Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
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Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#2Very cool, I have been looking for the name of this for some time.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#3I read this book called "How Big Things Get Done." I've seen my fair share of projects going haywire and I wanted to understand if we could do better.
The book identifies uniqueness bias as an important reason for why most big projects overrun. (*) In short, this bias leads planners to view their projects as unique, thereby disregarding valuable lessons from previous similar projects.
(*) The book compiles 16,000 big projects across different domains. 99.5% of those projects overrun their timeline or budget. Others reasons for slipping include optimism bias, not relying on the right anchor, and strategic misrepresentation.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#4Uniqueness bias is definitely a problem (see also: This time is different!) and this paper's conclusions make a lot of intuitive sense. Less competent planners are more likely to see their situation as unique.
However, the measures to establish that perceived uniqueness != uniqueness seem a little bit limited to me. I've seen projects go belly-up because senior management refused to accept that the situation on the ground at one location was different to the usual situation in most other locations, leading to cost blow outs and project failures. I don't think the treatment in this article would pick that dynamic up.
So while it is true that exceptional engineering projects (paper's example - the Apollo project) are much more mundane than they might seem, it is also true that seemingly mundane projects can be unique and therefore it is difficult to compare with other projects of a similar nature.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#5I read this book called "How Big Things Get Done." I've seen my fair share of projects going haywire and I wanted to understand if we could do better. The book identifies uniqueness bias as an important reason for why most big projects overrun. (*) In short, this bias leads planners to view their projects as unique, thereby disregarding valuable lessons from previous similar projects. (*) The book compiles 16,000 big…
This goes beyond project estimations. The Metaculus tournaments have questions like
> Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1?
These are the kinds of questions most people I meet would claim are impossible to forecast accurately on because of their supposed uniqueness, yet the Metaculus community does it again and again.
I believe the problem is a lack of statistical literacy. Back in the 1500s shipping insurance was priced under the assumption that if you just learned enough about the voyage you could tell for certain whether it would be successful or not. It took a revolution in mindset to ignore everything that makes a shipment unique and instead focus on what a primitive reference class of them have in common, and infer general success propensities from that.
Most people I meet still don't understand this, and I think it will be a few more generations until statistical literacy is as widespread as the literal one.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#6Once we overcome uniqueness bias, we'll need to overcome '...but it might work for us' bias.
Lindsay: Well, did it work for those people?
Tobias: No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but ... But it might work for us.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#7It seems based on questionnaires sent out about projects, and they've found some correlation between "uniqueness of a project" (unclearly defined) and cost overruns. Because "uniqueness" is unmeasurable, they can provide various examples in prose where both arguments and counterarguments for uniqueness seem reasonable. So this isn't really science.
But the overall argument; that uniqueness bias (in so far it exists) causes managers to be less critical, seems reasonable.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#8I read this book called "How Big Things Get Done." I've seen my fair share of projects going haywire and I wanted to understand if we could do better. The book identifies uniqueness bias as an important reason for why most big projects overrun. (*) In short, this bias leads planners to view their projects as unique, thereby disregarding valuable lessons from previous similar projects. (*) The book compiles 16,000 big…
This goes beyond project estimations. The Metaculus tournaments have questions like > Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1? These are the kinds of questions most people I meet would claim are impossible to forecast accurately on because of their supposed uniqueness, yet the Metaculus community does it again and again. I believe the problem is a lack of statistical literacy. Back in the 1500s shipping ins…
I know you're coming from a good place, but the 'most people I meet don't understand this' line about statistics is quite arrogant. Most people you meet are fully capable of understanding statistics; you should do a better job of explaining it when it comes up, or maybe you are the one who misunderstands. After all, most statisticians thought Marilyn vos Savant was wrong about the goats too...
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#9I read this book called "How Big Things Get Done." I've seen my fair share of projects going haywire and I wanted to understand if we could do better. The book identifies uniqueness bias as an important reason for why most big projects overrun. (*) In short, this bias leads planners to view their projects as unique, thereby disregarding valuable lessons from previous similar projects. (*) The book compiles 16,000 big…
This goes beyond project estimations. The Metaculus tournaments have questions like > Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1? These are the kinds of questions most people I meet would claim are impossible to forecast accurately on because of their supposed uniqueness, yet the Metaculus community does it again and again. I believe the problem is a lack of statistical literacy. Back in the 1500s shipping ins…
For forecasting with no agency involved this makes sense, but when you’re executing a project things get trickier. The hard part is finding appropriate reference classes to learn from while also not overlooking unique details that can sink your specific project.
Re: Uniqueness Bias: Why it matters, how to curb it
#10Once we overcome uniqueness bias, we'll need to overcome '...but it might work for us' bias. Lindsay: Well, did it work for those people? Tobias: No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but ... But it might work for us.
Isn't it socially healthy to have that bias though? Like working at a start up is statistically unlikely to pay off in a huge way, but ideally you want most founders to think they can do that so they'll make the attempt?