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United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

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Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Only one side has had meaningful advances. That's not true, as Ukraine has scored significant non-territorial advances (like forcing most of the occupier's fleet to retreat from Crimea) in the same time frame. Also you're setting an arbitrary time window of 1 year (when if we want to evaluate the conflict meaningfully, we need to look at how things are moving now compared to the start of the conflict. Which is defini…

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Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was trying to put words in my mouth and got caught.

You were making claims that a particular technology does not work, and the other poster was ribbing you by playing along with that thought in a way that suggests the technology actually does exist and works. They did not put words into your mouth, but they did give specific examples of technology to highlight their point.

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Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#253
post #136
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't imagine any sort of sabotage that would make SSBNs easier to locate without also being obvious to the crew. As for technical advancements, what are you thinking of there within the current laws of physics? No other country has the economic resources to blanket the ocean with detection platforms. Some researchers have proposed using satellites to detect submarine wakes but that would take a huge constellation…

SSBN stealth could be at risk by mid-century if current technologies continue to advance in surveillance and information processing. That would be enormously destabilizing from a grand strategic perspective but is still very much a future worry not a contemporary problem yet.

Which technologies specifically?

Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#254

Nobody asks how many anti nuke missiles. :)

Enough to counter anything launched from North Korea towards the US and that's about it. Having enough anti-nuke missiles to shoot down every one means that it's feasible you could win a first strike, which is not conductive to stable nuclear relations

Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#255
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pit production is likely the rate limiting factor. We disassembled a bunch of AFAPs so have a lot of weapons grade plutonium around. But Pu is nasty to work with & Rocky Flats--the previous pit production facility--closed down years ago. Pit production moved to Los Alamos but it is at a much reduced capability. Also, Pantex--where nuclear weapons are assembled--isn't exactly the model for speed & efficiency.

Scientifc American deep dive into plutonium pit production in operation at a new facility at Los Alamos: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/behind-the-scenes...

Rocky Flats manufactured triggers. What’s pit production?

Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#256
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are thinking of is (or used to be, called a MIRV, a mulitiple independently-targeted re-entry vehicle). There's still only one atom bomb per warhead, but 6 warheads per mirv. Think of the MIRV like a cylinder on a revolver with 6 warheads per MIRV like the bullets in it. The warhead has the minimum amount of hardware necessary to make it blow up, while the MIRV has the computers and rocket engines on it. So…

The nuclear winter thing is based on the paper where they assume that there's zero days of stockpiled grain isn't it? When in reality we could go for years with just the grain farmers keep to balance out market volatility.

I'd like to see a cite for that.

Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#257
post #221

Looks like only about half of them have been deployed. The rest are mostly retired but not yet dismantled, or in inventory ( https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-05/united-states-nuclea... ) Apart from the absolute number, is the collection of current weapons "more effective" (whatever that would mean -- some sort of fit for purpose) than the ~23K warheads at the end of the cold war? Or is it simply a subset of the d…

Yes. It looks like the new warhead will be the W93, to be deployed on the new Columbia class SSBNs. I assume they'd deploy on some sort of upgraded/refurbished Trident missile.

~$20 Billion requested for fiscal 2025.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scientifc American deep dive into plutonium pit production in operation at a new facility at Los Alamos: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/behind-the-scenes...

Rocky Flats manufactured triggers. What’s pit production?

The core of the big modern (relative term here given these designs are pretty old by now) bombs are implosion fission devices that then trigger a secondary fusion explosion. The core of that primary bomb is a plutonium ball called a pit that gets crushed to trigger the initial explosion. Then the xrays released by that get reflected and use in a secondary fusion device in the tiny amount of time the shell of the bomb lasts.

https://ananuclear.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/53f947439e...

Re: United States discloses nuclear warhead numbers; restores nuclear transparency

#260
post #191

Every time I’ve seen nuclear stockpiles and the reduction thereof discussed, I’ve wondered: Assuming for some reason the United States needed to ramp back up to an absurd number of warheads (ignore the MAD/political practicalities), how quickly could they do so? What’s the lead time or rate limiting factors in production? Because if they could start churning out a dozen or a hundred a week within a short period of ti…

It works the same as industrial capacity for things like planes or artillery shells. Once you ramp up production you can produce lots very quickly, the US produced 70,000 between 1945 and 1990, averaging 30 per week with a peak rate around 54 per week; but building out the factories to ramp up takes a long time - for the first 10 years the US averaged 6 per week. Most of the US's nuclear production capacity was disma…

I'm sure someone here knows -- how many actively procured munitions could have their payload swapped for a nuclear payload? Are there "rules" against building "nuclear compatible" munitions?
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