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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#481
BTW when actual raw electoral data is available it's possible to create infographics that far easier to read. Like there been Shpilkin graphs for every major Russia elections. When cental authorities trying to match specific number in percent of votes it's always obvious on scale.

Like you basically can see "cells" on these graphs that appear because of falsefied results on particular voting stations:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/11/russian-...

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/21/putin-2024

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if related but also a book on this as well:- https://www.amazon.com/Stealing-Your-Vote-Inside-Election/dp... Whether or not there was election fraud I don't know. All I know is I cannot trust anything the mainstream media has to say on the topic (or any other topic for that matter).

Instead of reading conspiratorial books from authors with a profit motive, ask a simple question. If there was election fraud, how come the conservative super majority in the supreme court is not all over it? Ask for evidence first, before putting your faith in conspiracy theories, from books or movies. If you believe in things without evidence, and then vote based on that, we're all screwed. This is the path to ideo…

For the same reason that I doubt anything will come of this in Venezuela either.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#484
post #460

It's all nice looking for suspicious patterns but a bit pointless when the election is very obviously rigged (107% of votes counted etc) and Maduro is like I control the army what you going to do about it? The latter is a more interesting question. There must be some way to get vote rigging dictators out?

> There must be some way to get vote rigging dictators out?

If only other countries wasn't supplying dictator regimes with money, but it's very hard to do. Especially after EU gave enough money to another dictator to make him into much more dangerous warmonger. So now Venezuela isn't the worst dictatorship and it's will get more money from oil.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#485

I recall having read about elections in Africa and the troubles they faced. I can't find it now, but there was one particular website offering a very detailed but rigorous approach to determining the legitimacy of elections. I'll offer this article from the BBC as a stand in for the criteria (from 2016): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37243190 Vote rigging: How to spot the tell-tale signs 1. Too many voters 2.…

7. Outliers. Like in the recent Romanian votes, in the same building there were 4 booths. On 3 of them a party got around 150 votes each, on the fourth zero. But did the authorities care? No, because it's not their party.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I don't understand what you have identified as the problem. My understanding of the article is that the raw tallies should not correspond to "precise" rounded percentages. The article in an addendum points out one way that could legitimately occur (some underling has the totals and rounded percentages but needs the raw tallies and naively multiplies to get them).

I'm summarizing that PPS in my comment. The exculpatory scenario is: (1) start with real numbers, (2) compute percentages, (3) round percentages, (4) discard original numbers, (5) compute new numbers from the round percentages. Steps (4) and (5) don't have any valid explanation, and few (though maybe some) plausible human error explanations. As long as we're on the same page that nobody ever had any business reportin…

> Steps (4) and (5) don't have any valid explanation, and few (though maybe some) plausible human error explanations.

It does... Person A didn't send the original numbers to Person B. And then Person B wanted to publish a document that showed the original numbers anyway (maybe they were asked to by a media person or something). And they did the glaringly obvious calculation of g% x total_votes and called it a day instead of being delayed for hours or days waiting for a request for the original numbers. This is really a very common scenario that happens everywhere in multiple fields.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#487
post #458

This is why you don’t vote away your right to bear arms

Yea, be awful if, say the US, was on the precipice of slipping into a dictaorship. Thank god they've got guns, that'll make everything better!

Venezuela went from the richest country in South America to one where the average citizen lost 17lbs in a year. Once your economy looks like that, the slightest hint of armed unrest could collapse the government. The only reason Maduro stayed in power was because he could have the military shoot into unarmed crowds with no repercussions.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#488

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

Exactly. You don't need advanced math. You only need to see the tallies for every voting center and make sum. I believe the opposition has already done this. The fact that the government has not done it shows that they just don't have the numbers.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The year that I took AP Physics, every single piece of study material and practice test exercised only really simple math - small numbers, everything cleanly worked out into integers, etc etc. I did almost everything in my head or with quick notes on paper. This pattern was so consistent I almost didn't bring my calculator into the actual exam because I hadn't needed it all year, and grabbed it only at the last secon…

I had a university exam where my calculator literally didn't work. I put a note on the paper to that effect and worked out as far as I could by hand without actually giving any of the final answers. Given the test was about knowledge and not the precise answers, I don't think it harmed me any (my grade was over 80%).

I passed my physics classes refusing to evaluate the final expressions, after all that's what calculators and computers are for. I don't feel that had a huge impact on my grades either and my sanity/stubbornness went unharmed.
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