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Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

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Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#41

Post by ajb »

frognumber wrote: post #9
quibono wrote: post #3

I'm amazed that these welds can hold ship sections like that. I wonder if this is regulated in any way? E.g. class and quality of welds required etc. On another note, a 2 billion investment to build a ship seems absolutely crazy. How long does it take to make that kind of money back, and how long does a ship need to sail to pay itself back?

* Regulation is non-existent in the cruise industry. You shop for the venue with the most lax regulations of the ≈200 countries in the world. * The equivalent is insurance. Insuring a $2B ship carries pretty good due diligence. A ship simply failing is rare. Of course, ship insurance doesn't care about employee rights, safe food, medical care, or other things one might expect to keep people safe. It's about protectin…

Very informative, thanks.

"none having to do with the ship sinking Titanic-style."

It's rare, but not nonexistent. The Costa Concordia springs to mind. Schettino ended up with all the blame, but it did seem to be that there was some degree of institutional incompetence as well. But not with the construction AFAIK

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#42

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #28
ta1243 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got to factor in deprecation. If the vessel cost $2b and lasts 20 years you need to repay $200m a year to repay the amount over 20 years. However I suspect 8% would be far higher that the rate they'd get. You'd also have to include maintenence costs, and also the reduction in revenue as it gets older (people will presumably not pay as much to travel on an older ship than a newer one), or the refurb costs you'l…

I feel like it’s just easier to use the existing cruise companies’ public financials. It looks like 10% to 15% are the real world profit margins, but with quite a bit of volatility. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RCL/royal-caribbea... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CCL/carnival/profi... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NCLH/norwegian-cru...

A cruise company is incentivised to say things like depreciation are less than they are, so the company's numbers look better than they actually are.

Additionally, it's very rare for a company to own a ship for its entire lifetime.

The way they calculate depreciation now is based on resale value.

I wonder what happens to that in a world where interest rates AREN'T negative in real terms anymore...

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#43

Post by scarab92 »

nixass wrote: post #39
scarab92 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s times I want to explore, and there’s times I just want to do nothing. Cruises are good for when I want to do nothing for a while.

> Cruises are good for when I want to do nothing for a while. Weird way to spend not-insignificant money on but to each their own

I find I get somewhat anxious being at home and not doing anything, whereas it’s just psychologically easier in the middle of the ocean.

I’m happy to pay the cost to be in an environment that I can actually relax in.

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#44

Post by verhaust »

jajko wrote: post #25
djtango wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't much like cruises but I do really enjoy being out at sea and would be more than happy to "raw dog" (in gen z parlance) some trips out at sea.

There are many ways to enjoy seas, cruise ships are by far the worst. As per people who worked on those, they are mostly for people who simply don't know how to enjoy life well but have money, are quiet alcoholics, and/or suffer massive loneliness. You can do amazing traveling experiences for less, you are in control of your own life and what happens next and you will feel like spending much more time when discoverin…

I don't get this kind of vitriol toward cruise goers. I like to plan trips as an adventure like you and 6 years ago had zero desire to ever go on a cruise. I ended up going on one because my in-laws wanted to do a European cruise with extended family for their retirement celebration. They don't drink, they enjoy their life and got to celebrate with family so no loneliness. They are just older and don't have the physicality or mental desire to plan and go on adventures anymore. They wanted a more catered experience for their celebration.

I actually enjoyed the cruise way more than I thought I would. The cruise allowed people to do what they want. My in-laws and others with less physical ability could go on bus tours or taxi around. People like me that preferred adventure can spend 8 hours walking through different nooks and crannies of the city. Being on deck in an open sea was nice and peaceful. I had been to Europe a few times before, but the cruise allowed me to go and walk around port cities that I wouldn't have been able to go to otherwise, without substantially more cost. Each with some interesting bits to walk through and good food to eat. It was a good, quick, demo for whether I wanted to plan a future trip to that city.

If I were planning a trip now for my immediate fanily, I wouldn't do a cruise. I do not spew vitriol and insults at those that do though. Most of them aren't as pathetic as you have been led to think.

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#46

Post by ReptileMan »

frognumber wrote: post #9
quibono wrote: post #3

I'm amazed that these welds can hold ship sections like that. I wonder if this is regulated in any way? E.g. class and quality of welds required etc. On another note, a 2 billion investment to build a ship seems absolutely crazy. How long does it take to make that kind of money back, and how long does a ship need to sail to pay itself back?

* Regulation is non-existent in the cruise industry. You shop for the venue with the most lax regulations of the ≈200 countries in the world. * The equivalent is insurance. Insuring a $2B ship carries pretty good due diligence. A ship simply failing is rare. Of course, ship insurance doesn't care about employee rights, safe food, medical care, or other things one might expect to keep people safe. It's about protectin…

IIRC when watching documentary about the second to last gen nuclear submarines - engineers figured out that welds themselves were stronger than the steel plates themselves.

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#47

Post by chasil »

icegreentea2 wrote: post #40
protocolture wrote: post #4

I worked on a cruise ship below decks, once, for 3 hours, and I swore I would never take a cruise. Take the dirtiest hotel you have ever been in, and then ensure you cant leave it for days at a time. It interests me that demand is increasing but I suspect thats just good advertising.

Cruises hit a spot of: * All the fun and "not thinking" of an all-inclusive resort (though obviously only if you pay for the drink packages) on land * Generally cheaper than all inclusive resorts on mainland USA (I'm not as familiar with Europe) * Competitive on pricing with all inclusive resorts in the Caribbean/Mexico * Get to skip out on flight to the Caribbean/Mexico * Get to skip out out of the overt semi-coloni…

The big draw for me was that my phone wouldn't work.

Peers had a habit of calling me for non-critical, non-production problems. The worst was Mardi Gras, where I'm on Bourbon Street for Fat Tuesday, and my operations head calls me with an analyst on the line and burns fifteen minutes with a problem that turned out to be development coding.

My phone did occasionally explode with voicemails and texts when I got back to port.

Some of my peers have been forced to take a corporate credit card to pay for internet access on their ship.

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#49

Post by lotsofpulp »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #42
lotsofpulp wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like it’s just easier to use the existing cruise companies’ public financials. It looks like 10% to 15% are the real world profit margins, but with quite a bit of volatility. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RCL/royal-caribbea... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CCL/carnival/profi... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NCLH/norwegian-cru...

A cruise company is incentivised to say things like depreciation are less than they are, so the company's numbers look better than they actually are. Additionally, it's very rare for a company to own a ship for its entire lifetime. The way they calculate depreciation now is based on resale value. I wonder what happens to that in a world where interest rates AREN'T negative in real terms anymore...

How long does this supposed fraud take to show up? Carnival and Caribbean have been doing business for decades, and Norwegian has been public since 2011.

Surely, it would have impacted the bottom line by now at at least one of those 3 businesses.

Re: Cruise ships chopped in half are a license to print money

#50

Post by sva_ »

EnigmaFlare wrote: post #21
ge96 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tape an ipad to a wall, loop an ocean scene... Window

Parallax, sunlight intensity, directionality, heat. It's a pity we don't have affordable (or even any?) artificial windows that even emulate the sun. Just think how much more economically buildings could be made if they had effective fake windows.

One step away from a real human factory farm
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