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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#71

Post by worstspotgain »

siffin wrote: post #70
worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

I know nothing of the history, but I always imagined part of this was wanting control over the chip factories. If I were China, I'd be infuriated watching all the best tech get made just offshore and having it all under pretty much western control.

My guess is that the fabs would turn to rubble pretty quickly in a conflict (and we might not even find out who did it.)

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#72

Post by __turbobrew__ »

maxglute wrote: post #51
wahern wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Taiwan to shut the program down. I'm not sure if China knew about it at the time, but I imagine these days it would be impossible to keep it secret from China--too many spies.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

I don’t believe PRC would drop a nuke on TW if they pursued a nuclear weapon. They want to unify with TW, not make a crater of it.

Invasion maybe.

I think if I was in charge of strategic policy at TW I would get as close to a nuke as I could without raising suspicions in the PRC and then once the PRC gets involved in a war or domestic turmoil I would rush to nukes as fast as possible.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#73

Post by tivert »

worstspotgain wrote: post #25
mdorazio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

> An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

That's a total nonstarter though. The CCP is not going to subordinate itself and cede power to some EU-like supranational authority that it doesn't utterly dominate, and it has also demonstrated how much its own guarantees are worth (with the HK crackdown).

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#74

Post by godelmachine »

maxglute wrote: post #51
wahern wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Taiwan to shut the program down. I'm not sure if China knew about it at the time, but I imagine these days it would be impossible to keep it secret from China--too many spies.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

I totally disagree with the last paragraph. Shedding blood != waging war. China has never dared until now, and will never dare in the future, to engage in a heads-on conflict against the USA. It has skirmishes and conflicts with almost every neighbour. The PRC defence forces do not have the worldwide fighting experience which the US has. Nuclear deterrence acts strongly against the PRC, and they won’t do anything stupid against Taiwan as long as US Navy is positioned in their backyard.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#75

Post by dang »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #2

[flagged]

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

I suppose I should add that this is not a response to your political views, whatever they may be. It's a response to your account's pattern of posting low-quality and flamebait comments, especially on divisive topics. We don't need you to change your views but we do need you to stop posting like that.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#76

Post by worstspotgain »

tivert wrote: post #73
worstspotgain wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

> An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction. That's a total nonstarter though. The CCP is not going to subordinate itself and cede power to some EU-like supranational authority that it doesn't utterly dominate, and it has also demonstrated how much its own guarantees are wo…

Obviously China would utterly dominate the super-national authority due to proportional representation. The point is to move towards unification while Taiwan remains a sovereign country in the interim. Taiwan becomes more of a part of China over time, while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#77

Post by tivert »

worstspotgain wrote: post #76
tivert wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction. That's a total nonstarter though. The CCP is not going to subordinate itself and cede power to some EU-like supranational authority that it doesn't utterly dominate, and it has also demonstrated how much its own guarantees are wo…

Obviously China would utterly dominate the super-national authority due to proportional representation. The point is to move towards unification while Taiwan remains a sovereign country in the interim. Taiwan becomes more of a part of China over time, while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's.

> ...while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's.

That's an utter fantasy, especially by the mechanism you propose.

To be absolutely blunt: your proposal strikes me as the kind of thing a no-nothing outsider would propose, someone who has no skin in the game and would suffer none of the consequences, and whose ignorance makes a solution seem easy.

I mean, FFS, (assuming your an American) would you propose a supra-national union between the US and China with "proportional representation" (meaning China dominates the US) and a mere hope that China's politics become "more like" democracy?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#78

Post by maxglute »

worstspotgain wrote: post #69
maxglute wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's potentially something for next gen TWers to decide, too much anti PRC sentiment on TW right now. Need a multiple more election cycles before TW get jaded with (still relatively nascent) democracy, already seeing that this election cycle. But will ultimately take next gen, assuming there's enough numbers with TWs bad demographics for new voting cohorts going through TW economic stagnation (assuming it continues…

Nothing would do more to get the US out of the PRC's backyard than if the TW crisis is resolved amicably with an EU-style arrangement. I think the PRC is aware that if there is a PRC-TW war, there is nothing that will stop Japan from ramping up their military and acquiring a nuclear deterrent. The situation on the Korean peninsula is even easier to destabilize. I'm reassured by the fact that the PRC has not taken ste…

E: accidentally posted empty reply

US won't leave JP/SKR/PH irrespective of TW, where they have token presence, and not integral to US east asia security architecture. That's really the broader security consideration, PRC doesn't want US in her backyard, PRC wants her own Munroe, and historically that involves forcing hegemon out / demonstrating their presense cannot be sustained.

JP/SKR nuclearizing more complex topic, e.g. it's against US interest since it erodes US control, forces PRC to build up ABM which is net bad for US strategic posture etc and imo makes PRC more likely to start pressing against US presence in region to turn up temperature knowing JP/SKR has higher chance to reduce US partnership if they feel comfortable with own nukes. Dynamics complicated, but I will just say nuclear powers like RU, and NKR, and eventually IR can still have their existence degraded via conventional means without raising to nuclear, and both those countries being import dependent islands (SKR functionally) are much more suspectible to conventional disruptions.

>convert economy

PRC exports to gdp 20%, about half to west, it's not _as_ domestic driven as US, but on export:gdp spectrum it's one of the least export led major economies. Export led is like >50%, TW/HK is like 60% and HK is like 200%. Most growth comes from internal consumption, exports help in geoeconomics, but numbers also go up stupid amounts in war economy.

>Except for TW, no one would lose more economically than the PRC if there is war.

Really depends on scale/scope of war. Taking out 95% leading edge TW semi effect on western tech hard to quantify in $$$ and capability terms, but it's not minor. Get JP/SKR involved, PRC's largest export competitor (electronics/cars etc) / regional influencer (JP FDI), and all of a sudden 1trillion+ per year in regional spoils open up. Open up mainland strikes = openning CONUS for retaliation, and PRC pursuing conventional global strike. And US by virtue of being reigning hegemon with most, also has most to lose. A lot of US hegemonic structures depend on CONUS serenity, which ended/ending with advanced rocketry. Think of what happens when US/PRC start trading energy infra, data warehouses, aviation plants, who has more global footprint to lose. Who has more people/excess capacity to reconstitute faster? Who really has most to lose, and what can be gained. Even phyric victory has a relative victor, and not all wounds heal the same. I think that's what missing from strategic thinking about TW scenarios involving US+co. For PRC, TW is most emotionally/politically important piece of US containment architecture. But JP/SKR/PH more strategically important. As long as US contains with forward posture, PRC will try to break containment. And I don't think US leaving without a fight.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#79

Post by siffin »

worstspotgain wrote: post #71
siffin wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know nothing of the history, but I always imagined part of this was wanting control over the chip factories. If I were China, I'd be infuriated watching all the best tech get made just offshore and having it all under pretty much western control.

My guess is that the fabs would turn to rubble pretty quickly in a conflict (and we might not even find out who did it.)

That could also be a positive outcome for China.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#80

Post by maxglute »

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #72
maxglute wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

I don’t believe PRC would drop a nuke on TW if they pursued a nuclear weapon. They want to unify with TW, not make a crater of it. Invasion maybe. I think if I was in charge of strategic policy at TW I would get as close to a nuke as I could without raising suspicions in the PRC and then once the PRC gets involved in a war or domestic turmoil I would rush to nukes as fast as possible.

PRC want to pacify TW as security risk foremost, reunifying with irradiated but harmless crater of island is not ideal, but preferrable consolation prize to nuclearized TW. Cross strait camaraderie is nice for propaganda, but ultimately really about the soil, not the people, and even radioactive land with no people will suffice. Conventional invasion difficult, might be tried first, but wouldn't rule out radioactive exclusion zone and then airdropping soldiers on one way mission to destroy nuclear program. Secessionist getting nukes (remember TW lack of status as UN) is boots on ground situation, PRC has political carte blanche to do what they want on basically ISIS trying to sprint for nukes, pretty much no one wants proliferation under these circumstances, and PRC will be going gloves off for gaza tier and worse response.

If TW could nuclearize without PRC (or US) knowing, they would have already. But I don't think they can, and despite the occasional US hawks thinks it's neat idea to put TW under US nuclear umbrella, sane planners they know PRC will attribute TW nuclearizing to US negligence (really participation) since unlikely TW can do so without PRC notice unless US help obfuscate. Trying to hide being near threshold while waiting for PRC collapse and assume PRC won't/can't find out even less likely. In which case that's a Cuban crisis PRC won't flinch from, and TW nuclear use will be equivicated with US nuclear use. It's not the galaxy brain one simple trick people think it is. As PRC builds up nuke parity with US, this idea going to be extra bad.

Somewhat related, domestic politics aside, one has to wonder if other forces behind why TW is decommissioning her nuclear plants and becoming even more energy dependant, and less nuclear latent.

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