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Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

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Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#21
post #11

> So why quit? Three reasons. First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. This isn’t a dig: there’s money to be made razoring a thin slice off a huge market, and there’s certainly less risk in that than there is building a market from scratch. But it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understa…

Suspect that a core reason for Jerry's PoV is that the dynamics of the (zeitgeist-related) software industry do not currently favor small teams. That's counter to the ethos of Silicon Valley and it's guy-in-a-garage mythology.

Jerry would've been 14 around 1980, plus or minus a couple of years, which would've been in the heyday of personal computing. TRS-80s, Apple IIs, the IBM PC, its clones, etc.

Then, and for the next 40-odd years, software was king (read: capital-light). And anybody could write software.

LLMs are much less egalitarian.

Can anyone write an LLM? Yes.

Can anyone train an LLM that customers will want? A few. But most will need a few Ms, maybe even some Bs.

Hence the AppAmaGooSoft benefactors and Jerry's complaint about the status-quo.

Software-like economic dynamics will return, but it'll take a while, and until they do, it'll be much less morally satisfying to be a VC (in software) than it has over the last 40 years.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#23
Jerry Neumann is a cornerstone of the New York scene. He was helpful to anyone and everyone, with or without investment. He taught a class at Columbia that was the only practical technology entrepreneurship course in NYC for the longest time. His kindness and generosity were matched by his immense curiosity and pioneering spirit. His fund also had the best website in the game (for the longest time, a terminal emulator). Congrats Jerry on one of the best careers in VC. Thanks for showing so many that you can just do things your way and put integrity over hype every step of the way.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#24

> If it were true that financiers on the whole make profits slowly for years and then, every once in a while, lose them all and more in sudden “black swan” events, then there should be some way to lose money slowly for years and then suddenly make it all back and more. Black swans are awful in traditional finance, but they’re the winning lottery ticket in venture capital. Isn't this what every VC is doing? This is wh…

Specifically, he's not just investing in startups, but investing in ones that have a factor that is either unknown or unknowable. That's a different strategy from YC's "Invest in promising founders" or the typical VC "Invest in early stage startups with good metrics".

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#25

If the PC is dead, it's because of SaaS VC's investing in paywalled and members-only web apps, instead of creative tools that push the boundaries of personal computing.

Fully agreed. The rentiers have squeezed all the juice they can, and never understood what was amazing about personal computing in the first place.

(nb. I am casting no aspersions at the author of the letter; I know nothing about him. Just sharing frustration at what has happened to the industry over the years.)

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#26
Fantastically written article by someone who doesn’t realize (or articulate?) that they were part of a terribly unique, terribly exploitative movement that is reaching its natural conclusion.

  And, of course, I was lucky. Two of the fifty companies I backed are now among the 30 largest software companies in the world. And my IRR from inception has been consistently above 50% per year…for fifteen years. Of course, my sample size is too small to prove anything, but every venture firm’s sample size is too small to prove anything. I don’t know, really, if it was luck or thinking differently that made a difference. It doesn’t matter to me anymore. You can decide.
It’s both, of course! But entertaining the notion that it might be all skill seems dishonest to yourself, IMHO. Investing makes money because that’s how literally everything is setup in our world, and this person was in a unique position to personally assess their investment targets along financial lines in a context where that mattered more than it ever has.

This person just seems more self-aware than most about their strategy (“unicorns!!1!”), while paradoxically being very unaware about their own position within the world (they’re very much an economist, even if they lack the training) and history (the reason computers seem to be “supporting the status quo” instead of disrupting socioeconomic systems is very much something that everyone should have seen coming).

  Right now I have enough money to do what I want. I don’t have enough money that other people do what I want. To me that sounds like the perfect place to be.
Beautifully said, really profound thought. This is really the distillation of what socialism promises to strive towards, in my eyes; prosperity enough for personal liberty, without the goal of hierarchy.

  On dark days I think of what Jung said in his memoirs: “Only if we know that the thing that truly matters is the infinite can we avoid fixing our interests upon futilities…” My view of the infinite is probably different than Jung’s, but I think he’s right: the only way to avoid feeling like your work is pointless is to contribute to something much larger than yourself. 
Another beautifully worded thought, and I wish them Godspeed on this journey. This is the only path that doesn’t end in futility, as far as I can see. I will say, if this is your mindset, be careful not to fall prey to what Hegel would call “a bad infinity” — a single technology, project, or social mechanism that you invest your entire vision of the future in, kinda like thinking of infinity as some specific really big number (a common practice!). True (“good”) infinity is not an object: it is a process, a practice, a dialectical structure that you employ in the limit. It is perpetually approaching the ethos of planting trees whose shade you will never know, not finding the perfect tree to plant.

In the context of pro-social technical contributions in 2024, I think this simply means that you need to buckle down, swallow your pride for a second/month/year, and identify others who are (trying to be-) living the way you think is necessary so that you can learn their motivations and methods, and of course what they need that you can help with. We have been incredibly lucky to be the puzzle-solving class at a time when that was uniquely profitable, but I think humility is necessary when considering these broader questions. I’m a fan of philosophy and cooperative syndicalism, but I’m sure there’s optimistic prosocial groups out there for everybody, if you look deeply enough.

Jeez that was long, whoops — and I’m just some kid so probably wasted breath. Thanks for sharing OP, will be thinking about this fella for a while… again, Godspeed. I’ll leave anyone bored enough to read this far with a better writer than I:

  To consider some Being-there as it is in the absolute just consists in saying of it: of course we have spoken of it just now as if it were something, but in the absolute, the A=A, there is nothing of the sort; in the absolute everything is one. To pit this single insight, that in the absolute everything is the same, against discriminating and fulfilled cognition, or cognition seeking and demanding fulfilment—or to pass off its absolute as the night in which, as the saying goes, all cows are black—this is the naiveté of emptiness of cognition.
- Hegel, On Scientific Cognition (the preface to The Phenomenology of Geist)

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#27
post #11

> So why quit? Three reasons. First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. This isn’t a dig: there’s money to be made razoring a thin slice off a huge market, and there’s certainly less risk in that than there is building a market from scratch. But it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understa…

I would argue what has changed is structural, not technological.

As our age continues to gild itself to further extremes everyday, I just don’t think there’s space to use small groups of optimistic hackers to bring bright new things to humanity through risk-prone startups. There’s too much on the line, too much accumulated power and inertia. LLM-powered cognitive systems are not going to be an iPhone moment that changes some social practices and brings some daily utility, but rather.. idk, a railroad moment, I guess. A fundamental interruption to our society and economy. A new era, for better or for worse. I really don’t think the Silicon Valley playbook will see much effective use in this new context.

I applaud him for looking for a way to keep that dream alive in changing times! Hopefully he updates the rest of his when he finds some answers ;)

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#28
post #3

> First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. ... it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understand everything there was to know about computers, because this was something that could radically improve people’s lives, ... it’s just maintaining the current status quo. It just feels, I don’t know…

Don't get me wrong. I love 3D printing. Unfortunately, the tech I am working with, FDM, is just the most boring technology you could think of. Really, it's just a hot glue gun guided by a computer. Apparently, it's only until after 3D printers become widespread that they invented a hand tool version of 3D printing.

Anyway, a lot of it, the majority of the coolness in 3D printing are the designs. On its own, 3D printing is mildly useful. Learn CAD. That's something really useful there. Then there's other skills such as electronics that would make 3D printing way cooler.

It's a cool hobby, but one that won't replace something like woodworking. It's just different and have their own pro and con. Same thing for manufacturing. It won't displace entirely general subtractive manufacturing. It has its own niches and pro and con.

On LLVM and LLM, they are indeed impressive, much more so than the boring technology of 3D printing. But after the tech demo? I am ambivalent about it.

Cool. Whatever. I prefer creating things and learning technology and science that help me improve my skills at learning things. If using LLM is a skill that isn't just prompt engineering, I might be more open to it.

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like CAD designs? Or 3D printer manufacturing? Is 3D printing creating any work?

A lot still needs to be done to make the design pipeline accessible to normal people. Any clown can set up a bambu and print objects they find/buy online, but it's a huge learning curve to get from that point to being able to actually create your own parts, especially stuff that integrates with the complex shapes of some existing object. Recent examples from my life include wanting mounts for flashlights, a thing to…

That would be an application for VR goggles, and it seems Adobe has Medium for that. https://www.adobe.com/products/medium.html

Re: Jerry Neumann: Resignation Letter

#30
post #11

> So why quit? Three reasons. First, I’ve felt for a few years now that the startups I’m seeing don’t seem so much like progress as just shopkeeping. This isn’t a dig: there’s money to be made razoring a thin slice off a huge market, and there’s certainly less risk in that than there is building a market from scratch. But it’s just not that interesting. The excitement I had as a 14-year old in 1979 trying to understa…

Suspect that a core reason for Jerry's PoV is that the dynamics of the (zeitgeist-related) software industry do not currently favor small teams. That's counter to the ethos of Silicon Valley and it's guy-in-a-garage mythology. Jerry would've been 14 around 1980, plus or minus a couple of years, which would've been in the heyday of personal computing. TRS-80s, Apple IIs, the IBM PC, its clones, etc. Then, and for the…

Nah, you and the parent comment to you are not quite there.

It really isn’t exciting because the technological shifts have already happened. The “Industrial Revolution” has ended.

There’s no remaining industry that isn’t served by plenty of software and hardware solutions.

The Internet is done, it exists. Smartphones are done, computers are done, cloud computing is done, and that’s about as good as it gets.

AI is just the next tech industry house of cards that followed previous farces that were meant to stir up investment. When gathering data wasn’t profitable enough, big data came along. When big data didn’t lead to enough profitable insights, AI came along. Each new technology promises the moon but they really onmy prodiundly benefit the companies making digital pickaxes.

Now you have every company under sun releasing AI products where they have so little clue what problem they’re supposed to solve that they just call it “[Company Name] AI.”

That’s because the problems are solved. There’s a CRUD app for everything. It’s the end.

This video sums it up pretty well if you ask me: https://youtu.be/pOuBCk8XMC8

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