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Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

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Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#381
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is another bit to this which is cargo cult tendencies. Basically DevOps is a great idea under certain circumstances and works well for specific people in that role. Realistically if you take a top talent engineer they can likely step into any of the three roles or even some others and be successful. Having the synergy of one person being responsible for the boundary between two roles then makes your ROI…

> There is no methodology (organizational, programming, testing, etc.) that can make excellence out of mediocrity. That’s a pretty toxic statement. No one was born writing perfect code, every one of us needed to learn. An organizational culture that rewards learning is the way to produce an organization that produces excellent software. It doesn’t matter how excellent someone is if the organization puts them to work…

>> That’s a pretty toxic statement

While we might not like it to be true, no amount of process can turn the average person into a Michael Jordan, a Jimmy Hendrix or a Leo Tolstoy. Assuming that software engineering talent is somehow a uniform distribution and not a normal one like every other human skill is likely incorrect. Don't conflate "toxic" with "true".

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#382
post #329
post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some say NIMBY's other say water supply. "Water supply issues are already holding back housing development around the city. In its previous draft water resources management plan, Cambridge Water failed to demonstrate that there was enough to supply all of the new properties in the emerging local plan without risk of deterioration. The Environment Agency recently confirmed that it had formally objected to five large h…

The NIMBYs are the ones trying to stop the reservoir from being built. They created the problem they're complaining about. A big hole in the ground with water in it is not a complicated piece of infrastructure, but the planning system is so dysfunctional and veto-friendly that the construction timeline has been pushed out into the 2030s, in the best case. Previous generations got them done in two years flat. It is an…

Just adding onto this because I can't edit: it beggars belief that water supply would ever be a limiting factor for urban growth in England. It's preposterous that this is even an issue. Yes, Cambridgeshire is the driest region in the country, but that's only a relative thing! It still gets quite a lot of rain! Other countries have far less rainfall in absolute terms and they grow their cities just fine, because they build reservoirs and dams and water desalination plants. Nature has not forced this situation on us, we are simply choosing not to build things.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#383
post #359
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet we are told that competition will determine that capital and talent will flow towards that most efficient organisations over time. Thus, surely organisations that eschewed this practice would emerge and dominate? So, either capitalism doesn't work, or your thesis isn't quite right... I have two other counters to offer, first we have seen GDP per capita gradually increasing in major economies for the last 50 y…

> And yet we are told that competition will determine that capital and talent will flow towards that most efficient organisations over time. Thus, surely organisations that eschewed this practice would emerge and dominate? That’s really not how competition works in practice. Verizon and AT&T are a mess internally but their competitors where worse. GDP per capita has a lot more to do with automation than individual wo…

As long as you have the economies of scale and huge barriers to entry, companies can stay deeply dysfunctional without getting outcompeted. Especially when the same managers rotate between them all and introduce the "best practices" everywhere.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#384
post #346
post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Startup architecture and a 500+ engineer org's architecture are fundamentally different Certainly. The startup architecture is often better. I don’t know what exactly leads to those overcomplicated enterprise things, but I suspect its a lack of limitations.

Large org architecture is, most importantly, just much larger. The bank I worked in had 6000 _systems_. A lot of that was redundancy due to a lot of mergers and acquisitions that didn't get cleaned up (because it was really hard to do). Compare that to your typical SaaS startup, which typically has at most a couple systems.

Right. You can't run a 100 or even 1,000 person organization the same way you run a 25,000 person organization and many of the people roles are different. The 25,000 person organization can do more but it needs a lot more process to function. For example, the person just doing what they see as needing to be done in the small organization becomes a random loose cannon in the large one.

Someone mentioned DevSecOps upthread. The breaking down of organizational barriers really was more of a smaller company sort of thing. Platform Engineering and SREs are a better model of how this has evolved at scale.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> whether the decline in IT worker quality I think it entirely has to do with a generation of software people getting into the field (understandably) because it makes them a lot of money, rather than because they're passionate about software. These, by-and-large, are mediocre technical people and they tend to hire other mediocre technical people. When I look around at many of the newer startups that are popping up th…

While you have a good point, I think the experts also branched off with some unreasonable requirements. I remember reading Yegge's blog post, years ago, saying that an engineer needed to know bitwise operators, otherwise they were not good enough. I don't know. Curiosity, passion, focus, creative problem solving seem to me much more important criteria for an engineer to have, rather than bitwise operations. An engine…

This is something I have some expertise in (I run a recruiting company that uses a standardized interview, and I used to run assessments for another). It's also something I've thought a lot about.

There is absolutely truth to what you're saying. But like most obvious observations that aren't playing themselves out, there's more to it than that.

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One: curiosity, passion, and focus matter a lot. Every company that hires through us is looking for them in one form or another. But they still have to figure out a means by which to measure them.

One company thinks "passion" takes the form of "wanting to start a company someday", and worries that someone who isn't that ambitious won't be dedicated enough to push past the problems they run into. But another thinks that "passion" is someone who wants to tinker with optimizing some FPGA all night long because the platonic ideal of making a 15% more efficient circuit for a crypto node is what Real Technical Engineers do.

These companies are not just looking for passion in practice, but for "passion for".

And so you might say okay, screen for that. But the problem is that passion-for is easily faked - and is something you can easily fail to display if your personality skews the wrong way.

When I interviewed at my previous company many years ago, they asked me why I wanted to work there. I answered honestly: it seemed like a good job and that I'd be able to go home and sleep at night. This was a TERRIBLE answer that, had I done less well on other components of the interview or had they been interviewing me for more than a low-level job, would likely have disqualified me. It certainly would not have convinced them I had the passion to make something happen. But a few years later I was in the leadership of that company, and today I run a successor to it trying to carry the torch when they could not.

If you asked me the same question today about why I started a company, an honest answer would be similar: I do this business because I know it and because I enjoy its challenges, not because it's the Most Important Thing In The World To Me. I'm literally a startup founder, and I would not pass 90% of "see if someone's passionate enough to work at a startup" interview questions if I answered them honestly.

On the flip side, a socially-astute candidate who understands the culture of the company and the person they're interviewing with can easily fake these signals. There is a reason that energetic extraverts tend to do well in business - or rather, there are hundreds of reasons, and this is one of them. Social skills let you manipulate behavioral interviews to your advantage, and if you're an interviewer, you don't want candidates doing that.

So in effect, what you're doing here is replacing one shibboleth that has something to do with technical skill, with another that is more about your ability to read an interviewer and "play the game". Which do you think correlates better with technical excellence?

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And two: lots of people are curious, passionate, energetic, and not skilled.

You say that a person with those traits "will learn" everything needed. That might even be true. But "will learn" can be three years, five years, down the line.

One of the things we ask on our interview is a sort of "fizzbuzz-plus" style coding problem (you can see a similar problem - the one we send candidates to prep them - at https://www.otherbranch.com/practice-coding-problem if you want to calibrate yourself on what I'm about to say). It is not a difficult problem by any normal standard. It requires nothing more than some simple conditional logic, a class or two, and the basic syntax of the language you're using.

Many apparently-passionate, energetic, and curious engineers simply cannot do it. The example problem I linked is a bit easier than our real one, but I have reliable data on the real one, which tells me that sixty-two percent of candidates who take it do not complete even the second step.

Now, is this artificial? Yeah, but it's artificially easy. It involves little of the subtlety and complexity of real systems, by design. And yet very often we get code that (translated into the example problem I linked) is the rough equivalent of:

  print("--*-")
with no underlying data structure, or

  if (row == 1 && col == 3)
where the entire board becomes an immutable n^2 case statement that would have to be wholly rewritten if the candidate were to ever get to later steps of the problem.

Would you recommend someone who wrote that kind of code, no matter how apparently curious, passionate, or energetic they were?

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#386
post #344
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no methodology (organizational, programming, testing, etc.) that can make excellence out of mediocrity. That’s a pretty toxic statement. No one was born writing perfect code, every one of us needed to learn. An organizational culture that rewards learning is the way to produce an organization that produces excellent software. It doesn’t matter how excellent someone is if the organization puts them to work…

Sure, everyone can learn, but what leads to mediocrity is a lack of desire to learn. You can certainly structure your organisation around that and achieve great results. There’s no need for excellent tech to solve most problems. That’s ostensibly true for almost everything, because our society wouldn’t be able to survive if everything needed to be excellent.

A lot of different things can lead to mediocrity, and lack of desire to learn is only one of them.

Sometimes you want to learn, but your talents fail you.

Sometimes you want to learn, and you learn from someone who isn't good at the thing.

Sometimes you want to learn, and your environment punishes effectiveness.

Sometimes you want to learn, and you learn correctly for the wrong context.

Yes, people who give a damn about doing their job well are often good employees. But the converse is not true: many people who are not good employees do in fact care a great deal. There's no need to convert a descriptive statement about results into a moral judgement of a person's work ethic, and it's often just not factually correct to do so.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In most places in Europe, even $100k is considered a high salary I think it's worth adding here that US developers can have a much higher burden for things like health insurance. My child broke his arm this year, and we hit our very high deductible. I would like to see numbers factoring in things like public transportation, health insurance, etc., because I personally feel like EU vs US developers are a lot closer…

US big tech devs typically make 3x+ what the Euro equivalent does. A 4500 deductible isn't really materially relevant. I (a US dev) have a high deductible plan but my employer contributes substantially to it anyway.

Typically companies put about the same amount of money into the pot whatever medical plan you choose.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#388
post #99

I sometimes wonder about whether the decline in IT worker quality is down to companies trying to force more and more roles onto each worker to reduce headcount. Developers, Operations, and Security used to be dedicated roles. Then we made DevOps and some businesses took that to mean they only needed 2/3 of the headcount, rather than integrating those teams. Then we made DevSecOps, and some businesses took that to mea…

They're cutting headcount because they have no conception of how to make a good product, so reducing costs is the only of making the bottom line go up. That's across the board, from the startups whose business plan is to be acquired at all costs, to the giant tech companies, whose business plan is to get monopoly power first, then figure out how to extract money later.

Probably a lot of that is to do with the short-term profit mindset. There is tons of software that is far from optimal, breaks frequently and has a massive impact on human lives (think: medical record systems, mainframes at banks, etc.). None of it is sexy, none of it is something you can knock up a PoC for in a month, and none of it is getting the funding to fix it (instead funding is going to teams of outsourced consultants who overpromise and just increase their budgets year on year). Gen AI won't make this better I think.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#389

I sometimes wonder about whether the decline in IT worker quality is down to companies trying to force more and more roles onto each worker to reduce headcount. Developers, Operations, and Security used to be dedicated roles. Then we made DevOps and some businesses took that to mean they only needed 2/3 of the headcount, rather than integrating those teams. Then we made DevSecOps, and some businesses took that to mea…

From my experience it’s agile/scrum being poorly implemented. So many companies no longer think about quality or design. “Just build this now and ship it, we can modify it later”, not thinking about the ramifications. No thinking about design at all anymore, then having tech debt but not allocating any sprints to mitigate it.

Sometimes it feels like there is no planning... and as a consequence also no documentation. Or maybe there are tons of outdated documentation because the project is so agile that it was redesigned a few dozen times, but instead of updating the original documents and diagrams, the architects always only produced a diff "change this to this", and those diffs are randomly placed in Confluence, most of them as attached Word or PowerPoint documents.

"But developers hate to write documentation" they say. Okay genius, so why don't you hire someone who is not a developer, someone who doesn't spend their entire time sprinting from one Jira task to another, someone who could focus on understanding how the systems work and keeping the documents up to date. It would be enough to have one such person for the entire company; just don't also give them dozen extra roles that would distract them from their main purpose. "Once we hired a person like this, but they were not competent for their job and everyone complained about docs, so we gave up." Yeah, I suspect you hired the cheapest person available, and you probably kept giving them extra tasks that were always higher priority than this. But nice excuse. Okay, back to having no idea how anything works, which is not a problem because our agile developers can still somehow handle it, until they burn out and quit.

Re: Effects of Gen AI on High Skilled Work: Experiments with Software Developers

#390
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without judgement, this feels like a switch up. It seems to me that the prior author did not suggest they were necessary, but instead ambient, available, and interesting. Indeed for many they are not useful. At the same time, that might be a good indication of passion: a useless but foundational thing you learn despite having zero economic pressure to do so. In the domains you have worked on, what are examples of suc…

It is not a switch up. The author said that an engineer would find these during their journey, and I am asking when. I don't have a strongly held opinion here, I literally want to know when. I am curious about it.

Bitmasks, enumerating combinations (subsets), parsing binary data, ...
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