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A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

jessepollak.me

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Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#11

Post by jessepollak »

kevinconroy wrote: post #9
Toph wrote: post #2

Sounds like Milo... But compete on.

http://milo.com/retailers/get-started Pitch on Milo is more "share your inventory" rather than "manage your inventory with incredible easy." Subtle but important difference in the pitch's underlying meaning... Based on Milo's integration list it sounds like there's lots of inventory software out there already. Not sure how much of it is "great". Suspect a lot of it needs to leverage RFID, handheld scanners, etc. For…

Agreed on the warehouse app part. The only way to really do it would be to have an app that could scan in a box and add 40 umbrellas to your inventory, then subtract 1 at every checkout. Integration throughout the whole supply chain would be crucial.

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#13

Post by wtvanhest »

citricsquid wrote: post #6

This is a terrible idea[see edit]. What incentive is there for any store to use this system when they're providing their data in a single easy to query location? Brick and mortar stores have custom because of brand loyalty, a large part of brand loyalty is saying "I shopped around twice and both times x was cheaper, I'll assume x is always cheaper and use them". Now imagine if every time a consumer wanted something t…

Boom, brand loyalty is gone, nobody would go to their "favourite" store any more because there would be no favourites.

You are assuming a store like walmart doesn't differentiate itself from other stores by having an easier return policy, or that target doesn't differentiate itself with a nicer store.

If you could get 1 store to adopt this system, others may follow since they would be losing out to store 1. Would it take a while? Yes, Would it be really, really tough, yes. Has it happened before in other industries? Absolutely: Airlines, Hotels, Its happening with cars, carwoo. etc. etc. etc.

So, while you may think it is a terrible idea, and it very well may be a terrible idea, it could also be a very achievable idea.

To me, it is more like the steam engine concept. It may not happen exactly as the OP describes it, but my guess is it will happen in time no matter what.

[added] for those that say no store will ever agree, that is a really bold assumption. You may be right, but if you just worked on getting 1 store in 1 industry online, then got a competitor, then got another one it could work.

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#14

Post by MrMan »

jessepollak wrote: post #3
Toph wrote: post #2

Sounds like Milo... But compete on.

Yeah, I didn't realize they existed. They were bought by Ebay a couple of years ago for $75 million, so I guess the idea was validated. Don't know if Ebay will dedicate enough time/energy to actually make it happen, so I still think there's an opportunity. Although they do have the corporate connections, which would help in gathering stores etc.

So we can all add value by collectively forgetting web storefronts that exisfed previously? And indeed might yet exist? How about an idea that keeps us from having to rediscover everything once every eight years? I am being serious.

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#15

Post by citricsquid »

eurleif wrote: post #8
citricsquid wrote: post #6

This is a terrible idea[see edit]. What incentive is there for any store to use this system when they're providing their data in a single easy to query location? Brick and mortar stores have custom because of brand loyalty, a large part of brand loyalty is saying "I shopped around twice and both times x was cheaper, I'll assume x is always cheaper and use them". Now imagine if every time a consumer wanted something t…

But if you can build a critical mass, stores won't have much choice; if they don't submit their data, they'll lose out on lots of customers.

I don't see how it would ever get to a critical mass situation. The only stores that would take part are those already competing on price, big chain stores, stores that already take part in large price comparison sites.

Again, maybe England is different, but we have this sort of thing here for large chains, there is a site called mysupermarket.co.uk that will take your shopping list and tell you which supermarket is cheapest.

Why would a small store (the sort that aren't already engaged in this sort of thing) willingly signup to be pitched against their competitors in a race to the bottom? It's nonsensical. My mother shops at specific stores for specific goods because over the years of custom she has had a good experience with their pricing and service, she views the good experience she's had as justification for not shopping around, "they've always been good to me so spending time looking around at new shops to maybe save 2% isn't worth it" but if she could just type "umbrella" into a website and instantly be told which shop is the best for that item she'd no longer be loyal to that shop.

Retail isn't the hackernews world of SaaS, people don't choose to spend an extra 20% every time because "it's a good brand", "the founders are good people", they choose primarily based on price and service is a small part of it, a part most people will sacrifice to save 10%.

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#16

Post by ChuckMcM »

This is one of those ideas that you really have to think from both sides. On the consumer side I get this really cool App which I click "I wanna buy a foo" and Blam! every place that both sells and has a foo in stock is right there on the page. Awesomesauce!

Ok now look at it from the vendor side. I'm running my store, I need to make $2500 - $25,000 a day to make payroll. I carry a bunch of products, I don't make them, I just resell them. This kid is offering me a free inventory management service, that's really cool since inventory turns is one of the ways I manage my business, but they offer it to everyone. Now stocking X doesn't make a lot of sense if everyone stocks it, or I use the App to look for things stores around me don't stock and I add some of those, except they do the same thing. So now we're carrying the same stuff and we're in a race to the bottom in terms of margin. If I put my price on the item then the fact that there is a wall mart 2 miles left of here and sells it for 1/2 what I do will be painfully apparent. I'll get very little 'exploratory' business because people won't even come in to check on something if they know I don't have that one thing they are looking for even if I do have things that they ARE looking for but forgot they needed. Pass.

The 'big brand' stores almost all have a 'find it at a store near you' and there is probably a week of Node.js and UX work to create an App that goes out and wiggles all of those search boxes and simulates what you want. It can't tell you that Bobs Sporting Goods has an umbrella but if you're in your car and it can get you within a couple of miles you're probably ok with it.

So to pursue something like this you have to make it at least marginally useful for the people who sell stuff. And to understand them you have to 'walk a mile' in their shoes. That is the hard part, getting honest feedback about what they are going through.

That said, if you do spend the time to find their problems there are easily a dozen $100M ideas lurking in there to be solved.

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#17

Post by hooande »

This is a good idea, but maybe not a billion dollar idea. When was the last time you needed to find a product immediately, regardless of store (and had trouble doing it)? It couldn't be more than once or twice in the last week. It sounds like a novelty, not a necessity.

You are 100% prepared to pursue this idea. Build the best inventory software that you can and give it away for free. If what you make is easier to use than the current average solution, you'll be able to find someone to use it. You don't need anyone's permission or approval.

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#18

Post by droidist »

It's not just that you're "not ready" to commit. If it really is a 10 year idea as you believe, that's a huge risk and opportunity cost especially since the quality of the idea often doesn't determine success but rather the execution, the competition, and "luck" (aka. the tons of tiny little factors you can't plan for).

I commend you for not committing to such a huge idea. You need to start with something way smaller, probably fail, learn from it, start again, fail, learn, fail,... succeed (maybe).

Re: A $1 billion idea...that I know I'm not ready for

#19

Post by diego »

Have you ever tried to sell anything to a brick-and-mortar chain? Price is not a concern, they have money. The sales process involves convincing a number of stakeholders, and this is much costlier (to them) than whatever they end up paying for your product.

Regardless of what you intend to charge for your software, your first customer would be "chartered" (they wouldn't pay much, if at all). You'd get in the door because your wife is friends with the daughter of the CFO of BigBoxChain, or something like that.

All of the above is doable of course, but the idea itself is worth nothing. It's 100% sweat. All about execution, in other words.

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