To play the devil's advocate: It's possible that the person making the announcement was only given the rounded percentages and the total number of votes, and then "created" the number of votes per candidate to fit to the format of the announcement. That would be sloppy, but not malicious.
That would mean that the group that released the percentage, and thus calculated it, was a different group than the one that released the raw numbers. That doesn't seem likely since they seem to be coming from the same gov't body. This is an official election release, not some PR post on their website.
Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
271–280 of 536 posts
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
That isn't the vote total, it is a provisional count. They're claiming "80% reported" which is already a tell that whoever is putting out the figures isn't treating them especially accurately. It is plausible that the figures are incompetence rather than malice and someone was back-calculating the number of votes from an accurate-enough percentage. Pretty unlikely though. It isn't that hard to count votes.
Sure, but the 80% cutoff on the stat doesn't change anything here. The only way to report out these numbers is to start with the two percentages and work back to them, which would make them false! I don't think there's a way to rescue these stats. Certainly I don't think the Carter Foundation or the International NLG has anything useful to say about them.
As well as inequality in the resources each candidate had access to:
> The electoral campaign was impacted by unequal conditions among candidates. The campaign of the incumbent president was well funded and widely visible through rallies, posters, murals, and street campaigning. The abuse of administrative resources on behalf of the incumbent — including use of government vehicles, public officials campaigning while in their official capacity, and use of social programs — was observed throughout the campaign.
https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2024/venezuela-073024.h...
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but the 80% cutoff on the stat doesn't change anything here. The only way to report out these numbers is to start with the two percentages and work back to them, which would make them false! I don't think there's a way to rescue these stats. Certainly I don't think the Carter Foundation or the International NLG has anything useful to say about them.
The Carter Center doesn't allege made up numbers. They alleged short voter registration deadlines, few places to register, minimal public information about voting, excessive legal requirements for citizens abroad. As well as inequality in the resources each candidate had access to: > The electoral campaign was impacted by unequal conditions among candidates. The campaign of the incumbent president was well funded and…
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#274Here's this re-explained with a simpler example. Imagine you have 1,000 votes. You want to show that your political party got 60% of the vote, so, you claim: My party: 600 votes Opposition: 300 votes Other: 100 votes Presto, we got a good breakdown. The people will buy it.... It makes sense that 600 is exactly 60% of 1,000, because this was an artificial example. But in the real world, we don't get 1,000 votes. We ge…
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This was after she was caught driving without a license while speeding and smoking weed in a state where it was still illegal.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
The National Lawyers Guild twitter profile reads: "Human rights over property interests since 1937. Fighting for liberation, organizing in solidarity with radical movement leaders." https://x.com/NLGnews They are certainly not impartial.
They are impartial if you consider relentlessly pushing radical communist agendas and disregarding information that hurts your political allies to be impartial. More uncomfortable facts: Maduro has killed tens of thousands of political dissidents nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country under his regime [0]. And exit polls overwhelmingly favored the opposition [1]. 0. https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/…
https://x.com/Hinterlaces/status/1817599369471799639
The exit poll that you referred to, is by EdisonResearch
EdisonResearch is based in New Jersey, and doesn't have any prior experience with exit polls in Venezuela:
https://web.archive.org/web/20180528045149/https://www.ediso...
I've also seen claims that they get funding from USAID, though I haven't been able to confirm them
The fact that 8 million Venezuelans fled the country is of course sad, but the context is that the country has also been crippled by billion of dollars in sanctions. The UK alone "froze" 1 billion $ in Venezuelan's gold reserves.
The "Beyond Sanctions" section of this article goes into details:
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2024/07/30/venezuelans-re-e...
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, and Hitler said he was a national socialist. We don't need to judge truth based on the words found in random twitter bios. We can judge Maduro based on his actions- disappearing the opposition leader and permanently hiding local election tallies are not the actions of someone who trusts vindication by a fair and open system.
Each local voting location prints out its own ballot results. These are available to any local who wants to see them. Independent analyzers are putting together photos of these print-outs right now to try to confirm or challenge the results as we speak. As in the US, independent citizens volunteer to run and oversee these ballot locations. It would be impossible for Maduro to "permanently [hide] local election tallie…
1. Aggregated reports: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ 2. Raw images of the voting records: https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/
The second requires a Venezuelan ID as input as it will identify the specific voting record for the person.
I gathered all the records and put them in an archive: https://public.akdev.xyz/ganovzla2024.tar.gz
The voting records are present, you can feel free to analyze them.
Someone already did analyze the data here: https://x.com/rusosnith/status/1818457492893884814?t=BtVOVhD...
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks. Note to self: Next time I want to rig election results, generate a random integer between 54.2% and 54.3% of the vote and count it as the winner's vote, subtract from total pool, wash rinse repeat.
It's remarkable that they don't do this. The sheer incompetence of the Maduro government and other governments that rig election results is surprising.
1) The Maduro government is more like a large gang that is holding a population hostage, than a government.
All major businesses/imports/exports are owned by people connected to the Maduro regime. They are extorting remissions out of the population because they're the only ones who can import products. The government is so incompetent, it no longer has sufficient machinery or brains to operate their petroleum extractors, so instead they've pursued the more lucrative method of drug smuggling.
The upper echelons of military are in on it and are all very individually wealthy, the lower echelons are brainwashed, but still well compensated for a "government" employee in Venezuela. Think $100 month vs $3 a month.
This "government" will never give this up. They make too much money, and they have bought out the military. They can't just peacefully go away, or they will be tried for their crimes in any major nation. Almost every country has placed sanctions on various high level individuals from the government and frozen all of their assets.
2) There are no intellects in this government. The socialists that fought violently in the 90s that had little/no education rose up the ranks and are now extravagantly rich and powerful.
Imagine if you took a bus driver and made him the dictator of a country. That is exactly what happened, Maduro was literally a bus driver.
This is not to disparage bus drivers, they're fine people, but countries should be ran by experts. Economists, politicians, lawyers, people with some form of education.
They don't understand economics. They don't understand engineering. Almost all of the intellectual work of the country is outsourced to Chinese or Russians.
The entire country is being held hostage by people who have about a 3rd grade education, and that's being generous. But it's because they have guns, and money. But mostly the guns.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#278More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#279[flagged]
I remember hearing about it more than once on NPR and "On the Media" which is basically NPR. In fact, I just did a search on NPR's website:
https://www.npr.org/search/?query=2000%20mules&page=1
>3,558 results
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure I understand this battle-of-experts thing happening here. The Venezuelan authorities released the vote totals. They work out to exactly 51.2% vs 44.2%. That did not happen in the real world. Could not have. We don't need the Carter Foundation to tell us these results are false. They are manifestly false.
That isn't the vote total, it is a provisional count. They're claiming "80% reported" which is already a tell that whoever is putting out the figures isn't treating them especially accurately. It is plausible that the figures are incompetence rather than malice and someone was back-calculating the number of votes from an accurate-enough percentage. Pretty unlikely though. It isn't that hard to count votes.
People in this thread don’t know a lot of about the Venezuelan situation for how many opinions they seem to emit.
1. https://x.com/rusosnith/status/1818457492893884814?t=BtVOVhD...