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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I'm in charge of forging a presidential election, how difficult is it for me to use realistic, "ugly" numbers to sell it more effectively?

Not difficult at all. Just pick the approximate numbers you want and then introduce a random error of a few percent. (Normal, uniform, doesn't really matter). This is also not hard for statistics experts to detect, but it's much harder to prove (aka you've got plausible deniability). One wonders why they didn't even bother to do fraud slightly better.

Unless done carefully this will almost certainly fail Benford’s Law.

Manipulating statistics is harder than you think.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#243
post #70
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily. If the person announcing was given the number of votes and rounded percentages, then this could explain it. For example, in my country, they always report only turnout as a percentage with a single decimal and the share of each candidate/party with up to 2 decimals, never the number of votes - who cares about the absolute numbers anyway?

But they did report the absolute number of votes.

Where? In a tweet?

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#244
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of mistake is easy to avoid. The problem is that there are a lot of potential mistakes that could be made, this is just one of them.

And the people doing the fraud aren't going to be computer scientists or statisticians. They were chosen for their loyalty to the dear leader.

The dear leader wasn't chosen for his ability, either, but for his loyalty to the previous dear leader.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#246
No one has yet to post the actual official statement by the CNE. It doesn't seem too unlikely that they had a total vote count as well as the percentages for each candidate and released those. It feels like people are jumping to some major conclusions in this thread

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#247

To play the devil's advocate: It's possible that the person making the announcement was only given the rounded percentages and the total number of votes, and then "created" the number of votes per candidate to fit to the format of the announcement. That would be sloppy, but not malicious.

Unlikely, the person making the announcement was an official from the national electoral council (Consejo Nacional Electoral). There's no reason the national electoral council wouldn't have access to the exact counts and would have to work their way backwards from percentages.

Source: https://x.com/yvangil/status/1817787106237743565

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're still clinging to this in 2024? Wow.

Suppose there was legitimacy to this, which many believe, why wouldn’t we still talk about this in 2024? Are we not allowed to discuss history?

By 2024, most people should have figured out that there wasn't legitimacy to this.
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