Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13% • Hacker News Board

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#51

Post by kbrkbr » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:36 AM UTC

drsim wrote: post #6

It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…

I appreciate your comment and share the sentiment. Yet I think about temporarily reducing the amount of stock in my portfolio, since one of the historic recession indicators is in pre-recession territory for quite some time [1]. In any case, recessions must not go hand in hand with a bear market, and even if so, we don't know how deep it will go and for how long.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Click on "Max". Observe recessions in grey.

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#52

Post by nabla9 » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:36 AM UTC

1. Japanese yen became strong, hurting Japanese exports.

2. US job market and high recession probability. US is in early months of recession. according to Sahm rule recession indicator https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#53

Post by listenallyall » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:37 AM UTC

short_sells_poo wrote: post #19

rustcleaner wrote: post #10

Nice! Going to be looking for volatility to sell... Lots of panicked investors gonna be rushing for insurance tomorrow. :DDD

Things get really out of hand when there's a big move outside of the US trading hours because liquidity is so thin. Usually it recovers of course, the scary thing is when it degenerates into a 2020 covid style selloff - 10% down day followed by a number of 10% down days.

2020? go check out 1929-1932

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#54

Post by user42211 » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:37 AM UTC

QuesnayJr wrote: post #40

user42211 wrote: post #30

Why would a high amount of trades trigger circuit breakers? That is just network traffic not power load, no?

They're not literal circuit breakers. "Circuit breaker" is the name for exchanges rules that stop trading when the price does something crazy.

Ok that makes sense thanks

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#55

Post by chrischen » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:37 AM UTC

listenallyall wrote: post #37

drsim wrote: post #6

It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…

> ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon Sure, they always do until they don't, right? How is the US immune from having a Nikkei-like era? Not until earlier this year did it re-reach the highs originally set in 1989 -- 35 years!

Probably not immune but the US economy was able to latch onto software, which is still where world economy is heading, especially with AI leading the trends now.

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#56

Post by swarnie » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:38 AM UTC

Its only given up 10 months of gains?

In a 30-40 year investment span its a minor blip.

Call me when WW3 kicks off (maybe Wednesday?) and then we'll talk about a crisis.

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#57

Post by baq » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:39 AM UTC

alecco wrote: post #33

• NVIDIA $NVDA: -11% • Google $GOOGL: -11% • Apple $AAPL: -10% • Amazon $AMZN: -10% • Meta $META: -10% • Tesla $TSLA: -10% • Microsoft $MSFT: -9% https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1820355633008296324#m

At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?

-- Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems, ~2002

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#58

Post by swarnie » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:39 AM UTC

alecco wrote: post #33

• NVIDIA $NVDA: -11% • Google $GOOGL: -11% • Apple $AAPL: -10% • Amazon $AMZN: -10% • Meta $META: -10% • Tesla $TSLA: -10% • Microsoft $MSFT: -9% https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1820355633008296324#m

Oh cool, five in that list are "Top holdings" of my pension fund.

Which has been hitting dingers for a decade.

Meh....

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#59

Post by sakopov » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:41 AM UTC

kbrkbr wrote: post #51

drsim wrote: post #6

It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…

I appreciate your comment and share the sentiment. Yet I think about temporarily reducing the amount of stock in my portfolio, since one of the historic recession indicators is in pre-recession territory for quite some time [1]. In any case, recessions must not go hand in hand with a bear market, and even if so, we don't know how deep it will go and for how long. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Click on…

The GDP and the number of open jobs isn't indicative of a coming recession to me. In my opinion, The FED will likely cause a recession when they start cutting rates because business will start cutting back spending in anticipation of cheaper credit. The faster they cut the shorter the recession will be.

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#60

Post by listenallyall » Mon, Aug 05, 2024, 8:43 AM UTC

quink wrote: post #47

listenallyall wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...but also down about 20% from 1989 peak. Imagine holding stocks for 35 years and being in the red.

That’s why you DCA and diversify… and don’t forget to account for distributions.

DCA would just be throwing good money after bad. The Nikkei didn't crash hard then quickly start rising, it continued to lose value for 20 years.