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Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

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Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#81

Lived in Japan. I think world will come to realize that Japan's past is also the world's future.

As someone who hasn't lived in Japan, what do you mean by this?

As economies fully industrialize and embrace computerization, they’ll face the same problems as Japan: long lifetimes and low birth rates upend demographics, meaning economies can’t rely on population for growth. Large swathes of rural areas are abandoned as urbanization increases and agriculture centralizes and mechanizes. Women in the out-of-home workforce means child care is hard to secure. The rest of the world is already facing these problems, just not yet at the scale Japan does. Yet.

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>us is the strongest in arm not civil the US economy is one of the (if not the, depending on who you ask) strongest economy in the world - and we're not talking military economy. To pretend otherwise is simply naive. Mississippi, the poorest US state, has both higher GDP Per Capita and GDP PPP Per Capita than most of Europe, much less the world.

I believe the person you were replying to is referring to something like the "civil" impact of the economy. GDP is an extremely abstract measure and doesn't really speak to who's benefiting from that productivity or how they're benefiting. Without challenging that the high GDP of the US may be an outcome of its hands-off attitude towards capital return and wealth concentration, it's not really the world leader for ma…

Hm. Good points. Maybe I misread their intention.

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, it's basically inevitable, isn't it? Cultural heterogeneity is born out of isolation. If two groups of people are in constant contact, they'll never ever stop speaking the same language and having the same traditions. Conversely, if two originally distinct cultures start to interact regularly (even more so if closely) they'll eventually merge into one. People are more willing to give up on traditions and cult…

Millenia of stubbornly cosmopolitan cities suggests it's not so inevitable, as does all but the most modern history of Europe, India, and East Asia. These all reflect essentially distinct cultural communities in constant trade and travel for hundreds and hundreds of years. Contact alone isn't enough. Homogenization doesn't seem to happen until either some sweeping administrative body insists on it, or (unique to mode…

> These all reflect essentially distinct cultural communities in constant trade and travel for hundreds and hundreds of years

Most people didn't leave their local area, the need for a unified language was extremely limited compared to modern society. Dialects developed because interaction was so low, so you could easily hear which part everyone came from, today all of that is evening out over time. Go a few hundred miles and people use different words even if it is the same language and people would have a hard time understanding each other.

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#85
Perhaps a look at Japanese software development will give an interesting look into the subject, not sure how accurate this one is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky1nGQhHTso Then there is politics and a controversial one is mentioned here. ''US spy agencies began recruiting former fascists and Nazi collaborators. US officials freed Class A Japanese war criminals from prison, some of whom went on to lead the government in Tokyo.Many of these figures were involved in founding the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has essentially run Japan as a one-party state since 1955 (excluding a mere five years of opposition rule).A textbook example of this was Nobusuke Kishi, a notorious war criminal who ran the Japanese empire’s Manchukuo puppet regime and oversaw genocidal atrocities in collaboration with the Nazis. He was briefly imprisoned, but later pardoned by US authorities and, with Washington’s support, rose to become prime minister of Japan in the 1950s.Kishi’s fascist-linked family still commands significant control over Japanese politics. His grandson, Shinzo Abe, was the longest-serving prime minister in the East Asian nation’s history. https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/08/07/atomic-bombing-ja...

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#86
post #76

It's interesting to consider that these "Japan is backwards" takes might persist in part simply because it hasn't melded with the global first world culture. I can go to various countries and very similar experiences at an electronics store, a hotel and a gas station. In Japan all of those (and many others) are distinctively Japanese. I've read travelogues from the 17th-19th centuries, and in a lot of them, all of th…

This is interesting, do you have any reading suggestions along these themes? It could be those travelogues, which I assume describe firsthand experiences, or maybe authors generalizing it from distance.

I enjoy reading old travel books, too. Hundreds, maybe thousands, are available at the Internet Archive. A few years ago, I wrote a blog post about some of them:

https://blog.archive.org/2019/01/28/the-world-as-they-saw-it...

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really the economy so much as international economics. The term to look up here is 'exporting inflation.' [1] Historically the US was able to engage in what would be unsustainable economic policy for most nations, but kept it going by exporting the normal consequences (inflation) of such. There's a lot of nuanced reasons for this but one of the most simple is that we were the largest consumer economy by an e…

You've successfully argued that the effect is real, but not that the effect is so large that >If we're not able to export inflation and demand/dominance of the dollar starts to slide, then things are going to get rocky, fast.

It's really hard to answer this in brief, because there are so many critical issues that run parallel. I tried to keep this post brief, but well... failed. I suppose I'll go with the Mark Twain quote, 'Apologies for such a long post - I didn't have the time to write a short one!'

---

To answer this question, I think it's important to answer another question. Why can't a country just print their way to economic growth? Why can't Columbia, for instance, just print trillions of dollars worth of Columbian pesos, spend it, and become an economic superpower next year? The reason is that the prices of things is little more than a balance between supply and demand. If you increase demand a bunch (by giving people lots of money that they now want to spend on all sorts of things) but supply stays the same then all you do is send prices skyrocketing and create general economic chaos.

So normally to see "real" economic growth you need to increase your supply of things while also simultaneously increasing consumption, so you don't just result in over-production and plummeting prices. And this is really hard to do. But for the US we don't really have this problem. We were able to print money, and have that inherently result in an increase is supply as other countries weaken their currency to keep pace with the now weakened dollar.

This is a superpower. This is why as other countries now bicker over what will replace the dollar, nobody wants any single country in control of the global currency. It's simply far too powerful - both as a weapon and as a tool for "unfair" economic growth. Incidentally this also happened in the past. We had a global system setup in place to prevent the US from dominating global economics called Bretton Woods. [1] The USD was exchangeable, at a fixed rate, to gold by other governments. So if the US ever started printing an excessive amount of money, other countries could collect the weakened currency and exchange it for a bunch of gold, making a bunch of profit and also effectively punishing the US in the process.

So in 1971 exactly this happened with the French trying to trade in dollars, which had been quite recklessly printed since the 60s, for gold. But Nixon chose to default on our obligations and completely withdraw from the Bretton Woods Agreement. This led to a great quote from the time that "The dollar is our currency, but your problem." from Nixon's Secretary of the Treasury. This was almost immediately followed by setting up the Petrodollar in 1973, where oil would only be traded in USD - simultaneously allowing the US to start printing an arbitrary amount of dollars, but also ensuring it would remain the global reserve currency, by making it impossible to access oil without it.

So basically our modern economic system began in 1971, and you can see it as a huge inflection point for all sorts of issues related to the economy. [2] It resulted in tremendous growth, but also lots of problems. And once the dominance of the dollar ends, so will this era of economics.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

[2] - https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#89

It's interesting to consider that these "Japan is backwards" takes might persist in part simply because it hasn't melded with the global first world culture. I can go to various countries and very similar experiences at an electronics store, a hotel and a gas station. In Japan all of those (and many others) are distinctively Japanese. I've read travelogues from the 17th-19th centuries, and in a lot of them, all of th…

I'd rather live in a culturally diverse world that either learns to get along or perishes than one that defeated racism and prejudice through creating a singular global culture and race.

Re: Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past (2023)

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, sometimes the "Japan is backwards" spiel is focused solely on their technology. And I don't think that one is wrong, even today. The keiretsus have continued to do a very poor job at innovating.

> The keiretsus have continued to do a very poor job at innovating. It's the same everywhere. We are now stuck in the world where the formula is of A or B. Android vs Apple Intel vs AMD Sony vs Nintendo Microsoft vs Linux Firefox vs Chrome For any technology that has a third party has a very little mindshare. Not only does this make innovation hard. How? When only the same two contenders continue to dominate the mark…

coke and pepsi NYSE and nasdaq google and bing lowes and home depot democrat and republican fedex and UPS boing and airbus uber and lift rettardit and twitter

tho how much is corporate shenanigans and how much is power law of company size, idk

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