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NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

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Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#41
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NASA is a political jobs program from a funding perspective. There isn't any way around that. This creates uncertainties, distractions and perverse incentives all around: 0. Everything is dramatically complicated by the artificial divisions of work across states needed to get enough political support. Grossly inefficient from the start, and inflexible into perpetuity. 1. Initial schedules are incentivized to be unrea…

>NASA is a political jobs program This is the truth, and while you could frame it as a negative, I see it as a huge positive. Because NASA has been subsidizing space for decades the US has a tremendous among of trained workers for aero-space. It was exactly that workforce that venture-capital based space industry was able to source talent from. I doubt spaceX would have been possible without NASA dumping billions int…

> This is the truth, and while you could frame it as a negative, I see it as a huge positive.

I see a clear split.

When NASA does something brand new, where private industry doesn't have incentives, it is a jobs program doing pioneering science, producing unique scientific and technological progress.

Since those projects would not get done otherwise, the inefficiencies are not really inefficiencies. Just cost of project.

But when NASA does something industry has found incentives for, the result is massive money-wasting redundant lower-quality, economically deadend work. The SLS is a monstrous parasite, tragically sucking up NASA/tax-payer resources. The only "purpose" for each build, launch & discard, vs. buying an economy class Starship ticket, is to "justify" the cost of doing so!

So I applaud NASA's manned missions in the past.

And I applaud NASA's current unmanned missions exploring our solar system and universe. And asteroid deflection missions. And human habitability research.

But manned transit, and near Earth resource missions, are best left to the growing list of companies that are funded, incentivized, better managed, and single mindedly optimizing those activities so well that they not only pay for themselves, but grow unbounded.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#42
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Falcon Heavy can ship can ship 16.8k kg to Mars [1] and that's at a higher delta V distance/cost than TLI. In general the SLS can carry around 50% more than a Falcon Heavy, but the Falcon Heavy (fully expended) costs 5-10% as much. [1] - https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-heavy/

I’m honestly shocked more “assemble in orbit” type mission structures haven’t been proposed. Falcon Heavy is just so convenient yet ignored.

> shocked more “assemble in orbit” type mission structures haven’t been proposed

It's unprecedented. A large part of Startship's technical risk in the Artemis programme is in-orbit refuelling.

That said, if IFT-5 or 6 can demonstrated recapture and an in-orbit fuelling attempt is made in 2025 that doesn't end catastrophically, I think the centre of mass of technical risk for Artemis shifts away from the novel fucking launch vehicle system that SpaceX has been tasked with building from the ground up to checks notes a rocket based on refurbished Space Shuttle engines and double checks this glorified launch tower.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#43
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk wasn't going crazy, it would make sense to kill the SLS.

Do you think Musk's antics are having a notable negative effect on SpaceX? There's no doubt that's the case with Tesla.

> Do you think Musk's antics are having a notable negative effect on SpaceX?

Absolutely, politically. There is an alternate world in which Musk retained his bipartisan credentials where SpaceX is being handed the Artemis programme.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NASA is a political jobs program from a funding perspective. There isn't any way around that. This creates uncertainties, distractions and perverse incentives all around: 0. Everything is dramatically complicated by the artificial divisions of work across states needed to get enough political support. Grossly inefficient from the start, and inflexible into perpetuity. 1. Initial schedules are incentivized to be unrea…

> They were never cheap, but they did operate with incredible speed at that time. Actually, they were good, fast, and pretty cheap. The Saturn V cost per kg was much something around $5000/kg (compared to Delta IV Heavy at around $12000 kg), and could send a ton more into orbit than anything until Starship. If we'd continued down that development line instead of the insanity of the Shuttle, we'd really be somewhere t…

They also inherited a lot of free R&D from the Nazi V2 rocket program via Wernher Von Braun and several of his collaborators thanks to Operation Paperclip…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Paperclip

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#45

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

NASA is a political jobs program from a funding perspective. There isn't any way around that. This creates uncertainties, distractions and perverse incentives all around: 0. Everything is dramatically complicated by the artificial divisions of work across states needed to get enough political support. Grossly inefficient from the start, and inflexible into perpetuity. 1. Initial schedules are incentivized to be unrea…

> 2. Essentially a cost plus (or cost even) program.

This is really the only problem.

Because the government was the only buyer - no one in their right mind would supply unless a ridiculously cushy contract is in place.

You're going to massively overpay if you're the only buyer in a new industry that requires insane CapEx and is high risk.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#46

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

Keep in mind that Starship has never made it to orbit.

[deleted]

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#47

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

Keep in mind that Starship has never made it to orbit.

Yes, but it *launched* four times, and the launch tower verifiably works, and it didn't take a decade to build. That's the subject of this question, isn't it? The $2.7 billion NASA wants to spend on a steel-frame launch tower.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#48

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

Musk level leadership, delegation, and drive is once in a century. It’s hard to blame contractors for basically acting like every other comfortably large organization.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#49
post #3

Say what we will about Elon, but him gambling his PayPal fortune was the best thing that happened to the US space program (and the global space race as whole!)

100% - 1 rocket failure away from financial ruin!

It’s crazy how different the world would be right now. Ukrainian generals admitted they would have been defeated quickly without Starlink.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#50

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

SpaceX is like Google, whereas NASA is worse than Oracle because it's the federal government AND a highly regulated industry involving human safety. This is in so many ways, hiring to engineering processes.
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