So ChatGPT has a cutoff date on the stuff it can talk about. This predicting weather sounds like ChatGPT being able to predict next week's news from which it has been trained on. I can see how it can probably predict some stuff like Argentina winning a football match scheduled for next week when played against India given India sucks at football. But can it really give any useful predictions? Like can it predict things which are not public? Like who will Joe Rogan interview in 2 weeks? Or what would be the list of companies in YCs next batch?
Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
61–70 of 156 posts
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
something within the interface that more clearly illustrates their product differentiation. nullschool is obscure enough to the general audience that when I saw it there was an immediate red flag. If only specialized scientists can see the difference between the sites, it's a presentation problem.
I was able to determine what this is, and I’m not a specialized scientist. I merely exercised the discipline to read the post before reacting and commenting.
Why are you personally attacking me?
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#63I keep waiting for someone to integrate data from NEON
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#64Is the plan to expand from weather forecasting into climate simulation? Given the complexity of the finding initial conditions on the earth, a non-physical (or only implicitly-physical) model seems like it could offer a very promising alternative to physical models. The existing physical models, while often grossly correct (in terms of averages), suffer from producing unphysical configurations on a local basis.
Yes, 100%! We'll still take a statistical/distributional approach to long-ranged climate behavior rather than trying to predict exact atmospheric states. Keep an eye out for more news on this
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t think I understand what your issue is with them. They used an open-source project to visualize their data, were open about doing so, and cited the creator of the project. What more did you want from them? (Genuine question.)
something within the interface that more clearly illustrates their product differentiation. nullschool is obscure enough to the general audience that when I saw it there was an immediate red flag. If only specialized scientists can see the difference between the sites, it's a presentation problem.
The interface in question is the second link in the post. To get to the interface without any of the other relevant context, you would have to:
- skip reading the post (which explains all of this)
- skip the first link in the post (which explains all of this)
- go straight to the second link in the post, to the interface
- skip the "about" link in the interface (which explains all of this)
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hi, this looks really cool! Can we meet? Shoot us an email at contact@silurian.ai
Maybe between the two of you, you can tell me why my Alexa is telling me there’s no rain today, but it’s raining right now.
You'll need to subscribe to Alexa weather plus, for only 9.99$/month.
Now seriously, yes, hyperlocal short-term weather forecast should be a commodity, even public utility?
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#67So ChatGPT has a cutoff date on the stuff it can talk about. This predicting weather sounds like ChatGPT being able to predict next week's news from which it has been trained on. I can see how it can probably predict some stuff like Argentina winning a football match scheduled for next week when played against India given India sucks at football. But can it really give any useful predictions? Like can it predict thin…
Sure, not every model is an autoregressive transformer. And even a GPT could give some useful predictions if you stuff the context window with things it's been fine tuned to predict. We did that to get GPT to play chess a few years ago.
Specifically, I could imagine throwing current weather data at the model and asking it what it thinks the next most likely weather change is going to be. If it's accurate at all, then that could be done on any given day without further training.
The problems happen when you start throwing data at it that it wasn't trained on, so it'll be a cat and mouse game. But it's one I think the cat can win, if it's persistent enough.
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#68Does anyone predict economy/population/... by simulating individual people based on real census information? Monte carlo simulation of major events (births, death, ...) based on known statistics based on age, economic background, location, education, profession, etc.? It seems there are not that many people that this would be computationally infeasible, and states and companies have plenty of data to feed into such s…
Doyne Farmer's group at Oxford does 'agent-based' economics simulations in this vein. He has a new book called 'Making Sense of Chaos' that describes it.
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#69How accurate is the weather prediction for a city for tomorrow on average for the min and max temperature? Thanks a lot!
Re: Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth
#70Curious to see what other things you will simulate in the future! Shameless plug: recently we've built a demo that allows you to search for objects in San Francisco using natural language. You can look for things like Tesla cars, dry patches, boats, and more. Link: https://demo.bluesight.ai/ We've tried using Clay embeddings but we quickly found out that they perform poorly for similarity search compared to embedding…
howdy! Clay makers here. Can you share more? Did you try Clay v1 or v0.2
What image size embeddings from what instrument?
We did try to relate OSM tags to Clay embeddings, but it didn't scale well. We did not give up, but we are re-considering ( https://github.com/Clay-foundation/earth-text ). I think SatClip plus OSM is a better approach. or LLM embeddings mapped to Clay embeddings...