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Intel Honesty

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Re: Intel Honesty

#241
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that contains units with lots of bedrooms But presumably you'll never be able to buy and will have to rent forever? Real estate is significantly more expensive in Taiwan relative to income than in SF/etc.

Is a market where housing supply meets demand, housing is a depreciating asset. Why would you want to buy if renting is cheaper?

> Is a market where housing supply meets demand, housing is a depreciating asset.

How so? Supposedly house prices increased by 50% in 5 years there. So obviously it does not meet demand...

> Why would you want to buy if renting is cheaper?

Because it's usually considerably cheaper long-term? Rent prices go up all the time, so you'd lose a very significant amount of money over 10-20+ years.

Re: Intel Honesty

#242

Not a trade lawyer but as I understand it, WTO treaty obligations specifically forbid the kind of purchase guarantees that Ben's arguing for here. Part of the whole point of the WTO is to to pull up the ladder and prevent countries from doing what Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan successfully did to become rich. So this kind of support for domestic manufacturers is not allowed

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Re: Intel Honesty

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Long ago the people that lived in the area realized that they liked where they lived and how it was Ignoring that there were probably Indians there - that wasn't "long ago", residential zoning was mostly introduced in the 30s-60s. America hasn't had zoning for most of its life! Most other countries have never had it and still don't. (Except every other Anglo country has an even /worse/ planning system than American…

Am I wrong to use when this issue started as the discussion starting point? Or are you agreeing that it is unfair to force a living situation change on a native population because other people want to move in or force their say about things? Zoning was introduced in the USA in 1904. The USA was 'urbanized' in 1920 the first time more Americans lived in cities than the rural countryside. Our zoning laws fit with the t…

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Re: Intel Honesty

#244

Intel is trapped. Its debt repayments alone are massive. The poor performance in stock has encouraged 20years of wage stagnation to the point where you can literally earn over 50% more at amd or nvidia or even an startup for equivalent roles so they aren’t hiring the best. Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working…

I think if Intel was a private company then it would have a better chance of recovery via a collection of focused experiments to overcome their biggest technical deficiencies (compared to their competitors) or to, e.g., figure out a compelling new product that the market didn't realise it needed, but that doesn't require solving difficult physics problems.

But to do this sort of thing you need a dictator at the top who is willing to risk a run of negative-profit quarters to fix the company's underlying rot. If you try to do anything like that as a leader of a public company, then shareholders tend to get angry.

I wonder if there's any lesson that could be distilled from the (minority of?) public companies that don't end up settling into a pattern of carefully-managed mediocrity. Is there a unifying theme? I haven't spent enough time thinking about this to even propose an answer other than "cult of personality around the leader" as maybe helping.

Re: Intel Honesty

#245
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone looking to start a new manufacturing business would be insane to consider California for any number of reasons- cost-of-living, (urban) quality of life, regulatory environment, state taxes, etc. Right now manufacturers should be considering other states. Florida, Tennessee and Texas all are income-tax-free and have business friendly regulatory climates. Several states like Alabama and West Virginia offer extre…

Texas actually has higher taxes than California, despite the lack of income tax. They make up for it in property tax AFAIK. California actually has low property taxes for many property owners, thanks to the controversial proposition 13. Desirable urban areas of California are expensive because we don't have enough housing.

As a Texan, who has considered moving to California many times, this is laughable. I pay maybe $10k-$11k in property taxes (https://tax-office.traviscountytx.gov/properties/taxes/estim...). I work for myself at the moment, but if I took my previous salary of $200k and earned that in CA instead, I would owe CA closer to $15k, and I'm not grandfathered into prop 13. Never once in my career has the math made any sense for living in CA over TX from a tax perspective. And you if you don't own your property, you don't owe TX anything.

Re: Intel Honesty

#246

I'm still hopeful of the fact that Intel is, in many aspects "too big to fail", and with their cash on hand, they have enough of a burn rate to turn this ship around, even if they aren't being as intense on cutbacks as they should be. The question remains, will Intel survive in its current form or could an activist investor stir up a hostile takeover and change the calculus?

On the other hand, Intel is small enough to rescue. $82bn (market cap) is not the amount of money it used to be.

Re: Intel Honesty

#247
yeah intel's foundry business might not be competitive in the short term. but it's better than nothing. they can focus on other industries that don't need high performance / for low power.

because if you yield the whole thing to tsmc. you won't be able to recover the expertise, which is catastrophic for both intel / USA.

Re: Intel Honesty

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$29b cash and about $50b in debt. They have a valid business still, but I think you're under appreciating how much of a hole they need to dig themselves out of. Their current foundries can't just make other chips, and they certainly can't make GPUs for AI (TSMC make Intel GPUs). They are making a new foundry in Ohio, but in Intel's current state and comments they've made to the market it's not guaranteed the foundry…

> $29b cash and about $50b in debt. I know nothing about finance, but I have trouble figuring out how they got themselves into this situation given this https://www.intc.com/stock-info/dividends-and-buybacks : As of June 29th, 2024, we were authorized to repurchase up to $110.0 billion, of which $7.24 billion remain available. We have repurchased 5.77 billion shares at a cost of $152.05 billion since the program bega…

Ouuuuch. There oughta (still) be a law.

Re: Intel Honesty

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Long ago the people that lived in the area realized that they liked where they lived and how it was Ignoring that there were probably Indians there - that wasn't "long ago", residential zoning was mostly introduced in the 30s-60s. America hasn't had zoning for most of its life! Most other countries have never had it and still don't. (Except every other Anglo country has an even /worse/ planning system than American…

Am I wrong to use when this issue started as the discussion starting point? Or are you agreeing that it is unfair to force a living situation change on a native population because other people want to move in or force their say about things? Zoning was introduced in the USA in 1904. The USA was 'urbanized' in 1920 the first time more Americans lived in cities than the rural countryside. Our zoning laws fit with the t…

> Am I wrong to use when this issue started as the discussion starting point?

You're wrong about when it started. It's a lot more recent than that. We didn't build this way in 1904; we couldn't have afforded to live like this because we didn't have cars. A lot of places in the US were actually bulldozed since then to replace them with streets and parking.

American zoning specifically was introduced in California for the sole reason of keeping Chinese immigrants out of white neighborhoods - the idea was that if you banned running a business out of your home, they wouldn't be able to afford the neighborhood. (See "The Color of Law"… or you can read the city council minutes because, like, that's why they said they did it.)

But it's been kept since then mainly because of the assumption that everyone will own a car; cars cause traffic, so you can't attract them or strangers will make noise and park in front of your house.

Funny enough, another reason it's been kept in California is that 70s environmentalists read "Urban Growth Engines" and "The Population Bomb" and decided it was good because more expensive housing would stop people from having children. This is probably the inspiration for that Thanos guy.

> If you were to drive (because they aren't designed for walking) along the 'Walmart strip' of any town in the USA I can't see how you can argue 'the USA has too strong of city planning'.

Those are entirely caused by city planning. For one thing, no developer would want to build this way because it's not profitable - all that concrete for surface parking spaces is super expensive and nobody is using it. Parking minimums, stroads, federal highway funding, height limits and NIMBYs all come together to create sprawl. (See "Strong Towns".)

Oh, and fear that denser housing would lead to everyone dying in a nuclear war, that too.

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