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Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

reuters.com

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Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#671

Post by trashtester »

dayvid wrote: post #434
lawrenceyan wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're talking about is something in the vein of exponential super intelligence. Realistically what actually ends up happening imo, we get human level AGI and hit a ceiling there. Agents replace large portions of the current service economy greatly increasing automation / efficiency for companies. People continue to live their lives, as the idea of having a human level AGI personal assistant becomes normalized a…

If we can get human level AGI we will definitely get exponential super intelligence

Every sigmoid ends somewhere. ASI will have limits, but the limits are surely so far beyond human level that it may as well be exponential from our point of view.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#672

Post by trashtester »

torginus wrote: post #410
dcchambers wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also don't understand it. If AGI is actually reached, capital as we know it basically becomes worthless. The entire structure of the modern economy and the society surrounding it collapses overnight. I also don't think there's any way the governments of the world let real AGI stay in the hands of private industry. If it happens, governments around the world will go to war to gain control of it. SSI would be nationa…

Honestly this is a pretty wild take. AGI won't make food appear out of thin air. Buildings wont just sprout out of the ground so everybody will get to live in a mansion. We would probably get the ability to generate infinite software, but a lot of stuff, like engineering would still require trial and error. Creating great art would still require inspiration gathered in the real world. I expect it will bring about a n…

I would be super surprised if we're not going to see robots everywhere by 2040.

Because if AI has one "killer app", it's to control robots.

Dark pun intended.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#673

Post by vasilipupkin »

EternalFury wrote: post #565
vasilipupkin wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are missing the point. SSI believes that it can build a super intelligence. Regardless of whether you personally buy into that or not, the expected value of such an investment is infinity effectively. 5 billion dollar valuation is a steal

That type of reasoning really reminds of the Internet bubble.

Sure. Expected value and risk are different things. Clearly, such an investment is very risky. It’s easy to imagine SSI failing. But if you allow even a 1% chance of success here, the expected value is infinite

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#674

Post by pnut »

riffraff wrote: post #590
nwiswell wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, that's super. I've been really impressed recently with the wisdom of our collective selections.

Democracy sucks, but we haven't found anything better.

See section 5 https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/05/how-ai-will-c...

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#675

Post by trashtester »

rpeden wrote: post #536
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least this time, people are actually asking the question. NVDA::AI CSCO::.COM

Or possibly NT::.com I remember seeing interviews with Nortel's CEO where he bragged that most internet backbone traffic was handled by Nortel hardware. Things didn't quite work out how he thought they were going to work out. I think Nvidia is better positioned than Cisco or Nortel were during the dotcom crash, but does anyone actually think Nvidia's current performance is sustainable? It doesn't seem realistic to be…

People who fought in WW1, thought WW2 would be similar. Especially on the winning side.

There is no specific reason to assume that AI will be similar to the dotcom boom/bust. AI may just as easily be like the introduction of the steam engine at the start of the industrial revolution, just sped up.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#676

Post by __loam »

robertlagrant wrote: post #642
__loam wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm naive but there seems to be way too much financial incentive in this space for CUDA to continue to be the top dog. Just like microprocessors, these devices are going to get commodified, standardized, open sourced, etc. Nvidia making massive profits is a sign of huge market inefficiency and potential opportunities for competition.

> Nvidia making massive profits is a sign of huge market inefficiency and potential opportunities for competition. Yep, but just as the first reading glasses were only available to the wealthy, and now anyone can have them, the inefficiency takes time to work out. It'll take a long time, especially given how vertically integrated Nvidia are.

Weird analogy considering alternatives already exist in this case, it's just a matter of making projects like opencl or metal better.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#677

Post by trashtester »

waldarbeiter wrote: post #160
tikkun wrote: post #88

"Everyone just says scaling hypothesis. Everyone neglects to ask, what are we scaling?" [Sutskever] said. Any guesses?

The conventional teaching that I am aware of says that you can scale across three dimensions: data, compute, parameters. But Ilya's formulation suggests that there may be more dimensions along which scaling is possible.

That's not how I read it. The scaling may still be those parameters, but the object (the "what" that is subjected to scaling) may need to retain some characteristics as it scales.

In other words, there may be a need to retains some sorts of symmetries or constraints from generation to generation that others understand less well than him (or so he thinks).

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#678

Post by trashtester »

FileSorter wrote: post #256

My question is where is he going to get the data? Twitter, reddit and the rest of the web have deployed a number of anti-scrape techniques.

I doubt that it would be useful for most newcomers to try to compete with GPT/Claude, etc for pure text LLM's now.

If someone is just starting AI research for something like a PhD or startup, now, I think it'll be more useful to get familiar with robot simulation framework, such as Nvidia Omniverse.

While there's a lot of competition around humanoid robots, I'm sure there are plenty of more specialized possibilities. Maybe some agricultural machine, maybe medical, mining, etc.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#679

Post by robertlagrant »

__loam wrote: post #676
robertlagrant wrote: post #642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nvidia making massive profits is a sign of huge market inefficiency and potential opportunities for competition. Yep, but just as the first reading glasses were only available to the wealthy, and now anyone can have them, the inefficiency takes time to work out. It'll take a long time, especially given how vertically integrated Nvidia are.

Weird analogy considering alternatives already exist in this case, it's just a matter of making projects like opencl or metal better.

Why is that a weird analogy given alternatives exist? Were there no alternatives to a single glasses manufacturer or something?

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#680

Post by robertlagrant »

Obscurity4340 wrote: post #662
robertlagrant wrote: post #642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nvidia making massive profits is a sign of huge market inefficiency and potential opportunities for competition. Yep, but just as the first reading glasses were only available to the wealthy, and now anyone can have them, the inefficiency takes time to work out. It'll take a long time, especially given how vertically integrated Nvidia are.

How could people who actually like NEEDED glasses be productive or get around without them prior to glasses being developed and commodified?

> who actually like NEEDED glasses

I don't understand this phrasing - are you implying I'm not aware of these people? People...had bad eyesight before. Now they have bad eyesight with corrective lenses.

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