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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#51

Post by maxglute »

wahern wrote: post #21
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Taiwan to shut the program down. I'm not sure if China knew about it at the time, but I imagine these days it would be impossible to keep it secret from China--too many spies.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter.

TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey potential isn't as fast as PLA rockets/bunker busters.

Unmentioned aspect of US axing TW nuclear program in late 80s, was CSIST / INER (Taiwan nuclear program) was already monitored by PRC intelligence and post Nixon normalization US intel cooperated with PRC intel to shut the program down.

Unwritten between the line is PRC, having closely monitored TW program would have probably nuked TW first if US didn't compel TW to end the program. US Inspection / IAEA went in the dismantle the program, no doubt verified by PRC intelligence, it's unlikely TW can rebuild to nuclear turnkey faster than PRC can mount an invasion. And realistically TW can't fend off a PRC invasion without US involvement, and if US involves to assist TW nuclearizing then TW going to get nuked, and US + PRC will stare down MAD.

Also note PRC fought as in actually shed blood with USSR, India (both borderm skirmishes), US+NATO in Korea, armed Viet against FR, threatened UK over HK... aka every NPT nuclear state over sovereignty/security issues much less important than TW. A few of them when PRC had no/barely any nukes herself. Nuclear simply has never been a credible threat against PRC soverignty issues.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#53

Post by mensetmanusman »

godelmachine wrote: post #11
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

Good point. Probably the Americans have dissuaded them from building a nuclear warhead in exchange for guaranteed protection?

Budapest memorandum-esque?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#54

Post by mensetmanusman »

keepamovin wrote: post #27
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

[flagged]

We wouldn’t get involved if tsmc hadn’t taken over the world.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#55

Post by majorchord »

godelmachine wrote: post #11
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

Good point. Probably the Americans have dissuaded them from building a nuclear warhead in exchange for guaranteed protection?

I feel like the only country that has guaranteed protection by the US would be Japan. Past that, rest of the top 5 would probably be South Korea, Philippines, Canada and Israel.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#56

Post by maxglute »

mdorazio wrote: post #23
worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

There are different shades of net negative from Being HK, who are now happily partying in Shenzhen, or being Gaza.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#57

Post by mensetmanusman »

skhunted wrote: post #38
mdorazio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

I do not understand Xi’s abandonment of Deng’s wise policies. The One China, Two Systems approach was working and had it gone well may have induced Taiwan to similarly integrate with the PRC. Now, I doubt that will ever happen.

Communism is a hellavea ideological drug.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#58

Post by nashashmi »

pyuser583 wrote: post #31
worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

Taiwan is a legit democracy. Elections. Rule of law. Freedom. PRC is not. I suppose Taiwan could be a “special administrative region.” But that doesn’t offer many guarantees, does it?

There are no legitimate democracies. There is the west, those who align with it, and the rest of the world who dont, and the rest of the world who are against the west.

Taiwan is with the west. China is the rest. That’s your guarantee

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#59

Post by nashashmi »

refurb wrote: post #52

This seems like the kind of article that US intelligence agencies would seed in the media. Prep the voters for mass support of Taiwan from the US.

Dont leave us hanging. Give us the details why you think so. I haven’t read the article yet.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#60

Post by nashashmi »

ethbr1 wrote: post #29
ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Zelensky has been requesting peace since the beginning of the war -- Russia returns to Ukraine'# internationally recognized borders, and the war's over. And last I checked, the manpower shortage should be addressed in 2026, after Ukraine finally lowered their draft age earlier the year.

Actually only the west is trying to stop the whole peace deal. Zelensky is asking for ceasefire. No one else wants it. No one wants peace.
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