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Why to Not Write a Book

gwern.net

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Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#71
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are most likely not Douglas Adams though. He was obviously incredibly gifted and good at what he did. 99.9% of people will not be that talented.

So 0.1% of people who don't have a burning desire for it should still write a book, which seems like a large amount of people to me. And there's not really a way to know if you're gifted and talented at writing, so just go for it anyways. Your appeal to exception falls flat because there's no reason why there can't be another one.

That's like 3 million missed books in the US alone. I agree with the argument, though. And the number may be reasonable.

Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#72

I always find it very interesting when smart people mistakenly exaggerate how difficult it is to achieve something. Pro bodybuilder is hard to become but it's very likely that with once to once every 10 days in the gym is going to transform the average person into a monster. Funny how we can make assumptions about life which are totally wrong. I did this as well by believing. 1) Making money is hard 2) Your startup n…

It's very likely that the average person will become pro bodybuilder level monster with hitting the gym oncee every 10 days?!!!

Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#74
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So 0.1% of people who don't have a burning desire for it should still write a book, which seems like a large amount of people to me. And there's not really a way to know if you're gifted and talented at writing, so just go for it anyways. Your appeal to exception falls flat because there's no reason why there can't be another one.

That's like 3 million missed books in the US alone. I agree with the argument, though. And the number may be reasonable.

You're assuming that 0.1% can still get the thing finished and out there, given a success rate of around 1/100 between people who want to write a book and those that actually complete it, the number of missed books is probably closer to 3000.

Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#77

I've once talked to a semi-successful author. His day job was Mechanical Engineering at the local university. He eventually quit once he had his formula worked out. He writes crime novels. Doesn't even like them, but if you want to sell, you either write smut (big gamble) or crime novels (less crowded). Anything you actually want to write about, you have to shoehorn into the crime novel. You also have to keep your pr…

I read some subreddits for authors for a while, and all of the advice was like this. A few authors get lucky writing what they like, but most of them find a niche and relentlessly optimize for it. Romance sounded like the most optimizable, because it's a bunch of microgenres, and within a microgenre the readers want to read the exact same thing over and over. Some authors were making good money writing a book a month…

It's partly a transition in the industry towards less risk taking. You see it in the movie industry as well.

Certain authors are the equivalent of blockbuster movie releases. Publishers pay them huge amounts and market the ever living daylights out of them. Sally Rooney is a recent example, or authors like Salman Rushdie or Zadie Smith, where their books releases are "events". Many publishers are moving away from the long tail model that used to let "midlist" authors still eke out a living or at least publish. The consolidation in the industry has also made it difficult for authors to shop their books around to different publishers with their own "brands".

The other "safe" bet for publishers has been genre books, like romance or crime, with clear templates and the ability to churn out books while relying on the authors name more than anything else, like Grisham. In romance, for example, there is a big emphasis on "family" series, where each book focuses on a different member of a family or group. An example is an author like Kleypas. The books are essentially just variations on a set of tropes, almost algorithmic, but the way they fit together and mutually reference one another keeps people invested.

In general though, very few authors make a living writing. The midlist era that thrived in the last 19th and 20th century is sadly going the way of the dodo.

Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard this many times before (I think Charles Bukowski used to preach this?), and I have to say I disagree. Famously Douglas Adams had to be forced to write every sentence in the Hitchhiker's Guide. He certainly didn't have a book inside him that had to get out, he had external deadlines and rent to pay. Can you imagine a world without HGTTG?

HHTG was an odd one since he was adapting existing material (the radio series) to a novel form.

I have nothing to add to the conversation but love the continual degrading of coherency with the acronym used.

Next comment someone please call it HGGHT.

Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#79
post #76

Would most of the arguments apply for videogames? "Why to Not Write a Game"?

Gwern and the articles examples are not terribly well known for output of interactive fiction that is almost but not quite a video game, so most of it does not apply.

Re: Why to Not Write a Book

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anything you actually want to write about, you have to shoehorn into the crime novel. Isaac Asimov figured that out!

What do you mean? All I read was foundation, some non fiction, and robot short story collections.

Are you being sarcastic? The Robot novels are basically crime novels with robots...
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