comparating the venezuela data against other recent elections:
https://x.com/opablo_gm/status/1819096457850335384
and allowing the anomaly to surface
Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
511–520 of 536 posts
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#512Earlier quoted context omitted.
Those are not “forecasts”. Those are actual counts based on the records they have (80% of all records). There is no forecasting being done, they simply counted the votes from the voting records.
They have to forecast to make up for records they do not have. Otherwise they can just pick the 80% that are most likely to vote the way they want
It's very unclear what you're trying to say here. Nobody is talking about a forecasted 100%-of-returns outcome. They're talking about the 80%-of-returns number that the ECN announced.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#513Earlier quoted context omitted.
This criteria is erroneous as the 2020 US election proved. The UN updated its Election Observation standards, and Venezuela's election mostly passes them.
Which criterion specifically was violated during that election? A lot of people seem to think there was a delay in reporting results, but there's a differences between a reporting delay and a counting delay. Most districts report counts incrementally, so if it's taking a long time to open thousands of envelopes, and it's a close race, you get incremental updates, but no final verdict until enough are counted. Also, a…
"so if it's taking a long time to open thousands of envelopes, and it's a close race, you get incremental updates, but no final verdict until enough are counted."
Exactly. The criterion is delay in announcing results, but the election was legitimate so there's an issue with the criterion.
"there's a differences between a reporting delay and a counting delay."
not relevant to the standard
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#514Here are the true vote totals, as reported by witnesses at the polling booths: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ It was a landslide for the opposition candidate Gonzalez, 67% to Maduro’s 30%. Sadly, the mathematical analysis in the OP is no match for the power of state brutality. It’s fun to point out the cheating, but ultimately it reminds me of xkcd 538.
How do the witnesses know how people voted? I can't find sources saying whether Venezuela has as secret ballot or not, but I assume so otherwise it would be all over the news
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#515if only we had secure computing devices. Imagine a useful application of blockchain. A historic first :p
How do you ensure one person one vote without giving an authority the sole power of creating keys? How do you prevent them creating additional ones?
What happens if someone dies between generating a key and the election? What stops someone else casting their vote?
What happens if you loose your key? How do you prove it in order to get a new one?
What happens if your key is stolen? How do you blacklist it without creating a capability of blacklisting anyone's keys?
If you are voting electronically at a polling station, what stops the machines casting vote differently than the button press and showing something different on the screen? There is no audit that can find that, and you have no recourse and no proof if this happens. If voting is at home, what stops someone standing over you to intimidate you into voting a certain way or bribing you for a vote?
How do technically illiterate people exercise their right to vote?
What happens if there is a server outage? The entire democracy will get thrown into chaos.
What if someone decides the cost of a 51% attack is worthwhile in order to take over a whole country?
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#516Earlier quoted context omitted.
They have to forecast to make up for records they do not have. Otherwise they can just pick the 80% that are most likely to vote the way they want
It's very unclear what you're trying to say here. Nobody is talking about a forecasted 100%-of-returns outcome. They're talking about the 80%-of-returns number that the ECN announced.
I'm talking about the 81% that the opposition party claims to have in ballot receipts
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#517Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks for the article. I had to translate as my Spanish isn't very good. These seem to be the main points > Surveys of career-marking firms in the Venezuelan political environment, such as Datanalisis, Datincorp, Delphos and Consultores 21, as well as the incipient Power and Strategy, by political scientist Ricardo Ríos, claim that the postulate of anti-chavismo accumulates more than 50 percent of the intention to v…
which makes all this commentary all the more appalling. rationalism requires more than poorly-informed guesses. rationalism allows for the distinct and non-negligible possibility that surveys are gamed by manipulating the wording of the questions and/or who is asked to respond. skepticism is more than toeing the line of whatever country you think is morally righteous
Agreed
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#518Earlier quoted context omitted.
>It would be interesting to look for patterns in a (presumably) fair election like the recent British one for comparison. Someone should run this same analysis on all the election data they can get their hands on. Who knows what might be found.
There were some pretty shit analysises of the 2020 US elections that Matt Parker covered with videos like "Why do Biden's votes not follow Benford's law?"[1] and "Why was Biden's win calculated to be 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000?"[2]. I don't know about other countries, but the amount of data that every county in every US state produces makes systematic fraud pretty much impossible. If there's literally only 3 numbers…
Those are really well done, not to mention hilarious. Thanks for sharing.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#519To play the devil's advocate: It's possible that the person making the announcement was only given the rounded percentages and the total number of votes, and then "created" the number of votes per candidate to fit to the format of the announcement. That would be sloppy, but not malicious.
Unlikely, the person making the announcement was an official from the national electoral council (Consejo Nacional Electoral). There's no reason the national electoral council wouldn't have access to the exact counts and would have to work their way backwards from percentages. Source: https://x.com/yvangil/status/1817787106237743565
You say 'unlikely'. But the real question is 'how likely'.
Without accounting for the probability of such an event, the whole analysis isn't worth much.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#520We all mock these third rate dictatorship issues, but then in America we allow voting without ID or any sorts of protection at all... Basically asking people to commit fraud.