Tl;dr: the conclusion is exactly as expected.
Does Astrology Work?
41–50 of 188 posts
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#42I’d be interested in the views of professional as well as hobby astrologers who are on HN.
Why? Would you ask a snake oil salesman his views on the benefits of snake oil? :)
Sure, that's the scientific method / debate; person A says snake oil does not work, person B says it does, let's have it out.
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#43Finally, a study about the accuracy of randomness.
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#44tl;dr No, it doesn't work - statistically it's identical to random guessing.
Is it equal to random guessing (which isn't fully random) or closer to true randomness? If the latter, can we use it as a PRNG? "Now powered by Astrology" branding, for markets where it would increase sales.
I wouldn't, since the planets and stars' movements aren't random
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#45tl;dr No, it doesn't work - statistically it's identical to random guessing.
Is it equal to random guessing (which isn't fully random) or closer to true randomness? If the latter, can we use it as a PRNG? "Now powered by Astrology" branding, for markets where it would increase sales.
I don't think they have enough data to tell, but that seems like a logical next step - determine just how random it is and perform all of the statistical tests of randomness.
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#46Lets do animal sacrifices next. Are the auguries true? We need a data driven approach to analyzing entrails.
Can't wait to see that IRB proposal. Do you think it would be able to pass at all? Maybe limit it to sacrificing invertebrates?
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#47I’d be interested in the views of professional as well as hobby astrologers who are on HN.
Why? Would you ask a snake oil salesman his views on the benefits of snake oil? :)
A relevant historical fact here is that the reason the snake oil salesman is a fraud isn't because snake oil is ineffective, but that what he's selling isn't snake oil.
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#48tl;dr No, it doesn't work - statistically it's identical to random guessing.
Is it equal to random guessing (which isn't fully random) or closer to true randomness? If the latter, can we use it as a PRNG? "Now powered by Astrology" branding, for markets where it would increase sales.
Damn, you beat me to it. I was already picturing something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavarand but with astrologers in cages instead of lava lamps.
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#49There's a famous study that found that hockey players are statistically more likely to be born in certain months, due to them being the biggest in their year-groups, which created a self-fulfilling cycles of attention from coaches.
Reinterpreted, if you're an Aquarius, you're 50% more likely than an Aries to get into the NHL[1]. So, I guess I do sometimes believe in astrology, it's just very rarely better than random.
[1] https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month-totals/nhl-playe...
Re: Does Astrology Work?
#50"Astrology is the mother of science" is a great quote and more or less historically accurate too. We should not be ashamed of the origins of science being in astrology and alchemy, they were important steps on the way.