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Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

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Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#751

Doesn't this corrupt SafeAI's safe vision just like $1,000,000,000 corrupted OpenAI's open vision? How can investment like this not transform a company's mission into eventually paying back Billions and making Billions of dollars?

Seems strange to associate profit motives with being unsafe. Yes cutting corners can lead to short term profits but many companies make safety a priority in fact and make a profit, and in fact make a profit because their product is higher quality and safer than the competitors.

Profit and lack of profit is one of the major killing forces in America today. The two are intertwined and AI mixing with that is incredibly dangerous. Like the damage AI does to artists today does not make people feel 'safe'. We just want Food and Utopia :( (ai please! think bigger! put your attention on Earth!)

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to repeatedly insist that hidden computation is a distinction of any relevance whatsoever. First of all, your understanding of the architecture itself is mistaken. A transformer can iterate endlessly because each token it produces allows it a forward pass, and each of these tokens is postpended to its input in the next inference. That's the autoregressive in autoregressive transformer, and the entire reason…

Sure - a transformer can iterate endlessly by generating tokens, but this is no substitute for iterating internally and maintaining internal context and goal-based attention. One reason why just blathering on endlessly isn't the same as thinking deeply before answering, is that it's almost impossible to maintain long-term context/attention. Try it. "Think step by step" or other attempts to prompt the model into gener…

>You don't need to morph the problem to require out-of-distribution knowledge to get it to fail

make the slight variation look different from the version it have memorized and it often passes. Sometimes it's as straightforward as just changing the names. humans have this failure mode too.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not sloppy. It just doesn't matter in the limit of training. 1. An Octopus and a Raven have wildly different brains. Both are intelligent. So just the idea that there is some "one true system" that the NN must discover or converge on is suspect. Even basic arithmetic has numerous methods. 2. In the limit of training on a diverse dataset (ie as val loss continues to go down), it will converge on the process (what…

> In the limit of training on a diverse dataset (ie as val loss continues to go down), it will converge on the process (whatever that means) or a process sufficiently robust. This is just moving the goal posts from "learning the actual process" to "any process sufficiently robust"

I didn't move anything because last i checked the term was Artificial Intelligence not Artificial exactly as a human does Intelligence

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not sloppy. It just doesn't matter in the limit of training. 1. An Octopus and a Raven have wildly different brains. Both are intelligent. So just the idea that there is some "one true system" that the NN must discover or converge on is suspect. Even basic arithmetic has numerous methods. 2. In the limit of training on a diverse dataset (ie as val loss continues to go down), it will converge on the process (what…

> whether that looks like how humans do it or not. So you agree with me that there is no guarantee it learns any representation of the actual process that produced the training data.

Sure I agree. But if that's what you're getting hung up on, i think you've missed his point entirely.

Whether the machines becomes a human brain clone or something entirely alien is irrelevant. The point is, you can't cheat reality. Statistics is not magic. You can't predict text that understands without understanding.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#756
post #742

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is your weak link. I don't think so at all. I'm personally convinced that humanity EVENTUALLY will build something more "intelligent" than human brains. > I don't see I see > You shouldn't see the progress we've made in vehicle speed and assume we can hit the speed of light There are laws of Physics that prevent us from moving faster than the speed of light. There IS a corresponding limit for computation [1],…

> Evolutionary history points towards brain size being limited by a combination of what is safe for the female hip width and also what amount of energy cost can be justified by increasing the size of the brain. If bigger brains lead to higher intelligence, why do many highly intelligent people have average-sized heads? And do they need to eat much more to fuel their high IQs? If larger brains were always better, woul…

> If bigger brains lead to higher intelligence, why do many highly intelligent people have average-sized heads?

There IS a correlation between intelligence and brain size (of about 0.3). But the human brain does a lot of things apart from what we measure as "IQ". What shows up in IQ tests tend to be mostly related to variation of the thickness of certain areas of the cortex [1].

The rest of the brain is, however, responsible from a lot of the functions that separates GPT-4 or Tesla's self driving from a human. Those are things we tend to take for granted in healthy humans, or that can show up as talents we don't think of as "intelligence".

Also, the variation in the size of human brains is relatively small, so the specifics of how a given brain is organized probably contributes to more of the total variance than absolute size.

That being said, a chimp brain is not likely to produce (adult, healthy) human level intelligence.

> And do they need to eat much more to fuel their high IQs?

That depends on the size of the brain, primarily. Human brains consume significantly more calories than a chimp brains.

> If larger brains were always better, wouldn’t female hips have evolved to accommodate them?

They did, and significantly so. In particular the part around the birth canal.

> I think human IQ might be where it is because extremely high intelligence vs. what we on average have now) often leads to fewer descendants. Less awareness of reality can lead to more "reproductive bliss."

I believe this is more of a modern phenomenon, mostly affecting women from the 20th century on. There may have been similar situations at times in the past, too. But generally, over the last several million years, human intelligence has been rising sharply.

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03064....

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#757

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We have no evidence that superintelligence will be developed. Fundamentally, we have no evidence of anything that will happen in the future. All we do is to extrapolate from the past through the present, typically using some kind of theory of how the world operates. The belief that we will eventually (whether it's this year or in 1000+ years), really only hinges on the following 3 assumptions: 1) The human brain is…

> current nets (GPT-4 generation) should have total capabilities similar or slightly better than a rat Rats don't speak

Rats can navigate the physical world, though. In terms of total capabilities, I think it's not unreasonable to rate what GPT-4 is doing at or above the total capabilities of a rat, even if they manifest in different ways.

As we continue to make models larger, and assuming that model capabilities keep up with brains that have synapse counts similar to the weights in the models, we're now 2-3 OOM from human level (possibly less).

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#758
post #731

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Fundamentally, we have no evidence of anything that will happen in the future. Yeah, by this line of thought Jesus will descend from Heaven and save us all. By the same line of fantasy, "give us billions to bring AGI", why not "gimme a billion to bring Jesus. I'll pray really hard, I promise!" It's all become a disgusting scam, effectively just religious. Believe in AGI that's all there is to it. In practice it's…

This reply seems eerily similar to folks months/years before the wright brothers proved flight was indeed possible. All the building evidence was there but people just refused to believe it was possible. I am not buying that AI right now is going to displace every job or change the world in the next 5 years but I would t bet against world impacts in that timefram. The writing is in the wall. I am old enough to rememb…

Precisely. I remember back in the late 90s, some Particle Physics papers were published that used neural nets to replace hand crafted statistical features.

While the power was not amazing, I've kind of assumed since then that scale was what would be needed.

I then half-way forgot about this, until I saw the results from Alexnet.

Since then, the capabilities of the models have generally been keeping up with how they were scaled, at least within about 1 OOM.

If that continues, the next 5-20 years are going to be perhaps the most significant in history.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#759
post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll try to argue his point. The idea that Japan would have resisted to the last man and that a massive amphibious invasion would have been required is kind of a myth. The US pacific submarine fleet had sunk the majority of the Japanese merchant marine to the point that Japan was critically low on war materiel and food. The Japanese navy had lost all of its capital ships and there was a critical shortage of personnel…

I am looking at the numbers from operation downfall that Truman and senior members of the administration looked at which had between 500,000 to 1,000,000 lives lost on the US side for a Japan invasion/defeat. 406k US soldiers lost their lives in WW2 so that would have more than tripled the deaths from its current numbers. And as for WWI and British casualties which I mentioned earlier, the British lost around 885k tr…

Yeah it would have been a bloody invasion. I'm saying it probably would not have been necessary since Japan was under siege and basically out of food already.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> superintelligence is reached i read the article but I am not sure how they know when this condition will be true. Is this obvious to ppl reading this article? is it emperor has no clothes type situation ?

They can dilute the term to whatever they want. I think when the pressure to release becomes too high, they can just stick a patch of "Superintelligence™" on their latest LLM and release it.

what do you make of ppl commenting here saying 'well they won't release till superintelligence' .

Are these ppl merely gullible or coconspirators in the scam ?

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