Interc…

>Besides the argument isn’t AGI vs everyone, it’s a country with AGI vs anyone else. I’d take that bet.

You never entertained the idea that AGI could be a destructive force and instead of a country with AGI you could have a country that devoured its people?

Re: The Intelligence Age

#407

Post by lainga »

nickfromseattle wrote: post #392
bloppe wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Sam Altman generally considered good at his job? OpenAI hasn't really come up with any groundbreaking breakthroughs (transformers came from Google and diffusion came from academia) and they definitely do not make a profit or have any concrete plan to become profitable. He's really good at raising gargantuan amounts of money, but that's not enough to be considered a good founder.

> Is Sam Altman generally considered good at his job? No credit for popularizing the current generation of AI, kicking off $hundreds of billions in CapEx spends, and for more concrete achievements, leading the fastest company to hit 100m users / $1b ARR?

You call some numbers in an ACHS a concrete achievement? I was thinking more like a dam or a school or something...

Re: The Intelligence Age

#408

Post by opan »

This seems to be about AI and not people being/getting smarter, unfortunately. I was imagining something about all the learning resources online these days.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#409

Post by onemoresoop »

charlie0 wrote: post #277
moffkalast wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As large as the absolute largest models are today, they are still microscopic compared to our brains. A 1.7T param model would only store an actual total of about 850 GB if fully saturated (4 bits of information per weight estimated for bf16 transformers), a lot less than a human brain with 150T synapses running in full analog precision. We need to scale the current gen of models at least another 10-100x to even reac…

Comparing a human brain in these terms makes it incredibly obvious how inefficient the human brain actually is. A 1.7T model can answer questions about practically anything. You say a human brain has 150T params. So what? It struggles to give masterful answers in even 1 domain, let alone dozens/hundreds. We need to stop comparing parameters and synapses as if they actually matter, because AFAIK, they really don't.

> Comparing a human brain in these terms makes it incredibly obvious how inefficient the human brain actually is. A 1.7T model can answer questions about practically anything. You say a human brain has 150T params. So what? It struggles to give masterful answers in even 1 domain, let alone dozens/hundreds. We need to stop comparing parameters and synapses as if they actually matter, because AFAIK, they really don't.

Meanwhile the best class AI is trained on the output of human intelligence. When AI can learn by itself in the same way humans do (or even more efficient ways) that's when we can say human intelligence has been surpassed. Until then it's just tools for humans to use to augment their intelligence.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#410

Post by squigz »

saurabhchalke wrote: post #318
gwern wrote: post #150

> If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people. Translation for the rest of us: "we need to fully privatize the OA subsidiary and turn it into…

Why can't we just go with Occam's razor, and assume that they really believe in their mission of providing access to frontier AI as freely to the world as possible?

Because that isn't actually the simpler explanation. The simpler one is that he'll say anything to make money.
Post reply on HN