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Where has all the money in the world gone?

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Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#121
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to explain why printing a lot of money would cause inflation in the first place. What GP is saying is that if the owners of treasuries were unhappy with those treasuries and preferred holding on to cash, the government could just create that cash and nothing would change. This would not change prices, since if the owners of treasuries just swapped those treasuries for cash, businesses would not see their dem…

What do you mean nothing would change? If the Federal Reserve all of the sudden prints 10% of the dollars in existence to pay the US's debt, won't that devalue everyone else's salaries and such by around 10%?

No it would devalue them by much more

Everyone would stop accepting $ since there was a risk that the government would print 20% next month. The value of the US $ would crash as other countries suddenly stopped accepting it or wanted much more of it to cover the risk - so the price of imports would rise.

The price of oil would soar (in $) or only be available from some markets if you paid in euro/gold.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a pejorative among conservatives, not among liberals.

Ironically that liberal is also pejorative in the USA

Also only among conservatives; don't paint everyone with that brush. They are only half the USA.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money is objectively valueless and only subjectively has value depending on circumstance. Inflating away debt or printing your way out of debt are not actually methods of repayment. If creditors thought that the US would just print more money to pay off its debts then they would ask for much, much higher interest rates or just not lend money. Printing your way out of debt is a sure fire way to end up in a hyper-infla…

Printing money != inflation - at least given a modern understanding of inflation, where inflation is defined as a change in the price level. What is it that causes prices to change? Ultimately, prices in the real economy are changed by producers and vendors based on signals that they receive. The only signals that really matter in that regard are (a) cost of supply and labor, and (b) demand for their product. So now…

If the fed printed 10x the current money supply in dollars and handed them out to everyone, prices wouldn't change?

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#124
post #107
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, the original point of EU was to disincentivize France and Germany from going into yet another war on resources. Lots of other good (but sometimes confusing) structure has since been built on that foundation, but to me that original point is already enough for keeping the Union around. Disclaimer: some of my current open source work is supported financially by the EU

For context, I'm an American; I've read a bit of history, and I have a very American perspective on the last two world wars; Like most people my age, both of my grandfathers fought in world war two, and like most people, I place more emotional weight on stories told me by family members than accounts written by people on the other side, so my view of European politics is biased in a certain direction, and I don't hav…

Okay, mine sounds a bit racist too. Well, actually I think it really does a lot. But I don't really care about what nation is what and stuff, because it all depends on the person doing shit and stuff. Also people are mostly thinking pretty global these days, especially here. So I guess we can assume that especially people on Hacker News don't really waste their energy on such stupid things.

It's basically what I get from the media and stuff. You know.... whatever country you live in. They want to tell you that you are great, should be proud and only talk about other's problems. So usually it's best to watch foreign medias to get a good (or pessimistic) view on your country.

Actually. Sorry, if that sounds plain, but from my perspective the bigger fear is that the US or China are taking over.

Maybe it helps to see Europe more like the states, just still more decentralized. I never really thought about this. In fact this comparison comes from a now US citizen.

Of course Germany and France (as well as UK, but they don't really care too much about the EU anyway) are like two strong US states. There may be so rivalry, but with EU and stuff they have the same goals.

It isn't like people in US think that some state is going to take over, right?

And one doesn't really have to fear much, if it isn't by means of war.

I am not from France, so no idea, how exactly they feel, but you have to keep in mind that the "constitution" of the EU basically grants everyone very equal voting rights. In fact smaller countries would have gotten even more votes if they hadn't killed it off.

There also is no dictator, not even someone in sight. From a democratic point of view Europe's distribution of power is far more even that for example what you see in the US, especially with the recent laws. There is no single person in Europe that has as much privileges as the US president for example.

Lets pretend Germany would really take the lead and stuff making Europe one big Germany this wouldn't really harm anyone.

So that's why people here are more afraid of a state like the US, which invests way more money (and I speak about percentage) into military than every other nation and which also has a lot of power with IWF, world bank (which aren't even really governmental/democratic) and where they have pretty strong nationalism, etc.

Now, nobody really fears the US and stuff. Actually the opposite is partly true. They see how the US struggles with debts, old infrastructure, loosing power to China, etc.

What I want to say with all of this is that things like that are more likely to go on in people's heads.

And I know this sounded kinda bad, but I actually heard the "US is struggling with own problems and soon isn't a world power anymore. That's why they do war and tell others about how to do their economy" quite often lately. Just a few days ago they even showed on the news how all the infrastructure built in sixties makes problems in the US. I guess it was kinda exaggerated, but it sounded like it is a poor country. What I want to say with this is that countries are really, really complex. You can't really say general things about them, cause every time you try to you actually say something that's wrong.

So, maybe there are lots of people fearing Germany and I just don't see them. The only thing I can say is that whenever they show the heads of Germany and France they at least pretend to not have any problems with each other and they do it really well.

Even if that wasn't a clear answer I hope that helped a bit. Basically the only thing that people worry about currently are Greece, Spain and Italy. Maybe it even is too much. They'd be doing well, if there was no worry. They "just" have the problem of everyone worrying, so they don't get any loans, people pull their money from these countries and this creates troubles and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

To come back to the topic a bit. It's pretty much what all these rating agencies do. They say: This country may have troubles to pay back their debts, which causes them to have high interests and so it actually becomes true.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#125
post #2

The fundamental problem is that the monetary systems of the modern world are all designed on the Wile E. Coyote principle. As long as you never look down, the system works. In the U.S. there is ~$14 trillion in government debt. There exists tens of trillion more in private debt. But only $2 trillion exists in bonafide, actual, real honest-to-goodness dollars (I'm including in that count accounts at the federal reserv…

Not to fear. At ACME, we are developing a solution. You will be able to look down with no adverse effects.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#126
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to explain why printing a lot of money would cause inflation in the first place. What GP is saying is that if the owners of treasuries were unhappy with those treasuries and preferred holding on to cash, the government could just create that cash and nothing would change. This would not change prices, since if the owners of treasuries just swapped those treasuries for cash, businesses would not see their dem…

What do you mean nothing would change? If the Federal Reserve all of the sudden prints 10% of the dollars in existence to pay the US's debt, won't that devalue everyone else's salaries and such by around 10%?

That depends on what happens with those dollars. I guess you can best sum it up like this:

Printing money is not inflationary, but spending money can be.

Those 14 trillion USD in government debt is held in bonds precisely because those wealthy enough to own them do not want to spend them. So if, all of a sudden, the Fed prints a lot of dollar bills to pay the US debt, what this really means at an operational level is that they print those dollar bills to buy treasuries on the open market and/or buy directly from the government.

This simply means that the demand for treasuries increases, which drives up the price of treasuries, which is equivalent to driving down the interest rate on treasuries.

To sum it up: if the Fed does what you say, the interest rates will drop further closer to zero, but that's pretty much all that will happen.

Now if you think that decreasing interest rates can have secondary effects, then we can talk about those. But given that the interest rate is almost 0% already anyway, it seems unlikely that a small downward change would have a big economic impact.

Perhaps you're confusing paying back the debt with actual spending. Paying back the debt is simply an asset/liability swap that doesn't change anybody's wealth, and therefore cannot have inflationary effects. Actual spending is something else, and can be inflationary - though in the current economic climate, you could probably increase government spending significantly (by a trillion or so per year) without creating inflationary trouble.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#127
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

imho you forgot to mention the key difference between US and Europe. The US can print money because there is still demand in buying $. This demand is an artificial one caused by the petro-$, the binding of every oil purchase to $. So everybody involved in oil trading has to purchase $ to purchase oil! Iraq and Iran threatend to sell oil in €, for several reasons, they couldn't and didn't deliver, unfortunatly. The BR…

You are wrong. http://www.pkarchive.org/economy/NothingforMoney.html

That link somewhat misleadingly downplays the role of other dollar-denominated assets held by non-US. Now it is true that the fact that trillions of USDs are held in treasuries by other countries (China, Japan, etc.) cannot significantly affect the interest paid on those treasuries, because this interest rate is largely a result of Fed monetary policy.

On the other hand, it is very obvious that the fact that the Chinese government is buying up treasuries is what prevents the USD from dropping versus the RMB. So China is effectively giving the US a whole bunch of real goods for free, by buying up those treasuries. This may be irrelevant from the financial perspective, but in real terms, this is a huge benefit for the US.

That said, the fact that China buys lots of USD doesn't have anything to do with the whole petro-dollar thing. It just so happens that their industry is geared towards exporting to the US, and it is not possible for them to restructure their industry quickly. So in a sense, the article is still correct on the whole petro-dollar front, but misleading in others.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#128
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It goes beyond that. Think about how very tenuous ordinary civilization is. Think about what would happen if you suddenly turned into a psychopath. How easy it would be to kill so many people around you. Jam a pen in someone's neck and they're dead. How easy would it be for the guy standing behind you in line to take your life? And that applies to everyone around you all the time. Every second of every day we are put…

It's twisted but I always wonder the same thing. Why don't psychopaths "get" more people? If someone rings my doorbell I answer the door, I expect the person on the other side to be a rational human being. It wouldn't be too hard for the other person to just bum-rush me with a knife and take me out. I think there may be an evolutionary factor involved, easier to survive in a group so there is an incentive not to harm…

Pyschopaths that twisted wouldn't get very far. It's the same thing with a disease; if it's very lethal and highly contagious, it's not actually very dangerous, because it will kill most carriers before it gets a chance to spread.

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Printing money != inflation - at least given a modern understanding of inflation, where inflation is defined as a change in the price level. What is it that causes prices to change? Ultimately, prices in the real economy are changed by producers and vendors based on signals that they receive. The only signals that really matter in that regard are (a) cost of supply and labor, and (b) demand for their product. So now…

If the fed printed 10x the current money supply in dollars and handed them out to everyone, prices wouldn't change?

Clearly in this scenario, people would have more available money and therefore likely spend more. This additional spending could cause inflation.

This is very different from what InclinedPlane was talking about, namely paying back the debt by just printing money. And I'm not just talking theory here, but empirical observation, because this has already happened!

That's what QE is all about. The Fed creates a lot of money to buy treasuries, which is (from the perspective of the private sector) equivalent to printing money to pay back the debt. That hasn't caused inflation, and the reason for that is very simple. From the point of view of the private sector, exchanging treasuries for money is simply an asset swap. It minimally affects the yield curve, but that's it. The purchasing power of everybody stays the same, and therefore aggregate demand stays the same, hence no inflation.

Compare that to your scenario, in which the purchasing power of everybody is increased significantly, hence most likely aggregate demand would increase significantly, likely causing inflation. Very different scenarios with very different outcomes.

To sum it up: printing money is not inflationary. Spending can be inflationary, but then it doesn't matter who is doing the spending (imagine the richest 500 people in the US suddenly spending all their wealth - that would cause quite the spike in inflation!).

Re: Where has all the money in the world gone?

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So everybody involved in oil trading has to purchase $ to purchase oil! I don't really understand why this is considered so important. Big deal, so oil is priced in dollars. Say I have some Euros and want to buy €100 worth of oil. I trade the €100 for $X, buy $X worth of oil 100 microseconds later, and now I have the €100 worth of oil I wanted. What difference did it make to me if $X was $0.01 or $10,000? I'm trying…

But you need currency to buy oil. And the result is an "artificial" stronger dollar and a weaker euro - a different exchange rate - compared with if you could purchase oil in euro

So the real problem is that currency has a value all its own, entirely apart from what goods and services it can buy. As a result, there's no way to blindly equate X in one currency with Y in another, because the very act of exchanging one for the other affects their relative values. Transactions that should be purely economic in nature have unavoidable political undertones.

I see.

Wow, that's broken.

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