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Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

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Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#91
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, so I am quoting it, below: >Fire 80% of them. Twitter had probably more talent per capita than Intel. If they can fire 80% most companies should.

> If they can fire 80% most companies should What's special about "them"? Twitter was technically never a particularly complex product that required some kind of exceptional talent. Not even remotely in the same ballpark compared to what Intel is doing (or trying to do anyway...)

Indeed there are highly valuable experts at Intel - there have to be, for them to function at all. They're an engineering company making incredibly complex products, unlike Twitter which just sold ads.

But there are also likely to be countless "twitter-like" employees too, paid to sit on their hands or faff about with branding or tinker with devops parlor tricks or gate access to resources that engineers need.

So the current level of cuts passes the "gut" check for me. They surely have less "chaff" than Twitter, and it's crucial not to accidentally cut too many key personnel in the process.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"but it also takes luck to stay in the lead." It's not luck if they were riding momentum that slowed because they shifted away from proper R&D. The fabless companies had nothing but R&D to live on and the costs of outsourcing the fab means the capital costs could be amortized over more customers (meaning intel should have probably split in two). Intel's fabs are a generation behind and now they're capital constrained…

>they shifted away from proper R&D. Can you elaborate on this?

I should elaborate on the word "proper" in this context.

Intel rarely had the best technology, but it was often "good enough, cheap enough, and available enough" to succeed in the marketplace - this is a lesson SO MANY people forget. Sun, DEC, etc arguably had better hardware, but it was expensive. What Intel was very good at was iterating on the technology it had and making it faster within a reasonable budget. Microsoft is another good example of where "good enough, cheap enough, and available enough" is what usually matters in the market.

Where they started to stumble is when they got greedy. The whole RAMBUS debacle back in the day is a good example of where they took more expensive and worse RAM and tried to make it mandatory. Then there was the whole Itanium debacle, where politics succeeded over engineering and they ended up with a worse, more expensive product that failed in the market. AMD, which had recently acquired a lot of talent from DEC's alpha chip design, then went on and made 64-bit extensions to x86 that Intel had to play catch up to.

Intel (for the most part) ignored the performance per watt aspect of CPU design, which mattered in embedded, mobile, and dense datacentre environments. The result is that ARM came from the bottom up and is now eating Intel's lunch from all angles.

Intel's fabs couldn't compete with TSMC and to a lesser extent Samsung, both of whom could focus on the intense CAPEX (which due to cultural reasons people in Asian countries are willing to take longer term outlooks). CAPEX looks bad on an american GAAP spreadsheet. TSMC literally could take upfront money from apple to build new state of the art fabs and guarantee them a certain number of chips (and keep the money if the iphone had failed in the market). Intel couldn't do that.

Intel spent most of the 2000s era doing $130B in stock buybacks and even if it was run by engineers, they lost sight of the market. Stock buybacks and dividends are fine if you have surplus cash, but chip design is a high CAPEX business.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heck, our politicians are at the point where they're taking their bribes in pure gold (see NJ's recent senatorial shame). A good friend of mine is the son of a former hedgefund manager... who told me in 2018 "owning real gold is foolish;" in 2024, he's recently told me about his expanding gold collection. I have made even more returns on silver/BTC, but anything "real" is probably durable enough to last for (hopefull…

to make sure I understand this: is this the rich getting ready for the collapse of the USD?

>getting ready for the collapse of the USD?

It's happening, real-time. Yes. All "trickling up," exactly as-designed: into more-durable asset classes, largely unaffordable to Joe American.

Just for reference, a troy pound of gold currently trades for around $30,000; whereas in 1970 the same mass was, officially, $420.

e.g. Multiple OPEC countries trading oil in non-USD transactions (against policies to only do so, set since early 1970s).

e.g. 2020, largest publicly-traded company was a state-run oil extractor (Aramco), worth barely only $2 trillion [two million million dollars]; 2024 (so far) there were THREE $3T+ marketcaps, each a massively-inflated evaluation; bitcoin is more-stable & more-valuable than most tech stocks

e.g. #100 publicly-traded asset (by market cap), in 2020, was worth approximately $110B; #100, in 2024, is worth approximately $155B

Never forget that Nixon prosmised, just as countless other politicians are trained to do: that this suffering is only TEMPORARY. They're technically not incorrect, when temporal definitions are left undefined.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#94
post #5

Suspending the dividend is poetic in a sense. They'd been taken over by bean counters decades ago and slowly pissed away their privileged position at the top of computing. They essentially ended up where Boeing did, but at least didn't kill anybody.

A lesson that has to be taught again and again. You can run a business into the ground but look great for years on inertia alone. Intel has been crumbling for a long while but the inertia of previous decades meant it wasn't apparent.

Its incredible how quickly it can happen as well.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't run your own fab? It makes business sense but I don't know if I like that answer. What if everyone did that? Should everyone just use TSMC? That's stupid IMO.

Somebody's gotta run fabs. And hopefully some US company can run fabs successfully, otherwise we seem to be kind of screwed.

To get high yields and a reliable process at these process nodes you need high throughout in the fabs, even with sophisticated models and simulations is my guess. At one point in time Intel had high throughput compared to the world via internal demand, which then translated into an advantage for their designs. Internal tools were build around this feedback loop, until that loop was no longer true. The throughput at external fabs far exceeded the throughput at Intel. While external fabs were designed to be used by all, Intel flows and fabs were not. Rather than adjusting to new reality quickly, and competing on design while exposing the fabs to customers, it seems Intel is now struggling mightely on both fronts.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lesson that has to be taught again and again. You can run a business into the ground but look great for years on inertia alone. Intel has been crumbling for a long while but the inertia of previous decades meant it wasn't apparent.

Its incredible how quickly it can happen as well.

It's exactly the same as the Ernest Hemingway quote about how bankruptcy happens: Slowly, then suddenly.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they shifted away from proper R&D. Can you elaborate on this?

I should elaborate on the word "proper" in this context. Intel rarely had the best technology, but it was often "good enough, cheap enough, and available enough" to succeed in the marketplace - this is a lesson SO MANY people forget. Sun, DEC, etc arguably had better hardware, but it was expensive. What Intel was very good at was iterating on the technology it had and making it faster within a reasonable budget. Micr…

> Then there was the whole Itanium debacle, where politics succeeded over engineering and they ended up with a worse, more expensive product that failed in the market.

Why do you say Itanium was politics over engineering? It turned out to be a not-really-workable idea, sure. But if you looked at it, not knowing how it was going to work out, it was not an obviously bad idea. It was probably worth trying.

(Or are you saying that politics succeeded over engineering in the process of implementation of Itanium? I have no view on that.)

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#98
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they can fire 80% most companies should What's special about "them"? Twitter was technically never a particularly complex product that required some kind of exceptional talent. Not even remotely in the same ballpark compared to what Intel is doing (or trying to do anyway...)

Indeed there are highly valuable experts at Intel - there have to be, for them to function at all. They're an engineering company making incredibly complex products, unlike Twitter which just sold ads. But there are also likely to be countless "twitter-like" employees too, paid to sit on their hands or faff about with branding or tinker with devops parlor tricks or gate access to resources that engineers need. So the…

The big difference is that Intel is a manufacturer, not just a web site. They need people on the ground, many of them, in anticontamination suits, 24/7. That changes the "can we just fire 80% of them" question by quite a bit.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone around here keeps talking about how the problem of Intel is that it was a Business guy running the company and not an engineer, and it feels so similar to when people claimed Phil Spencer was going to save Xbox. Truth is, Pat is doing nothing despite the generous government subsidies

This is simply not true. They are building giant fabs in Arizona and Ohio from those subsidies. It takes YEARS to realize the benefits of these changes. The problem is, to stopgap TSMCs growing lead, Intel resorted to cranking up voltage on the last two generations of chips leading to what will be an imminent gigantic ass lawsuit.

This is where I see that Intel Processor are pushing the cart for Intel Fabs by small iterations to sell new processors and mother boards. Intel Fabs needs to push it's own cart like TSMC and actually focus on long term quality and gains.

Re: Intel Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

#100
post #85

$152 billion in stock buybacks. We don't have an economy anymore, we are just handing money to the ultra-wealthy. US. Total economic collapse. Hard landing. This is the beginning of the end. We really had the chance to make something beautiful with this country, but the 1% bought and sold it into the ground. Half our politicians aren't even trying to keep it running anymore.

I hate that I can't tell if this is satire

If you believe it to be satire, you haven’t been paying attention to the data.
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