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Intel Honesty

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Re: Intel Honesty

#171

Post by cvadict »

highfrequency wrote: post #61
reaperman wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a market dominated by industry giants from the 60s The thing is, the SpaceX moment occurred because of a rare opportunity where the industry incumbents were insulated from any competition or need for innovation for ~30 years. Some domestic industries still operate in an environment somewhat like this (e.g. the steel industry), but still face modernized global competition (albeit whose effects are kept at bay via im…

Nice analysis on competitive dynamics of semiconductor industry vs. space industry in the 2000s. > I'm not aware of any other industries which are quite as far "behind" today as space launch systems were in 2010. But if anyone else is, please mention those industries here! Digital payments may be in a similar situation. Visa's 2% fee may seem low but from a scale and competitive standpoint it is fairly absurd - they…

> to do what boils down to a few API calls

LOL @ anyone who believes that global financial processing is primarily a technical problem vs. the regulatory / bureacratic dystopia it actually is.

Re: Intel Honesty

#172

Post by colechristensen »

foobarian wrote: post #157
colechristensen wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_utopian_commu... People try this thing on a fairly regular basis. You're thinking "wouldn't it be great if there was a community led by an absolute authority which agrees with me" and, uh, that kind of thing doesn't scale, last, or continue agreeing with you for a particularly long amount of time. >I really think this is not possible without it being a private parcel whe…

> This is just saying democracy is bad It's more subtle than that, because it depends on the scope. Democracy is already not applied in many contexts today, such as most private corporations. In fact I think large companies have many analogous features to communist governments what with the central control and absolute authority. There is certainly no suggestion that a whole state or country should be switched over t…

Again, this happens regularly, they don't actually work.

You're advocating for local government to be a dictatorship. Private enterprise is not the same as a government with power over people and land.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telosa

>Telosa is a proposed utopian planned US city conceived by American billionaire Marc Lore and announced in September 2021.

https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/23/marc-andreessens-family-pl...

>California Forever is a proposed master-planned community, to be carved from over 60,000 acres of land that several members of Silicon Valley’s elite have quietly been buying in Solano County since 2017.

Here's some more: https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/celebrity/article/32166...

>There are a lot of cult-ish or vaguely religion-based communities out there. But that's not what I have in mind.

Honestly, people and their zoning/walkable/anti-car/density/environmental ideals and desire for a little dictatorship to create it is pretty indistinguishable from all the other cult community efforts. The hippies wanted free love and drugs or whatever, the luddites wanted no technology, everybody wanted their set of things. Nobody thinks their cult is a cult, they think they have great ideas, only what those other people are doing is a cult.

Seriously it's troubling how folks think billionaires and dictatorships are going to save them and can't even conceive of a community built on a strong foundation of well executed differing opinions compromising to achieve the best outcome.

Folks just want their opinions and only their opinions made real by force and absolute power. It's insane that people don't recognize how many people have tried before and the awful things that happen when it fails.

Re: Intel Honesty

#173

Post by apercu »

efitz wrote: post #156
kilotaras wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. Those are downstream of housing restrictions to a large extent. From "Housing theory of everything" [0]: Consider a cleaner living in Alabama. In 1960 they could move to NYC and earn wages 84% higher, and still end up with 70% higher income after rent. In 2010, they could move…

Anyone looking to start a new manufacturing business would be insane to consider California for any number of reasons- cost-of-living, (urban) quality of life, regulatory environment, state taxes, etc. Right now manufacturers should be considering other states. Florida, Tennessee and Texas all are income-tax-free and have business friendly regulatory climates. Several states like Alabama and West Virginia offer extre…

Does anyone truly want to live in Florida, Texas, Alabama, WV? (I left Tennessee off the list because it seems a lot to people _do_ want to live in Nashville anyway).

I grew up in Texas. I've lived in 5 states and a Canadian province.

My sisters house in Fort Worth is assessed a little lower than my house in WI. But her property tax is more than my property tax plus WI state income tax so.....

Re: Intel Honesty

#174

Post by kmeisthax »

closeparen wrote: post #50

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

The thing that makes America a corporate-dominated oligarchy is veto rights. The American middle class has enough political power to get issues on the table but not to overcome an anonymous rich person saying "no". NIMBYism is the same underlying power - vetocracy. So corporations would have to spend way more time fighting their own power to get things done.

Re: Intel Honesty

#175

Post by pphysch »

015a wrote: post #75

I'm not sure if I buy the thesis entirely (that thesis most aptly being: "Gelsinger does have one fatal flaw: he still believes in Intel, and I no longer do.") The biggest reason is geopolitics: If escalated confrontation happens with China, Intel becomes one of the most valuable companies on the planet, period. TSMC will finish western fabs eventually, but the delta-t on when they become competitive (tech, capacity…

> The biggest reason is geopolitics: If escalated confrontation happens with China

If escalated confrontation happens with China, and that is massive IF that is dependent on insanely belligerent action from the West like giving nukes to Taiwan, then new semiconductor manufacturing will be the least of our worries. A Chinese blockade on Chinese and East Asian exports to US would result in total economic collapse in USA over a relatively short period. $100,000,000,000s in real demand for goods no longer being met over the span of weeks.

The possibility of direct conflict with China is the domain of armchair strategists that consume too many Reddit headlines, Peter Zeihan, Economist, etc., and individuals directly downstream of the defense budget, where Threat Inflation is good business. It's really not something that serious, intelligent people are anticipating on the horizon (again, outside of the wildcard of an insane new administration in Washington). Even the insane combo of Matt Pottinger, Mike Pompeo, John Bolton didn't get close to manifesting it (allegedly, some of their attempts were undermined by backchannel diplomacy from Gen. Milley and the JSOC). So what's the real risk?

Re: Intel Honesty

#176

Post by graymatters »

schmidtleonard wrote: post #163
zelon88 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. That statement is the problem. Nobody wants to rent. There are too many rental properties, and not enough affordable housing. The reason you need rental properties is because you're already trying to make a living from families having a home. You're not supposed to do that. Th…

The purpose of capitalism is to establish, reinforce, and perpetuate a class hierarchy where the people on the bottom must constantly pay to exist while the people on top constantly get paid to exist. This shit isn't a side effect, it's the entire point of the exercise.

Spoken like a true Marxist. The purpose of Marxism is to literally kill hundreds of millions of people who oppose the Marxist way. Like they did during the 20th century in the countries where Marxism prevailed (even briefly).

Re: Intel Honesty

#177

Post by closeparen »

kmeisthax wrote: post #174
closeparen wrote: post #50

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

The thing that makes America a corporate-dominated oligarchy is veto rights. The American middle class has enough political power to get issues on the table but not to overcome an anonymous rich person saying "no". NIMBYism is the same underlying power - vetocracy. So corporations would have to spend way more time fighting their own power to get things done.

This is an insightful synthesis, thank you.

Re: Intel Honesty

#178

Post by colechristensen »

spencerflem wrote: post #162
colechristensen wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_utopian_commu... People try this thing on a fairly regular basis. You're thinking "wouldn't it be great if there was a community led by an absolute authority which agrees with me" and, uh, that kind of thing doesn't scale, last, or continue agreeing with you for a particularly long amount of time. >I really think this is not possible without it being a private parcel whe…

I think that's a response to the sort of obstructionate governance republicans have been doing. 27 laws total were passed by the senate in 2023 half of which were trivial things like commemorative coins.

The party in power complains about the inactivity of the Congress because minority party obstruction.

The majority party has the full opportunity to get rid of the fillibuster, and yet does not. (pick a year to determine which party is assigned to which role)

The lack of activity is just as much the Democrats' fault, they have had plenty of opportunity to try to change procedure but they have not.

Re: Intel Honesty

#179

Post by madmask »

schmidtleonard wrote: post #163
zelon88 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. That statement is the problem. Nobody wants to rent. There are too many rental properties, and not enough affordable housing. The reason you need rental properties is because you're already trying to make a living from families having a home. You're not supposed to do that. Th…

The purpose of capitalism is to establish, reinforce, and perpetuate a class hierarchy where the people on the bottom must constantly pay to exist while the people on top constantly get paid to exist. This shit isn't a side effect, it's the entire point of the exercise.

Capitalism gives you opportunities to climb the ladder

Re: Intel Honesty

#180

Post by umvi »

> today AMD has both better designs and, thanks to the fact they fab their chips at TSMC, better processes

On paper AMD is better, but in the scientific community, it seems that Intel has much better performance for things like NumPy and SciPy. The reason seems to be "Intel® MKL" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Math_Kernel_Library).

I'm using a lot of weasel words like "seems to" because I haven't rigorously proved it. But anecdotally, my company's AI pipelines which are NumPy/SciPy heavy run an order of magnitude faster (2 seconds vs. 20 seconds) on my laptop's Intel i7 than the do on my Ryzen 7, despite the Ryzen 7 being a newer gen than the i7.

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