The 53,651 meme
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The 53,651 meme
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Re: The 53,651 meme
#2This is an interesting problem that I've wondered about myself. We all talk about Web 2.0 not being a bubble but maybe that's just because the 'average joe' doesn't know anything about what's going on. Other than a few stories about MySpace and YouTube most people never hear about any Internet startups. How do you cross that divide without spending alot of money on TV commercials? During the first bubble they were great at getting people's attention but bad at software, it seems like now things are exactly the opposite.
Re: The 53,651 meme
#3I think it's reasonable to design for the 53,651. What they use, others will later. The Apple II was designed for the 53,651.
Re: The 53,651 meme
#4All business start off as micro-niche. Friendster's demographic was considered a niche just four years ago. Now it is considered "mainstream".
The one thing startups do risk for aiming small is VC investment. Venture Capitalists are reluctant to write a 7 figure check to a startup aiming for the 53,651 audience.
Re: The 53,651 meme
#5TechCrunch has 351k feed subscribers not 53,651. I remember when Mashable covered mainstream startups but, in face of competition, positioned itself towards a smaller niche (covering social networks). Today Mashable has close to 80k subscribers.
There is nothing wrong with aiming small.
Re: The 53,651 meme
#6I think it's reasonable to design for the 53,651. What they use, others will later. The Apple II was designed for the 53,651.
I wonder if user numbers are quantized at the Early Adopter number, or if successful sites smoothly cross that threshold (like the paid user quantization). For instance, did myspace or youtube have a user population stall around the 50k mark before becoming more widely successful?
Re: The 53,651 meme
#7TechCrunch has 351k feed subscribers not 53,651. I remember when Mashable covered mainstream startups but, in face of competition, positioned itself towards a smaller niche (covering social networks). Today Mashable has close to 80k subscribers. There is nothing wrong with aiming small.
It's not a matter of aiming small or finding a safe niche. Build something good and don't be afraid to aim big with broad appeal -- as long as focus isn't scattered. The market for early adoption may start off small, but that's frequently the case.
Consider HD TVs and displays. Years back, it was the enthusiasts who were the early adopters. But I can assure you HD is no niche market and the companies behind them were not aiming small.
Re: The 53,651 meme
#8TechCrunch has 351k feed subscribers not 53,651. I remember when Mashable covered mainstream startups but, in face of competition, positioned itself towards a smaller niche (covering social networks). Today Mashable has close to 80k subscribers. There is nothing wrong with aiming small.
They had 53K at the time of writing ;) That article is from nearly a year ago..
I think that that is part of the key to understanding why the 53K are targetted- Because anything they're talking about now has a good chance of making it big later on.
It's a risk, and it doesn't always (seldom?) pays out, but if I were to infer into the minds ofany dozens of developers, I'd think they're looking at the Techcrunch readers as the type of Early Adopters that they want/need to get them started- The type of people who are going to get excited about a product, to tell their friends.
These are the people who will spend a day trying new technologies, whereas most "normal" people only try it once a friend recommends it. Those targeting the TC-crowd want to find that friend.
-Colin
Re: The 53,651 meme
#9The web is evolving very fast these days. It seems to me that because of our connections and web browsing habits, people reading this are often disconnected from how "normal" people view the web. Let me assure you, this web 2.0 craze we are seeing is no bubble. What will happen? well, in a sense, web 2.0 is really interactive web 1.0. The future leaders of the social web will analyze the strengths and weaknesses of today's leaders: Google, Facebook, Myspace, Del.icio.us, Wikipedia, and Craigslist. (technology increases exponentially: never forget this)
When a website incorporates all the positives of these types of websites into 1 all encompassing tool for organizing the unlimited information of the Internet, then we will see something great. We will see an evolution of these tools and it will not only be something people can use to get more efficiency out of life, it will actually improve people's lives and societies (globally).
If you think the effects social networks and human/computer interaction are amazing, wait until you see the children of these sites. It is *absolutely* not a coincidence that the founders of Reddit played WoW. They realize that power of a website is directly correlated to the amount of user input into a website. The dilemma we entrepreneurs are faced with today is creating systems that encourage maximum participation.
How does this tie into the 53,000 theory? None of the big winners, and I am talking the big ones, facebook, myspace, google, msnpages, orkut, (these are the sites that lead the world in user participation) succeeded because of blog recommendations. They succeeded because they were better ways of experiencing the Internet, not because some ÃÂexpertÃÂ on techcrunch told the geeks it was a cool product.
Well, there are many amazing "web 2.0" websites out there that will never be used by the masses until their friends, not techcrunch, invites them.
On the Internet, the best solution always win. Humans are economical; they do what is best for themselves. When we create a search/browsing tool that is at the same time more rewarding and fun than myspace/wikipedia/delicious/digg we will see the whole world adopt this method, the same way the world has adopted the Google search, the same way all the ÃÂcoolÃÂ people are on myspace. This website will not only be as "cool" and as fun, it will actually enhance people's lives.
This is the future of the web. It is also no coincidence that VC's like the one whom this post is referring to, have seen a lot of "like delicious but XXX" or "Digg killers" This is not just hype, one day it will happen. One day there will be a delicapedieddit that will emerge as the new Internet powerhouse.
Re: The 53,651 meme
#10I'd say there're two kinds of startups which are unknown to mainstream America. One is the kinds the general public have actually used, but just may not realize that is a service provided by a startup company. This includes the likes of Slide or Meebo, which many more people have put their widgets on their blogs/Myspace than going on to their proprietary website. These startups are fine; they may just need more PR to the mainstream media.
The startups that are really hard to reach mainstreams are those me-too startups, which are those "social network for XX" or "youtube cross wikipedia" kind of thing that users could not tell a slight difference from the sites that they have been using.