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An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

research.microsoft.com

11–20 of 80 posts

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#11
Among other interesting insights:

* a machine that crashed once is 100 times more likely to crash again; the more it crashes, the more it's prone to fail again.

* overclocking significantly reduces reliability. One CPU vendor (AMD or Intel, but unspecified) is much worse in this regard, too.

* conversely, underclocking improves reliability.

* branded computers are more reliable than beige boxes.

* laptops are more reliable than desktops.

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#12
post #10

Very useful -- I will take this analysis into account when it's time to upgrade my current personal machine or configure the next one! Thank you for posting this here. The only thing I would have wanted to see but didn't in this analysis is how failure rates vary for different types of disk subsystem -- specifically, traditional hard drives versus the newer solid-state devices. I suspect, but don't know for sure, tha…

So far numbers I've seen seem to acknowledge a failure rate of SSDs in the same ballpark as spinning rust but it's only been slightly over a year that most SSDs are actually reliable. Many, many old models were absolutely terrible. Hence I think it may be difficult yet to draw reliable conclusions.

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#13
post #10

Very useful -- I will take this analysis into account when it's time to upgrade my current personal machine or configure the next one! Thank you for posting this here. The only thing I would have wanted to see but didn't in this analysis is how failure rates vary for different types of disk subsystem -- specifically, traditional hard drives versus the newer solid-state devices. I suspect, but don't know for sure, tha…

Funny, I suspect that SSDs have much higher real-world failure rates. (My personal, limited, anecdotal evidence is that my 64 GB Crucial M4 SSD lasted about a year as the root drive in a busy Linux desktop, while I have a stack of about a dozen hard drives that have been retired due to being too small or too slow while still working fine.)

Lack of moving parts is great, but flash allows a finite number of write cycles.

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#15
post #12
post #10

Very useful -- I will take this analysis into account when it's time to upgrade my current personal machine or configure the next one! Thank you for posting this here. The only thing I would have wanted to see but didn't in this analysis is how failure rates vary for different types of disk subsystem -- specifically, traditional hard drives versus the newer solid-state devices. I suspect, but don't know for sure, tha…

So far numbers I've seen seem to acknowledge a failure rate of SSDs in the same ballpark as spinning rust but it's only been slightly over a year that most SSDs are actually reliable. Many, many old models were absolutely terrible. Hence I think it may be difficult yet to draw reliable conclusions.

wazoox: thanks. Do you recall the source(s) for those numbers?

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#16
post #13
post #10

Very useful -- I will take this analysis into account when it's time to upgrade my current personal machine or configure the next one! Thank you for posting this here. The only thing I would have wanted to see but didn't in this analysis is how failure rates vary for different types of disk subsystem -- specifically, traditional hard drives versus the newer solid-state devices. I suspect, but don't know for sure, tha…

Funny, I suspect that SSDs have much higher real-world failure rates. (My personal, limited, anecdotal evidence is that my 64 GB Crucial M4 SSD lasted about a year as the root drive in a busy Linux desktop, while I have a stack of about a dozen hard drives that have been retired due to being too small or too slow while still working fine.) Lack of moving parts is great, but flash allows a finite number of write cycle…

dripton: I hear you, but note that I'm not interested in write-cycle limits nor MTBF stats obtained in a lab setting; I'd just like to know the real-world rate of hardware failure of SSDs.

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#17
The result most surprising to me is that laptops are between 25% and 60% less likely than desktop machines to crash from a hardware fault during the first 30 days worth of measurements.

The much larger weight and volume of desktops would seem to make them easier to cool.

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#18

The result most surprising to me is that laptops are between 25% and 60% less likely than desktop machines to crash from a hardware fault during the first 30 days worth of measurements. The much larger weight and volume of desktops would seem to make them easier to cool.

That caught my eye too.. perhaps it's because laptops are designed with being carried around in mind? Or, to draw on the other conclusions from the paper, because laptops generally have lower-frequency chips (and for that matter, slower memory and disks too)?

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#19
post #7

There are a lot of insights in the paper, but I'd really like to know about this: "The table shows that CPUs from Vendor A are nearly 20x as likely to crash a machine during the 8 month observation period when they are overclocked, and CPUs from Vendor B are over 4x as likely" Obviously it's 5 times difference in probability to have unstable system if overclocked between Intel and AMD but they don't say which one is…

When Google did a massive analysis of hard-drive failures they also didn't publish manufacturer names, because they felt that it would tarnish the company name when it might just be a production run

Re: An Empirical Analysis of Hardware Failures on a Million Consumer PCs

#20
post #16
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny, I suspect that SSDs have much higher real-world failure rates. (My personal, limited, anecdotal evidence is that my 64 GB Crucial M4 SSD lasted about a year as the root drive in a busy Linux desktop, while I have a stack of about a dozen hard drives that have been retired due to being too small or too slow while still working fine.) Lack of moving parts is great, but flash allows a finite number of write cycle…

dripton: I hear you, but note that I'm not interested in write-cycle limits nor MTBF stats obtained in a lab setting; I'd just like to know the real-world rate of hardware failure of SSDs.

I think everyone would. Unfortunately there are financial reasons for SSD manufacturers to keep that information secret and contractual reasons why retailers cannot release it.

I think Intel released some information on the reliability of their SSDs a few years ago but that was likely because they knew they were doing best and their enterprise customers are very interested in that for their data-centre rollouts.

The very limited information I've seen suggests to me that a few years ago SSDs had a much higher failure rate than HDDs (double in the first 6 months) but that has been falling very quickly with each new generation of SSDs (and as the profit margin grows and manufacturers have to work on reputation to justify the markup).

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