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Intel Honesty

stratechery.com

71–80 of 426 posts

Re: Intel Honesty

#71
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Throughout most of the 2010s, EUV lithography was like the "year of the Linux desktop" - i.e., this year will be the year where EUV was suitable for high volume manufacturing. We need to learn to recognize the difference between something that's never going to happen for either physical or economic/social/structural reasons, and something that is just really difficult and takes a long time. I always think of this w…

The main reason there will never be a “year of Linux on the desktop” is that desktops became irrelevant before Microsoft became… whatever it is now.

Desktops are irrelevant? Other than a few things does any actual work happen on mobile devices?

I think it would be correct to say that present-day desktops are mature and stable and aren't rapidly changing because they fill a mature niche. Mobile does seem to have decimated the casual computing and much of the non-work-related computing niche, at least for non-technical people.

I wonder if there's an argument to be made that desktops should become more technical and power user oriented since that is now their niche.

Re: Intel Honesty

#72
What happens to the computer and tech industry if Intel fails?

The x86 licence still has value to some others in the space, but it seems like Intel could potentially be sold off for parts if it can't sell correct.

Re: Intel Honesty

#73
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can trade your stock for intel stock when working at any company. Stock grants really should be swapped for income and reinvested how you see best. So ultimately the total take home income is what should matter for any new hire. Take the higher paying and job and buy intel stock if you believe it’ll rise.

Most stock vests over time though. I can't trade it immediately, and the value may drop between when I get the grant and when I can actually sell the shares.

He’s saying ignore the potentially worthless options and invest that extra 50% salary you earn at elsewhere in Intel stock instead of working there.

Re: Intel Honesty

#74
post #8

I like the proposed approach of purchase guarantees here. Directly injecting cash into Intel just creates a moral hazard where they spend the money dealing with organizational inertia than innovating in the space. Plus, the government could even turn a profit reselling its purchased semiconductors to various US companies! The US ecosystem badly needs a serious Intel competitor -- because they just ain't it.

The payments are tied to real milestones like building fabs. Intel cannot spend the money on organizational inertia because that wouldn't get them the money.

It doesn't matter how badly they want to sell the chips if they don't have the money to build the fabs in the first place. That's where Intel is at right now. Building fabs is incredibly expensive and they need the money upfront.

Re: Intel Honesty

#75
I'm not sure if I buy the thesis entirely (that thesis most aptly being: "Gelsinger does have one fatal flaw: he still believes in Intel, and I no longer do.")

The biggest reason is geopolitics: If escalated confrontation happens with China, Intel becomes one of the most valuable companies on the planet, period. TSMC will finish western fabs eventually, but the delta-t on when they become competitive (tech, capacity & cost, remember) with even Intel's western fabs is... decades, plural? Maybe never? The CHIPS act helped, but TSMC is dragging their feet for very, very (existentially) good reason. Also, remember that TSMC is built entirely on the back of ASML; conflict with China doesn't just block the west's access to the east's fab capacity, it blocks the east's access to the west's tooling to build more and better fabs. TSMC craters in this scenario. Samsung also exists. That's the list of near-SotA fab capacity, globally.

Capacity is another good reason: TSMC is not a bottomless bucket, and every year for the past at least two years Apple has purchased 100% of their SotA fab capacity. No one is competing with Apple's margins (except Nvidia, but that's a bubble market; numbered days). His argument is that there's no market reason for Intel's fabs to exist; we don't have the data to say for certain, but I'd guess that if Intel went to TSMC and said "you're already making lunar lake, make our xeon chips too" TSMC would say "we can't" (especially on SotA nodes, but maybe even near-SotA). They're tapped out, they grow, they're instantly tapped out again, everyone wants what they're selling. Intel fabs Lunar Lake and Arc with TSMC; both very-low volume.

Also worth keeping in mind: Intel was at one time the global leader in chip fabrication; but they lost that crown. People view TSMC as this unassailable beast, but they're just as fallible; and when I hear people say "Well, Intel 18A is probably three years out and by that time we'll have TSMC N2P with backside power delivery so who will even care about Intel 18A" are just extrapolating history. That's a dangerous game when all these rankings and valuations are based on asymptotically approaching the limits of the laws of physics. And while it is unlikely that Intel will take the lead again, TSMC showing any sign of faltering will raise the relative value of the #2 companies.

Intel is not in a good spot, but they're still an interesting business, they're still designing some of the best chips on the planet, and with the right decisions could grow to be even better than interesting. IMO, this article is missing a lot of the hard analysis and data that Stratechery is usually known for; I don't feel you can have a researched discussion on Intel without talking about fabrication volume or their concerning levels of debt, but he didn't mention either of those things. Heck, more than one passing mention of China feels kinda important to the topic.

Re: Intel Honesty

#76
post #20
post #10

> in the late 2010’s Intel got stuck trying to move to 10nm, thanks in part to their reluctance to embrace the vastly more expensive EUV lithography process TBH, it's easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight. Throughout most of the 2010s, EUV lithography was like the "year of the Linux desktop" - i.e., this year will be the year where EUV was suitable for high volume manufacturing. I don't really blame Intel fo…

> Throughout most of the 2010s, EUV lithography was like the "year of the Linux desktop" - i.e., this year will be the year where EUV was suitable for high volume manufacturing. We need to learn to recognize the difference between something that's never going to happen for either physical or economic/social/structural reasons, and something that is just really difficult and takes a long time. I always think of this w…

> a working HIV vaccine

It's worth pointing out we kind of have this now. Or, to your point, are definitely inching (a lot) closer. The lenacapavir trial results are great. From the press release https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-relea...

> Gilead’s Twice-Yearly Lenacapavir Demonstrated 100% Efficacy and Superiority to Daily Truvada® for HIV Prevention

> – First Phase 3 HIV Prevention Trial Ever to Show Zero Infections

Re: Intel Honesty

#77
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The semi spacex moment already happened - it was when TSMC was founded

1987? As near as I can tell there was nothing particularly remarkable about TSMC in the 1980s or 1990s.

Maybe the more generic claim is 'when pure-play foundry companies started earning more money than the "integrated device manufacturer" companies')

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundry_model

Re: Intel Honesty

#78
post #65

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

While there are a number of technical issues with respect to the limited trickle of multifamily permits that are given, the fundamental dynamic is that engaged voters don't want to see significantly more people living in the region, and therefore it doesn't happen.

Re: Intel Honesty

#79
post #65

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

Part of the equation must be the simple fact that the US is big and has the option to give many people the 0.1+ acre detached single family home with a yard and 2+ car driveway/garage lifestyle (and schools with more exclusive student populations).

In smaller places, that simply isn’t an option, so there exists greater demand for family living in high rises.

Re: Intel Honesty

#80
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main reason there will never be a “year of Linux on the desktop” is that desktops became irrelevant before Microsoft became… whatever it is now.

Another ad company?

Microsoft is now largely a public cloud company, also supporting a very healthy suite of B2B productivity tools.

Which makes the B2C ad stuff they shove into Windows all the more infuriating: it's a drop in the bucket relative to their other product verticals.

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