81–90 of 107 posts
It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Japan is notable because they're one of the clearest indicators that 'stocks always go up' is simply not true. This [1] is the Japanese stock market (Nikkei225) inflation adjusted. It reached its highest point in December 1989. It's unfortunate that that table ends in 2013 because obviously a huge amount has changed since then, but even in unadjusted currency [2], its current price is lower than in 1989. For those wh…
From an investor point of view, this is a wrong way of looking at it. Companies can do 2 things with their revenues: reinvest into the company (stock price grows), or take it out as profit (dividends, value of company stays the same). Only looking at stock price is too narrow minded. Maybe companies don't want to grow and just take the profit. For the case of Japan, let's take a look at stock price + dividend reinves…
It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…
• NVIDIA $NVDA: -11% • Google $GOOGL: -11% • Apple $AAPL: -10% • Amazon $AMZN: -10% • Meta $META: -10% • Tesla $TSLA: -10% • Microsoft $MSFT: -9% https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1820355633008296324#m
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The only way it could not be is if this is "the end"
A country's financial markets can be moribund over the long term, without any sort of apocalypse. You could buy into the Nikkei at JP¥30,000 in 1988 and sell today for JP¥30,000 Invest in the FTSE 100 from 1984 until 2000, you saw 500% growth - a 10.5% annual return. Invest from 2000 until today and you saw 20% growth, a 0.7% annual return. The precise causes are debatable - but it's completely possible for a rich, w…
Financial advisors constantly tell you to be globally diversified, but, as far as I can tell, only America goes up. I'm starting to think it's more of a monetary phenomenon than anything "real": America prints the money, so Americans can buy stocks and American stocks go up, and everybody from around the world risks life and limb to get to said place with the money. And, Brand America may not be as shiny as it used to be, but I don't see anything else that can challenge too strongly. China for actually getting shit done, say in Africa, perhaps: They'll build the trains. But it'll still be USD that people want to hold. At some level it's like LVMH. It blows my mind that Bernard Arnault is one of the richest men in the world, on the basis of bullshit handbags for rich people. But, when it comes to money, the fashions followed by rich people are the only thing that matters.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A country's financial markets can be moribund over the long term, without any sort of apocalypse. You could buy into the Nikkei at JP¥30,000 in 1988 and sell today for JP¥30,000 Invest in the FTSE 100 from 1984 until 2000, you saw 500% growth - a 10.5% annual return. Invest from 2000 until today and you saw 20% growth, a 0.7% annual return. The precise causes are debatable - but it's completely possible for a rich, w…
To add to your examples -- take a look at any "emerging markets" ETF, say SCHE. For the last twenty years it has just bounced around without going up. As someone who assumed that global inequality would slowly diffuse away, that poor countries would become rich, that we would all sing Kumbaya, and that this would be a way to profit modestly from that "inevitability", I have been surprised. Luckily it isn't a huge par…
Yes, the data in Africa—the classic target of such hope—is very depressing reading. From 1961 to 2015, real GDP per capita in Africa grew by 1.1% annually (!), compared to 3.9% for Asia, 1.7% for the Americas, and 2.2% for Europe. Growth from 2001 to 2010 of 2.9% is included in that figure; it was the first decade in that period in which Africa outgrew any other continent. https://np.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/6zlj6k/countries_by...>
Why might this be affecting BTC?
BTC is just another asset to diversify into, so it'd be really weird if it wasn't affected by global deleveraging and some margin calls, even if tradfi.
Why might this be affecting BTC?
Selling of all risky assets tends to be correlated. It's called "risk off" sentiment. This happens because when one asset drop in price, leveraged investors (i.e. those who borrowed to buy) may get "margin calls" from their lenders. This means that the total value of their portfolio (when including the loan) is in danger of going negative, and they may need to sell everything.