The entire aviation industry feels like it is in need of a tech stack 100% rebuild.
Systems like Sabre are 60+ years old.
Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
11–20 of 461 posts
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#12[flagged]
China is probably the best case scenario for high speed trains. They have high population density to support train networks, virtually no opposition from NIMBYs, and low construction costs. Yet high speed trains there operate at a loss[1], and airplanes are still competitive there. If high speed rail doesn't work there, how could you seriously claim we should switch all air travel to high speed rail? [1] https://en.w…
Why does it matter that they operate at a loss?
Does China subsidise its air industry like other countries (jet fuel is duty free in the UK)
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
China is probably the best case scenario for high speed trains. They have high population density to support train networks, virtually no opposition from NIMBYs, and low construction costs. Yet high speed trains there operate at a loss[1], and airplanes are still competitive there. If high speed rail doesn't work there, how could you seriously claim we should switch all air travel to high speed rail? [1] https://en.w…
the problem with comparing these things by their ticket prices is that markets don’t consider externalities. making and fueling a plane might allow me to sell tickets cheaper than a train, but only if we ignore the cost of the carbon output (since neither the flyer nor the airline pay for this, but society at large does) i wonder how this comparison would shake out if you included a carbon tax that effectively measur…
A SF -> NY round trip direct flight costs $362 and emits 554kg co2e according to google flights. The price of carbon by various emissions trading systems vary from less than $10 to almost $100 per tonne[1]. Of course, you could argue that such systems aren't fully capturing the cost of carbon, and therefore using prices for those systems would be an underestimate. Direct air capture literally extracts carbon from the air to sequester underground, which provides an upper bound on the cost of carbon. Climeworks says it only costs around $600/tonne today[2], with them and various startups claiming they can get it down to $100-$200 in the future. Taking all those numbers into account, here's how much airline fares would increase if carbon cost is factored in:
cheap ETS ($10): 1.5%
expensive ETS ($100): 15%
future DAC ($200): 31%
current DAC: ($600): 92%
Of course this doesn't factor in the cost of the electricity used to power the trains, which would at least partially be from carbon emitting sources. Given that, and the fact that building high speed rail is fraught with uncertainty and cost overruns, the highest fare increase you could plausibly argue for is the "future DAC" figure. This may be enough to advocate for banning air travel for short to medium length journeys, but I doubt long haul flights are going anywhere.
[1] https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1424,quality=8...
[2] https://www.carbonbrief.org/swiss-company-hoping-capture-1-g...
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
China is probably the best case scenario for high speed trains. They have high population density to support train networks, virtually no opposition from NIMBYs, and low construction costs. Yet high speed trains there operate at a loss[1], and airplanes are still competitive there. If high speed rail doesn't work there, how could you seriously claim we should switch all air travel to high speed rail? [1] https://en.w…
Why does it matter that they operate at a loss? Does China subsidise its air industry like other countries (jet fuel is duty free in the UK)
>Why does it matter that they operate at a loss?
Because if it's massively subsidized by the state, and air travel is still competitive (at least for some journeys), I doubt high speed rail is good enough to fully supplant airlines on its merits alone.
>Does China subsidise its air industry like other countries (jet fuel is duty free in the UK)
Why is jet fuel being duty free a "subsidy"? High speed rail is powered by electricity, which as far as I know doesn't have duty applied either.
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#15The entire aviation industry feels like it is in need of a tech stack 100% rebuild. Systems like Sabre are 60+ years old.
I don't disagree, but in 2024 where on earth could you staff large enough team to do such a task with developers that are self-disciplined enough to do it safely?
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why does it matter that they operate at a loss? Does China subsidise its air industry like other countries (jet fuel is duty free in the UK)
>Why does it matter that they operate at a loss? Because if it's massively subsidized by the state, and air travel is still competitive (at least for some journeys), I doubt high speed rail is good enough to fully supplant airlines on its merits alone. >Does China subsidise its air industry like other countries (jet fuel is duty free in the UK) Why is jet fuel being duty free a "subsidy"? High speed rail is powered b…
> Because if it's massively subsidized by the state, and air travel is still around, I doubt high speed rail is good enough to supplant airlines on its merits alone.
Is annihilation of the air transport sector really your bar as to whether or not HSR is good enough?
> Why is jet fuel being duty free a "subsidy"? High speed rail is powered by electricity, which as far as I know doesn't have duty applied either.
When the government taxes all other transport fuels except jet fuel, it sure looks like a subsidy. Of course, fuel duty policy is not the only way in which a state can choose to support a private industry.
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Why does it matter that they operate at a loss? Because if it's massively subsidized by the state, and air travel is still competitive (at least for some journeys), I doubt high speed rail is good enough to fully supplant airlines on its merits alone. >Does China subsidise its air industry like other countries (jet fuel is duty free in the UK) Why is jet fuel being duty free a "subsidy"? High speed rail is powered b…
> Because if it's massively subsidized by the state, and air travel is still around, I doubt high speed rail is good enough to supplant airlines on its merits alone. Is annihilation of the air transport sector really your bar as to whether or not HSR is good enough ? > Why is jet fuel being duty free a "subsidy"? High speed rail is powered by electricity, which as far as I know doesn't have duty applied either. When…
>Is annihilation of the air transport sector really your bar as to whether or not HSR is good enough?
"good enough" with respect to "Air travel should be for medical emergencies only"? Yes.
>When the government taxes all other transport fuels except jet fuel, it sure looks like a subsidy. Of course, fuel duty policy is not the only way in which a state can choose to support a private industry.
high speed trains in china run on electricity. I'm not sure how fuel duties are relevant here.
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#18[flagged]
That's a bold stance when first world countries depend on immigrants who need to take intercontinental flights to see their families every year. Let them eat rail.
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#19The entire aviation industry feels like it is in need of a tech stack 100% rebuild. Systems like Sabre are 60+ years old.
I don't disagree, but in 2024 where on earth could you staff large enough team to do such a task with developers that are self-disciplined enough to do it safely?
Heck, where do you get developers who aren’t convinced it should be rewritten in JavaScript?
Re: Airlines are running out of 4-digit flight numbers
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Because if it's massively subsidized by the state, and air travel is still around, I doubt high speed rail is good enough to supplant airlines on its merits alone. Is annihilation of the air transport sector really your bar as to whether or not HSR is good enough ? > Why is jet fuel being duty free a "subsidy"? High speed rail is powered by electricity, which as far as I know doesn't have duty applied either. When…
>Is annihilation of the air transport sector really your bar as to whether or not HSR is good enough? "good enough" with respect to "Air travel should be for medical emergencies only"? Yes. >When the government taxes all other transport fuels except jet fuel, it sure looks like a subsidy. Of course, fuel duty policy is not the only way in which a state can choose to support a private industry. high speed trains in ch…
> good enough" with respect to "Air travel should be for medical emergencies only"? Yes.
Seems a little extreme to me, but fine.
> high speed trains in china run on electricity. I'm not sure how fuel duties are relevant here.
Because to highlight how HSR "runs at a loss" without mentioning the enormous state subsidies that go to the aviation sector, without which air travel would also run at a loss, is a little selective.
But, as you say, this is China. I think "profit and loss" mean slightly different things there.