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Intel Honesty

stratechery.com

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Re: Intel Honesty

#401

Post by ryandrake »

Wytwwww wrote: post #384
ryandrake wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. I happen to believe that many, many people are capable of running and growing a successful business, and that the limiting factor (and the reason they haven't already) is access to capital, not some special personality trait or pedigree or family background or really any particular expertise. Definitely millions, probably tens of millions, and maybe even hundreds of millions of people are capable of sta…

> businesses that fail is a testament to how thoroughly misallocated capital is. So much capital goes to people who end up demonstrating they are incapable of deploying it. Doesn't that disprove you previous hypothesis? Unless you think that the people who are handing out the money and the ones they are handing it to are somehow exceptionally incompetent? Why would that be the case?

I am saying I think it's possible that investors use terrible and backward signals for who to invest in, and that might be an alternate explanation of the 90+% miss rate (and 1-5% unicorn rate) of a cohort of invested companies. To the point where their investment choices might be even worse than random chance. Almost like they are investing based on the inverse of what they should be. We'll never know because there is no counterfactual fund that invests in the companies nobody else invested in, to test whether they were false negatives.

Re: Intel Honesty

#402

Post by kortilla »

acdha wrote: post #289
kortilla wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you have difficulty becoming pregnant in Florida?

That’s mostly not the problem: it’s what happens if it goes wrong in ways which are guaranteed to happen for a certain percentage of women every year, and you’re no longer allowed to get medical treatment because some failed Christians couldn’t be bothered to read their own holy book (the Old Testament god is down with abortion, the New Testament one isn’t concerned with it). There are more children who used to have…

Travel to an adjacent state if you need an abortion. If you don’t have the funds to do that you aren’t smartly planning a family in the first place.

Re: Intel Honesty

#403

Post by kortilla »

DiscourseFan wrote: post #310
kortilla wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you want to call it, people want to live there.

They want a well-paying job or a better community or better schools. Nobody "wants" to move to a state just because its that state. Long term political and ecological trends won't deter short term gains for many, that's all.

Okay, nobody “wants” to live in California either by that logic.

Re: Intel Honesty

#405

Post by keepamovin »

seec wrote: post #351
keepamovin wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great indicator of how it's often presented as collaborative or even slightly-"woke" on the outside, when in reality, advancement is cutthroat. But conducted in an cliquey/politically repressive atmosphere where everyone is afraid to act like that, but when someone has the courage to start speaking their mind, the rest look to them as the one who can save the malaise from the stagnation. I wonder how it bec…

I believe that any successful company is like that. There are always people that have a vested interest in pretending otherwise but that's just to avoid other people succeeding or to present a good front. As far as I'm concerned there is no other way to get real progress; there are always a lot of pretenses on better ways to "manage" stuff but they never work because of group dynamics and basic human behavior...

So, basically -- all stick no carrot? Or am I oversimplifying :) haha ?

Re: Intel Honesty

#406

Post by benreesman »

paulmd wrote: post #399
benreesman wrote: post #194

I generally like Stratechery but this is not up to the usual standard. To the extent that CISC means anything it means “backwards compatible”. Modern ARM cores have multi-step decode and issue: to the extent that RISC means anything it means “we developed this with twenty year’s hindsight so we don’t have to do a lot in microcode yet.” In die area, in TDP, in wafer consumption, it’s just not a big cost. To the extent…

> In die area, in TDP, in wafer consumption, it’s just not a big cost. And yet we live in a world where an AI 370 processor has less than 1/4 of the single-threaded perf/w of a “totally equivalent” M3 Max processor. One of those things can’t be true. Who are you going to believe, Jim Keller or your lying eyes? And it only gets worse when you realize that he didn’t vaguely say the thing people claim he said… people ha…

I find it amusing that it was the off-the-scales "SoC" people at Apple who pioneered the new best paradigm for vector compute. Not surprising mind you, the PA Semi people are terrifying, Apple is one of the best microarchitecture firms in history.

I find this amusing because we still call them "GPU"s. NVIDIA's revenue is like 85-90% datacenter IIRC, gaming is like, anti-trust insurance or something.

The "low end" just almost always eats the "high end".

Re: Intel Honesty

#407

Post by pjmlp »

SoftTalker wrote: post #28
api wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Throughout most of the 2010s, EUV lithography was like the "year of the Linux desktop" - i.e., this year will be the year where EUV was suitable for high volume manufacturing. We need to learn to recognize the difference between something that's never going to happen for either physical or economic/social/structural reasons, and something that is just really difficult and takes a long time. I always think of this w…

I'd say Linux desktops have been good enough for a long time, but never broke into the mainstream for the reasons you cite. ChromeOS is the closest thing I guess, but outside of schools and a few other institutional uses, Chromebooks are not very popular.

Chromebooks on schools is basically a US thing, in Europe most parents buy regular computers to their kids, and only top tier schools do anything beyond having a computer room class for "lets do something on the computer today".

After the Windows XP price reductions gave the first blow to the Linux netbooks market, the tablet market finished it off, for regular consumers.

Linux VMs on macOS and Windows are "The Year of Linux Desktop".

Re: Intel Honesty

#408

Post by pjmlp »

ho_schi wrote: post #86
SoftTalker wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say Linux desktops have been good enough for a long time, but never broke into the mainstream for the reasons you cite. ChromeOS is the closest thing I guess, but outside of schools and a few other institutional uses, Chromebooks are not very popular.

Linux is not preinstalled. There are some ThinkPads* and Dells with Ubuntu or Fedora but you need to know that. And people how know will and must reinstall anyway Arch, Gentoo, Suse, Debian, Fedora or Ubuntu. The Steamdeck is an excellent proof how a full featured Linux (SteamOS is based upon Arch) is shipped well. Not a unmaintained or googlyified closed-source derivate of Linux (Android and ChromeOS). * I ordered a…

SteamDeck is only a successful by making Linux irrelevant, after all its key feature is doing Windows API translation.

SteamOS only purpose is for Valve not to pay Windows licenses.

I will consider SteamDeck a success, in games not sales, the day all top level games played on it, were actually developed for SteamOS in first place, and not Windows games running under Proton.

Re: Intel Honesty

#409

Post by pjmlp »

Wytwwww wrote: post #374
ho_schi wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Linux is not preinstalled. There are some ThinkPads* and Dells with Ubuntu or Fedora but you need to know that. And people how know will and must reinstall anyway Arch, Gentoo, Suse, Debian, Fedora or Ubuntu. The Steamdeck is an excellent proof how a full featured Linux (SteamOS is based upon Arch) is shipped well. Not a unmaintained or googlyified closed-source derivate of Linux (Android and ChromeOS). * I ordered a…

Steamdeck is a gaming console not a general purpose device from the perspective of most people (yes I know it's a standard PC and completely open but that's not something most people care about). Linux is more or less just an implementation detail. Obviously not as extreme but a bit like PS4 being BSD but I don't think it's that different from Android/ChromeOS. Arch is there just to run a completely proprietary layer…

Additionally, to note that while PlayStation, Switch, Android/NDK, have some form of POSIX support, in some cases with overlapping 3D APIs with GNU/Linux, most of the studios don't bother with GNU/Linux, and rather let Valve do the work with Proton on supporting the execution of their Windows versions.

Re: Intel Honesty

#410

Post by pjmlp »

Panzer04 wrote: post #339
UncleOxidant wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, you've got Apple, Nvidia and AMD heavily exposed to that geopolitical risk, but seemingly not willing to help lessen it by investing in US fabs. Whenever I note this people here and elsewhere say "they're smart to be fabless" but somebody's gotta run fabs and more fabs need to be run in the US and quickly. I realize industrial policy isn't in vogue these days but it might be a good idea for the future of US sem…

I thought historically companies always wanted "second sources" for things like this. Surely all the fabless semis can't be blithely running off a cliff with TSMC as their only parts source? That would be a catastrophic risk to take down the track if there's only a single vendor for advanced chips and they've decided to hike prices and collect all of the benefits alone from their advanced processes and share none of…

Globalisation in peace time happened, and everyone thought we would just be a group of friends across the globe, with occasional hotspots here and there.

Turns out, yet again we failed to learn from history of past civilizations.

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