Until the hallucination problem is solved, we can't trust LLM-type AIs to do anything on their own. This limits uses to ones where the cost of errors can be imposed on someone else.
The Intelligence Age
201–210 of 447 posts
Re: The Intelligence Age
#202> Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale I'm not an AI skeptic at all, I use llms all the time, and find them very useful. But stuff like this makes me very skeptical of the people who are making and selling AI. It seems like there was a really sweet spot wrt the capabilities AI…
> we will solve the remaining problems This is the part that really gets me. This is a thing that you say to your team, and a thing you say to your investors, but this isn't a thing that you can actually believe with certainty is it?
Why not? People believe in all sorts of weird stuff, theirs just happens to be one you don't agree with. Some people believe there are gods up in the sky that will smite them, and go to war with people that believe in a different god that will smite them for different reasons. Some people believe we landed on the Moon, others do not. What matters is what can you convince others to do based on your rational.
Re: The Intelligence Age
#203I don't know if I am the only one who always trips up on reading this common theme in AI progress - that AI will be the pinnacle of education - but it really strikes me as meaningless. What is the point of education if the bots can do all the work. If the worlds best accounting teacher is an AI, why would you want anyone (anything?) other than that AI handling your accounting? A world where human intelligence is seco…
I am more worried about the fact that, these AIs will become the commercial moat of knowledge that we currently have available freely. The quality of knowledge you can now openly find is getting scarce or prominently moving behind paywalls. However, these AI models have access to the same knowledge somehow freely.
Once we start relying on AI for knowledge(see how people frequently just ask few questions, copy paste answers without further in depth knowledge or research, just like the parody stack-overflow copy paste era), it will continue to get locked behind further paywall and will no longer be accessible to general populace without the financial means.
I am just afraid that, while we are too awed by the magic, the magic will eventually close the doors behind us on knowledge and only cater to the rich and powerful.
Also there is that one fact when AI gains adequate power in societal terms of utopian abundance where AI/robots do everything. One day, the AI decides that to save the globe from further climate damage, fastest way is to delete the walking CO2 emission machine who also use other CO2 emission devices or consumes stuff that also generate CO2, a mass extermination and burial will immediately cut all CO2 …
Re: The Intelligence Age
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
The model's arent there yet. I am confused how people cannot extrapolate into the future and understand that the models will improve
And I'm surprised how many people think they can confidently tell whether they're looking at an s-curve or an exponential function based on very limited data points. I don't even doubt that superintelligence is a very real possibility! But it might or might not happen, and if it does, it might or might not be based on deep learning. As a counterexample: The maximum speed of travel for the average person for millenia…
Maybe don't think of it as curves or functions. Just go through an LLM and think about all the things that could be improved. It's a long list once you get into the details. By and large...sota models are:
a) trained on crappy data, including questionable RLHF feedback. b) trained with questionable embedding layers. c) trained with questionable loss functions d) trained with questionable optimizers e) trained at questionable precision (somewhat related to d) f) are very big which stops fast iteration around all the above.
It's kinda like semiconductors. You don't have to think of it as a curve - just ask people who are really close to them and they'll have a laundry list of stupid stuff which is currently done and will likely be improved upon over time.
Re: The Intelligence Age
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's amazing how he can imagine wars being fought over AI but not wars being fought over resources needed to "build enough infrastructure."
Taking it a step further, building that infrastructure may contribute somewhat directly to limiting the other resources actual wars are being fought over. This man needs to get out of his own head.
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
Re: The Intelligence Age
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
Perhaps ironically, Sam Altman is also big into Fusion. ( https://www.helionenergy.com/ ) I guess it makes sense, for deep-learning/LLMs to "scale to infinity" you basically need infinite amounts of power.
And perhaps AI can help some of the problems in building a fusion reactor.
Which is pretty exciting
https://inl.gov/news/going-digital-idaho-students-engineers-...
Re: The Intelligence Age
#207We've had the capability to feed the entire planet for decades now, and yet, a large portion is underfed. Even if Sam's wildest dreams come true, this sounds like another "divide the world into haves and have-nots". One way to justify this unethical view is to consider that his audience was a set of target customers, rather than "people in the world". IOW, this was just fancy marketing fluff.
Re: The Intelligence Age
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Perhaps ironically, Sam Altman is also big into Fusion. ( https://www.helionenergy.com/ ) I guess it makes sense, for deep-learning/LLMs to "scale to infinity" you basically need infinite amounts of power.
cant we use OA intelligence to figure out how to do more with less rather yhan "stupidly" accelerate the climate crisis? the climate crisis + AI is the nightmare
Jevons Paradox says that's not the direction it'll go in.
Re: The Intelligence Age
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even "we will solve the remaining problems" is... perhaps unduly optimistic. At a minimum, we could ask for the evidence.
I'm not here to defend sama, but certain things cannot be proven until they arrive - they can only be extrapolated from existing observations and theoretical limits. Imagine the Uranium Committee of early 40's, where Szilard and others were babbling about 10kg of some magical metal exploding briefly with the power of a sun, with the best evidence being some funky trail in an alcohol vapor chamber. Maybe sama is right…
"They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."
Re: The Intelligence Age
#210> Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. This is one of those few cases where I'm actually more bullish than Altman. I don't need to wait for my kids to have it, but rather I personally am already using this daily. My regular thing is to upload a book/article(s) into the context of a Claude project and then chat w…
So there is some interesting research about brainwave syncing during effective communication, which certainly includes personalized instruction (tutoring) or small-class learning.
I wonder how that works with computers, when we are only sync'ing with the ghosts and statistical patterns of other humans, and those patterns are generated by electronic brains.