Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 127 posts

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#111

Post by EasyMark »

worstspotgain wrote: post #40
pyuser583 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is a legit democracy. Elections. Rule of law. Freedom. PRC is not. I suppose Taiwan could be a “special administrative region.” But that doesn’t offer many guarantees, does it?

What's the endgame with China? No one wants Global Thermonuclear War. A renewed Cold War is only possible if China is in Russia's camp. This is not really in China's interest any more than it is in ours. It's only in Russia's interest. The only good endgame is "China becomes a normal nation." This was the premise for granting it MNF trading status in the 90s. It included the notion that democracy would rub off automa…

Short of a coup or rebellion, China isn’t turning “democratic” in the next hundred years. 50 years of favored trading status with various countries has done nothing but cause CCP to dig in harder and it’s a bigger dictatorship than even Mao imagined.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#112

Post by EasyMark »

kkfx wrote: post #85

Just to clear some facts: - China (Popular Republic of) have NO NEED to invade Taiwan (or Republic of China, that's what they call themselves) because an aero-maritime blockade would suffice to starve Taiwan to death; - they do not do so simply because they want Taiwan semiconductor industry, witch is still ahead of their own domestic one, otherwise Taiwan is damn easy to erase; - being a small HYPER-dense island Tai…

Taiwan has enough cruise missles to blow any shipping blockade to smithereens in such a scenario and sink most of the Chinese navy’s large ships.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#113

Post by bobthepanda »

worstspotgain wrote: post #61
bobthepanda wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that in EU they are two of 27. Being 1 of 4 is not so good, particularly when 1 is so big and the other two (Macau, HK) are defanged, and a federal devolution to the provinces of China is not in the cards.

Well no one is doubting that the federal portion of the framework would be mainland-dominated, just like Germany has way more seats in the EU parliament than Luxembourg. But Taiwanese democracy (and military control) would be unaffected.

1. There is no scenario in which the PRC would relinquish military control

2. Germany makes up 18% of the EU’s population. The PRC makes up 98% of the combined populations of Taiwan, PRC, HK and Macau. That is quite the difference in lopsided power balance.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#114

Post by maxglute »

godelmachine wrote: post #105
maxglute wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PRC fought US+UN (Nato typo) in full scale war in 50s, to stalemate, while PLA was dramatically inferior vs gap now, and when PRC didn't have nukes, while US did. So not only did they dare to fight US on much worse odds, they did so not deterred by nukes, which US planners mused about using. Shedding blood with several nuclear powers isn't nothing, there's simply no country more willing to challenge other nuclear pow…

You failed to take into account US allies like Japan, Phillipines, South Korea and India which are more than ready to help us bring down PLA.

It's factored in, it's 101 default assumption.

Ask how much can PRC arm Mexico, Caribbeans etc to prevent US from destroying Cuba if US really wanted to. The reasonable answer is no amount, the proposition is borderline stupid because the force balance size between US vs rest is just that lopsided. Same force balance trend in PRC vs US+co in IndoPac now. PLA growing/modernizing faster than everyone else combined, US containment partners who can't comtain are now liabilities - US still obligated to defend in PRC unfavourable ground of PRC backyard.

Trend of geopolitics indicate US allies are less than ready, and outside of theatrics, has signalled _zero_ actual formal commitment. SKR opposition drafting legistlation to prevent SKR from assisting US in TW scenario a few weeks ago. JP avoid openning up main islands for expanded US basing despite US asking for ~10 years now. All those "war games" propaganda that US can win in variety of scenarios against PRC... depends on those expanded basing (and a bunch of PLA hardware not working). Current US posture (again without expanded basing) is not sufficient. PH is more or less irrelevant. What can India do on other side of Himalayas?

Hence current US military posture (which includes allies) is not sufficient, because allies have repeatedly demonstrated through action & inaction that they are extremely unwilling to seriously help US for TW, because as import dependant islands they don't want to be PRC missile sinks, and regress into developing countries if PRC decides to do their own "operation starvation". And when PLA occasionally do leaks like cruise missile gigafactory that makes 1000 components a day i.e. a few days production will satuate all US interceptors in 1IC, every year it becomes increasingly obvious US can't prepoposition enough hardware to shift balance vs PRC, not just TW in scenario, questionable if US even able defend JP, SKR, PH etc.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#115

Post by ClumsyPilot »

danielheath wrote: post #18
ClumsyPilot wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today it’s less an industrial complex and more a graft and lobbying complex. Look at the amount of equipment US has lost in Vietnam - 10,000 aircraft, including strategic bombers! incomparably more ammunition. Those losses were considered sustainable! Now it can’t produce enough dumb artillery shells!

US military doctrine doesn't _use_ dumb artillery shells, because it assumes total air superiority.

That’s a questionable assumption, but fine - look at production capacity of air to ground missiles, or whatever it is that you think is relevant.

You will find that US can only produce a fraction of what it could in 1970’s.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#116

Post by maxglute »

stogot wrote: post #94
maxglute wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

Is there a good book on this history?

Here's a recent English report.

isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/TaiwansFormerNuclearWeaponsProgram_POD_color_withCover.pdf

Looks like there are some old archived articles on TW wiki of their nuclear program. Coverage stirried up in early 2000s when US/PRC relations warming up and TW felt threatened about their security started seeding more info about nuclear program, hinting they can restart. I read some of the books that started popping up a few years later, they were in Chinese, I can't recall them anymore.

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5...

ISIS report interesting in that on the box on page 123, note 14, acknowledges US+PRC intelligence cooperation (from interview by authors with former CIA/US ambassador to PRC). This is something I've seen mentioned in Chinese writing years ago, getting confirmed. Hence there's something to PRC's narrative that they had foreknowledge of TW program and had hand in compelling US to dismantle TW nuclear program to avert crisis.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#117

Post by dang »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #97
dang wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful. I suppose I should add that this is not a response to your political views, whatever the…

The whole post is low quality simping for war in one more geography pushed by the thin veneer of drum beats of the US military media. It's the same "Iraq has wmd" Bs all over again pushed by these trash rags. Of course it will be "low quality and flamebait" for y'all

You may be right about the article but I was talking about your HN comments.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#118

Post by antognini »

EasyMark wrote: post #106
antognini wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has pointedly never guaranteed protection for Taiwan. Its policy has been "strategic ambiguity."

That’s what they say to the public. My suspicion is they have an ironclad diplomatic agreement behind the scenes

It can't be binding unless it's a treaty. A presidential administration could tell Taiwan that they would definitely come to their aid, but a new president could establish a different policy.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#119

Post by worstspotgain »

EasyMark wrote: post #111
worstspotgain wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the endgame with China? No one wants Global Thermonuclear War. A renewed Cold War is only possible if China is in Russia's camp. This is not really in China's interest any more than it is in ours. It's only in Russia's interest. The only good endgame is "China becomes a normal nation." This was the premise for granting it MNF trading status in the 90s. It included the notion that democracy would rub off automa…

Short of a coup or rebellion, China isn’t turning “democratic” in the next hundred years. 50 years of favored trading status with various countries has done nothing but cause CCP to dig in harder and it’s a bigger dictatorship than even Mao imagined.

I'm not sure where you're getting your 100-year crystal ball. Instead of hating on them (which coincidentally is exactly what Putin wants us to do,) why don't we try to break the problem down?

The biggest difference between the Chinese system and ours is not the selection of leaders, which is a lot more "democratic" there than in many of our allies like Saudi Arabia. It's tolerance for dissent.

The trick is that the CCP (which at this point is about as communist as Quaker Oats is Quaker) don't have to shed their power base to do it. They just have to have more than one, without horribly repressing the others.

In practice, countries can end up having a dominant party while being actually democratic, like Mexico and South Africa did for a long time (or Oklahoma and California for that matter.) Often, the dominant party meddles with the media and stacks the deck in their favor. The rest of the world grumbles but keeps playing along.

I think ruling elites find it hard to even entertain the notion of dismantling a conformist monoculture. It is a mixed bag from their perspective, and they're technically not wrong: they'll have to deal with e.g. populist morons, foreign-backed candidates, and political disruption. But it's for the best for their country and the planet.

A coup or rebellion isn't needed. It's much more likely to play out as a set of reforms pushed by "visionary leaders," like Perestroika in the mid-80s. This is what we should be pushing for, in front of and behind the scenes.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#120

Post by worstspotgain »

bobthepanda wrote: post #113
worstspotgain wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well no one is doubting that the federal portion of the framework would be mainland-dominated, just like Germany has way more seats in the EU parliament than Luxembourg. But Taiwanese democracy (and military control) would be unaffected.

1. There is no scenario in which the PRC would relinquish military control 2. Germany makes up 18% of the EU’s population. The PRC makes up 98% of the combined populations of Taiwan, PRC, HK and Macau. That is quite the difference in lopsided power balance.

The PRC wouldn't have to relinquish military control, or really any control for that matter. The "Union" is basically the portion of control that Taiwan has already ceded to China. The key is that Taiwan retains the rest for the time being.
Post reply on HN