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The Intelligence Age

ia.samaltman.com

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141–150 of 447 posts

Re: The Intelligence Age

#141

Post by falcor84 »

> Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need.

This is one of those few cases where I'm actually more bullish than Altman. I don't need to wait for my kids to have it, but rather I personally am already using this daily. My regular thing is to upload a book/article(s) into the context of a Claude project and then chat with it - I genuinely find it to already be at the level of a decent (though not yet excellent) tutor on most subjects I tried, and by far better than listening to a lecture. The main feature I'm missing is of the AI being able to collaborate with me on a digital whiteboard.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#142

Post by blackbear_ »

codingwagie wrote: post #59
lxgr wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm using these models daily, and I don't believe that they're a direct path to superintelligence (unless you'd consider something like the printing press to have been a direct path to, say, the integrated circuit or the Internet). > Prompted incorrectly, it looks incompetent. The abilities of the future are already here, you just need to know how to use the models. Something purportedly intelligent shouldn't need "c…

The model's arent there yet. I am confused how people cannot extrapolate into the future and understand that the models will improve

https://xkcd.com/605

Re: The Intelligence Age

#143

Post by abeppu »

Bjorkbat wrote: post #60

A complete tangent, but I think a big reason why I'm kind of dismissive of AI is because people who speculate on what it would enable make it honestly sound kind of unimaginative. > AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. I get it, coordinating medical care is exhausting, but it's kind of amusing that rather…

And this gets at why the availability of AI doesn't necessarily lead to prosperity and abundance. If you have to subscribe to an AI medical care and benefits advocate, and your insurer buys an AI service to automate the generation of reasons to deny your claims, and you see your doctor for 5 minutes at a time during which they push you towards a drug recommended by an AI Prescriber Assistant app provided by the pharma company ... then we can all be using AI in misaligned ways that leave us no better off.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#144

Post by wrs »

screye wrote: post #118

Question for active professionals during the Moore's law era of computing. Back then, were executives writing such grand proclamations about the future ? In my experience, when things are working, executives are quiet. The outcomes speak for themselves. Thankfully, we have a recent point of reference. The pioneers of internet & computing's 1st wave transformed civilization. Did they spend years saber rattling about h…

Of course they did! During the advent of personal computers there was plenty of hype and grand-visioning for a technology that had very little value until VisiCalc triggered exponential growth. Same story for social networking (look at The WELL), the Web (Netscape practically invented insane-seeming hype-based valuations), many other examples.

In fact, I can't really think of any part of the industry where "outcomes speak for themselves" -- I would have said quite the opposite is the norm.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#148

Post by devonbleak »

lxgr wrote: post #98
idle_zealot wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is pretty comical. "We invented digital superintelligence so it can wait on the phone to talk to your healthcare provider". If we had digital superintelligence then surely it could figure out how to actually provide healthcare to people who meed it, and innovate in treatments. An AGI is a singularity event, in the sense that the transformation it would affect on the state of technology and our lives is rapid and u…

I'm a bit more optimistic in that it might just be able to effect that change through brute force: Scaling a call center is more expensive than scaling phone robots/agents. You could counter that health insurers will just start staffing their call centers with their own robot army, but I suspect that the occasional incredibly expensive hallucination will put an end to that at least in the medium term.

You're assuming health insurers will give a shit about phone robots/agents' hold times.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#149

Post by abletonlive »

Borg3 wrote: post #57
abletonlive wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Nobody expected China to produce as much solar power as it does now. What makes you think we know how much renewable energy we will produce in 2040?

Its sad for me to watch such comments.. Really. People always just focus on one particular issue/problem and try to solve it ignoring anything else. Open your eyes and look a bit broader view. Energy is NOT the only problem. Waste is another very serious one, usually ommited because.. Lets dump it to some 3th world countries and issue is gone right? Nope...

> Its sad for me to watch such comments..

One should always evaluate why they feel such emotions. Is it because you want to or have a tendency towards doom/gloom?

> Energy is NOT the only problem. Waste is another very serious one

That's called moving the goal post. If you want to talk about waste from renewables you're more than welcome to but don't call us myopic for understanding that you can limit the scope of the discussion so that we are focused on the topic at hand.

There's always a group that's a step ahead ready to complain about the next goalpost. First it's that we can't make enough renewable energy, then it's too expensive, then it's that we produce some amount of waste to create the renewable energy, then it's that we'll have so much energy we can't store it all, then it's that renewable energy is not public or free. At every step there's some issue that people like you want to point to as if to say we should just sit where we are born idle and do nothing, change nothing because it's not perfect or there are consequences.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#150

Post by gwern »

> If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people.

Translation for the rest of us: "we need to fully privatize the OA subsidiary and turn it into a B-corp which can raise a lot more capital over the next decade, in order to achieve the goals of the nonprofit, because the chief threat is not anything like existential risk from autonomous agents in the next few years or arms races, but inadequate commercialization due to fundraising constraints".

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