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Terence Tao on O1

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201–210 of 527 posts

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#201
post #193

Rewind your mind to 2019 and imagine reading a post that said “The experience seemed roughly on par with trying to advise a mediocre, but not completely incompetent, graduate student.” With regard to interacting with the equivalent of Alexa. That’s a remarkable difference in 5 years.

The important point is, I feel, that most people are not even at the level of intelligence of a "a mediocre, but not completely incompetent, graduate student." A mediocre graduate science student, especially of the sort who graduates and doesn't quit, is a very impressive individual compared to the rest of us. For "us", having such a level of intelligence available as an assistant throughout the day is a massive life…

>A mediocre graduate science student, especially of the sort who graduates and doesn't quit, is a very impressive individual compared to the rest of us.

Incorrect. University graduates shows a good work ethic, a certain character and a ability to manage time. It's not a measure of being better than the rest of humanity. Also, it's not a good measure of intelligence. If you only want to view the world through credentials. Academics don't consider your intelligence until you have a Ph.D and X years of work in your field. Industry only uses graduates as a entry requirement for junior roles and then favors and cares only about your years of experience after that. Given that statement I can only assume you haven't been to University. You are mistaken to think, especially in time we are in now that the elite class are any more knowledgeable then you are.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#202
post #51

Tao mentions grad students; I wonder how they feel reading this? As LLMs continue to improve I feel like anyone making a living doing the "99% perspiration" part of intellectual labor is about to enter a world of hurt.

Or can everyone now lead research projects and build businesses?

No, almost everyone who gets funding for a business already belongs to the monied royalty and gets it either directly from his family, via friends of the family or laundered through a VC.

There are exceptions of course, but that's how the bulk of businesses, especially those with stupid ideas are funded. In the latter category success does not even matter, the trust fund baby just has to have the appearance of a leader position.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest, I have gotten 100x more useful answers out of Siri's WolframAlpha integration than I ever have out of ChatGPT. People don't want a "not completely incompetent graduate student" responding to their prompts, they want NLP that reliably processes information. Last-generation voice assistants could at least do their job consistently, ChatGPT couldn't be trusted to flick a light switch on a regular basis.

Then you have a skill issue. 10 million paying are for GPT monthly because a large of them are getting useful value out of it. WolframAlpha has been out for a while and didn't take off for a reason. "GPT couldn't be trusted to flick a light switch on a regular basis" pretty much implies you are not serious or your knowledge about the capabilities of LLM is pretty much dated or derived from things you have read.

FACT: The technology is inherently unreliable in its current form. And the weakness is built in, its not going to go away anytime soon.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this mean? Of course math AI will take over top research in next ten years but usefulness to society has never been a goal of pure mathematics. I don't know if you understand the motivation for studying pure math. Personally I think it will be mostly good for research math

The "value of a degree" means the employment prospects for the degree holder. Which is going to zero if the optimistic predictions are correct, so the optimistic professors should warn their students. I understand the motivation for pure math quite well. It is about beauty, understanding things and discovering things for oneself. If computers do the work, the discovery part is gone and pure math is ruined. For the no…

Why are you saying this as if it was a bad thing? Just because software becomes better at us at something doesn't mean we can't do it out of fun (e.g. see chess community for example).

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But a lot of what you pay humans $500k a year for is to work with enormous existing systems that an LLM cannot understand just yet. Optimizing small libraries and implementing fast functions though is a huge improvement in any programmer's toolbox.

Can’t Gemini work with a million+ input tokens?

Yes, but its reasoning ability is extremely poor in my experience with real world programming tasks. I’m talking about stuff that Claude3.5 Sonnet handles easily, and GPT4o can also handle if it can fit in its smaller context window, where Gemini 1.5 pro just completely fails.

Bigger context is definitely helpful, but not if it comes at the expense of reasoning/analytical ability. I’m always a bit puzzled why people stress the importance of these “needle in a haystack” tests where the model has to find one specific thing in a huge document. That seems far less relevant to me in terms of usefulness in the real world.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sort of problems do you solve? I tried to use it. I really did. I've been working on a tree edit distance implementation base on a paper from 95. Not novel stuff. I just can't get it to output anything coherent. The code rarely runs, it's written in absolutely terrible style, it doesn't follow any good practices for performant code. I've struggled with getting it to even implement the algorithm correctly, even t…

Did you tell it that? Are you trying to converse and discuss or are you trying to one shot stuff? If it gets something wrong, tell it. Don't just stop and try another prompt. You have to think of it as another person. You can talk to it, question it, guide it. Try starting from ground zero and guiding it to the solution rather than trying to one shot your entire solution in one go. I want you to implement this kind o…

I've tried both. One time I actually tried so hard that I ran out of context, and aider just dumped me back to the main prompt. I don't think It's possible to guide it any more than that.

My problem is that the solution is right there in the paper. I just have to understand it. Without first understanding that paper, I can't possibly guide the AI towards a reasonable implementation. The process of finding the implementation is exactly the understanding of the paper, and the AI just doesn't help me with that. In fact, all too often I would ask it to make some minor change, and it would start making random changes all over the file, completely destroying my mental model of how the program worked. Making it change that back completely pulls me out of the problem.

When it's a junior at my job, at least I can feel like I'm developing a person. They retain the conversation and culture I impart as part of the problem solving process. When I struggle against the computer, it's just a waste of my time. It's not learning anything.

I'm still really curious what you're doing with it.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I entirely agree about their utility. HN, and the internet in general, have become just an ocean of reactionary sandbagging and blather about how "useless" LLMs are. Meanwhile, in the real world, I've found that I haven't written a line of code in weeks. Just paragraphs of text that specify what I want and then guidance through and around pitfalls in a simple iterative loop of useful working code. It's entirely a lea…

> Much Much more productive world by just knuckling down and learning how to do the work. The fact everyone that say they've become more productive with LLMs won't say how exactly. I can talk about how VIM have make it more enjoyable to edit code (keybinding and motions), how Emacs is a good environment around text tooling (lisp machine), how I use technical books to further my learning (so many great books out here)…

Or people say "I've been pumping out thousands of lines of perfectly good code by writing paragraphs and paragraphs of text explaining what I want!" its like what are you programming dog? and they will never tell you, and then you look at their github and its like a dead simple starter project.

I recently built a Brainfuck compiler and TUI debugger and I tested out a few LLM's just to see if I could get some useful output regarding a few niche and complicated issues, and it just gave me garbage that looked mildly correct. Then I'm told its because I'm not prompting hard enough... I'd rather just learn how to do it at that point. Once I solve that problem, I can solve it again in the future in .25x the time.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#209
Well, one thing is clear.

Math grad students everywhere now have a benchmark to determine if Terry Tao considers them to be mediocre or incompetent.

Re: Terence Tao on O1

#210
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The important point is, I feel, that most people are not even at the level of intelligence of a "a mediocre, but not completely incompetent, graduate student." A mediocre graduate science student, especially of the sort who graduates and doesn't quit, is a very impressive individual compared to the rest of us. For "us", having such a level of intelligence available as an assistant throughout the day is a massive life…

>A mediocre graduate science student, especially of the sort who graduates and doesn't quit, is a very impressive individual compared to the rest of us. Incorrect. University graduates shows a good work ethic, a certain character and a ability to manage time. It's not a measure of being better than the rest of humanity. Also, it's not a good measure of intelligence. If you only want to view the world through credenti…

Here are the key points outlining why thewanderer1983's response misinterprets noch's comment and contains inaccuracies:

    Misinterpretation of the Original Point:
        Intelligence vs. Moral Superiority: Noch discusses the intelligence level of a mediocre graduate science student compared to the general population. Thewanderer1983 misreads this as a claim of moral or inherent superiority over "the rest of humanity," which was not implied.

    Conflation of Educational Levels:
        University Graduates vs. Graduate Students: The response conflates undergraduate university graduates with graduate science students. Noch specifically refers to graduate students who have pursued advanced degrees, which typically require higher levels of specialization and intellectual rigor.

    Incorrect Assessment of Intelligence Measures:
        Graduate Studies as a Measure of Intelligence: Successfully completing graduate studies, especially in science, often requires significant intellectual capability. Dismissing this as "not a good measure of intelligence" overlooks the challenges inherent in advanced academic work.

    Irrelevant Focus on Credentials and Industry Practices:
        Credentials vs. Intelligence Discussion: Noch's comment centers on intelligence levels, not merely on holding credentials. Bringing up how industry values experience over degrees shifts the focus away from the original discussion about intelligence.

    Unfounded Assumptions About Noch's Background:
        Ad Hominem Attack: Suggesting that Noch hasn't been to university is an unfounded personal assumption that does not contribute to the argument and detracts from a respectful discourse.

    Introduction of the 'Elite Class' Notion:
        Straw Man Argument: Thewanderer1983 introduces the concept of an "elite class," which Noch did not mention. This misrepresents the original comment and argues against a point that wasn't made.

    Overgeneralizations About Academia and Industry:
        Academia's Recognition of Intelligence: Claiming that academics don't consider intelligence until one has a Ph.D. and years of work is an overgeneralization. Intelligence is recognized and valued at various academic levels.
        Industry's View on Graduates: Stating that industry only uses graduates as an entry requirement ignores the significant roles that advanced degree holders often play in innovation and leadership within industries.

    Ignoring the Core Benefit Highlighted:
        AI as a Life Upgrade: Noch emphasizes how access to AI with the intelligence level of a graduate student is a substantial benefit for most people. Thewanderer1983 fails to address this key point, instead focusing on unrelated issues.

    Misunderstanding of the Value of Graduate Education:
        Work Ethic vs. Intellectual Achievement: While a good work ethic is important, graduate education in science also demands high intellectual capability, critical thinking, and problem-solving skills.

    Logical Fallacies:
        Red Herring: The discussion about industry preferences and academic credentials diverts from the main argument about the intelligence level of graduate students.
        Ad Hominem: Attacking Noch's presumed lack of university experience instead of addressing the argument presented.
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