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How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

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Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can save minutes of talking to folks You're describing focus groups. They have a mixed history in product development.

It's exactly the opposite, they're essential and certainly do not have a "mixed history". Every product you interact with at the grocery store, every movie, most music, and most products in our modern life go through this process. It's called user focused design.

The best way to do a completely unbiased focus group is to come up with an MVP and try to sell it to them. There's no more honest endorsement than someone handing you money to solve their problem.

If they buy, you're on the right track and are ready to scale up to a larger focus group.

This is called a startup though!

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#82
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deel provides a solution to workers having too much time and patience, and the value of giving nice chunk of each salary for the pleasure of making payroll suck with some AI smeared on top.

> Deel provides a solution to workers having too much time and patience Their innovation was abstracting away the complexity of cross-border hiring. Their impact is meaningful to the degree employment is.

They didn't innovate there! Safeguard Global and plenty of others were doing the same middlemanning for years before. Just because they interact with employment doesn't mean they're as important as the whole concept.

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#83
Hi. I’m an artist. If you have a transparently idiotic startup idea and contacts with a lot of dumb money looking for unicorns to fund, drop me a line, I can use AI to create logos and promotional imagery for only a few thousand dollars up front and a small percentage of the VC investments you get.

The AI in question is Adobe Illustrator but if it gets us in front of more dumb money to say it’s the other AI then I do not care.

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#84
post #57
post #21

It's not just AI startups. It's almost all of them. The startup world is just a massive pump and dump scheme, and so it moves from field to field finding the next hotness. Self-driving cars, VR, EVs, AI, and so on. People soon realize that you can't just take a bunch of hipster tech employees and suddenly create non-solutions that need to have problems created for them to even be solutions, much less choosing extreme…

This is simply not true. Most startup founders are genuinely trying to build something that has value to the economy, and therefore society. Most fail early, most of what's left fails later, but some go on to be real, profitable, businesses. That's how it works outside of the startup world too. Most restaurants, clothing stores, car repair shops, etc. go out of business after just a few years, while a few move on to…

Your last paragraph paints a dual vision of the world that just isn't accurate.

There are the two you mentioned: 1- small businesses that go out of business after a few years 2- ...ones that become big chains

But you are forgetting #3, the one that actually makes up the largest proportion of businesses: 3- people that quietly, successfully, run their businesses in a sustainable, family and community oriented manner (not financial growth focused but personal growth focused) and then retire quietly surrounded by loved ones.

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#85
post #21

It's not just AI startups. It's almost all of them. The startup world is just a massive pump and dump scheme, and so it moves from field to field finding the next hotness. Self-driving cars, VR, EVs, AI, and so on. People soon realize that you can't just take a bunch of hipster tech employees and suddenly create non-solutions that need to have problems created for them to even be solutions, much less choosing extreme…

> It's not just AI startups. It's almost all of them.

The reality is that a very tiny percentage of new companies get institutional financing at all (and the majority of those that do aren't technical and aren't startups in the sense that they aren't intended to be high growth at a high margin). The loud press that makes it sound otherwise is just survivorship bias.

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#86
post #21

It's not just AI startups. It's almost all of them. The startup world is just a massive pump and dump scheme, and so it moves from field to field finding the next hotness. Self-driving cars, VR, EVs, AI, and so on. People soon realize that you can't just take a bunch of hipster tech employees and suddenly create non-solutions that need to have problems created for them to even be solutions, much less choosing extreme…

> I truly wonder how much of the U.S. economy has slowed down because of all this wasted effort.

I wonder how frequently startups and hype KILL technologies. A technology starts to show progress, everyone gets excited about that progress, tons of money gets dumped in, everyone rushes to put that technology into production, technology flops, funding for technology dries up. Meanwhile, a lot of people got very rich, so we repeat the cycle. But there was an important step missed here if we want a technology to actually succeed. Research.

The hype train only seems to gear up for technologies that are still in their infancies. This of course makes sense, because how else do you raise money? Chicken and the egg. But the problem here is that you're not using that money to solve the problems with the tech and get it to the point where it could then be effectively used in things, but instead rush to hamfist it into everything you can. Sometimes you gotta slow down first, and prep for the sprint. Google seems to be the worst at this, routinely killing projects that 5-10 years later are then sold as high status items. A company with that much capital doesn't need to rush to market, you can strategize and take your time.

The problem is that the details always matter and they can be a huge make it or break it for a technology. You can generate all the safe miles you want, but if you run through a red light anytime there's a child holding a green balloon a bit too high, you failed. You can build fancy games, but if you promise a holodeck and deliver a hollowdeck, people are reasonably upset. Hype is a double edged sword. You need some to get people on board, but too much and you overpromise. You can build crazy and legitimately helpful tools, but if you're (or others) are promising 10x what you can, then when they get their hands on it they have every right to be upset. Even if the thing is still useful to them and betters their lives. They are rightfully upset, but they'll unrightfully dismiss what you made. So the people who benefit from the hype cycles are the grifters. The ones willing to jump from one thing to the next. Which is why I'm always very confused why we prop up people who have "expertise" in all the last hype bubbles as if it is credentializing why they are experts in the new hype bubble. How does a giant and brilliant red flag get interpreted as green? Maybe we're not so different from self-driving cars after all.

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can save minutes of talking to folks You're describing focus groups. They have a mixed history in product development.

It's exactly the opposite, they're essential and certainly do not have a "mixed history". Every product you interact with at the grocery store, every movie, most music, and most products in our modern life go through this process. It's called user focused design.

> It's exactly the opposite, they're essential and certainly do not have a "mixed history"

Focus groups are good for refining. They're absolutely terrible for new product development. If there is an OG playbook for start-ups defeating incumbents, it's in exploiting the committee-based designed process that large companies tend towards. (Owning a product decision is hard. Outsourcing it to a marketing consultant isn't.)

Where you and I probably agree is in the importance of finding the shortest path to a sale.

> It's called user focused design

You're quoting this guy [1]. He also did marketing consulting [2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Norman#Nielsen_Norman_Grou...

[2] https://www.nngroup.com

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's exactly the opposite, they're essential and certainly do not have a "mixed history". Every product you interact with at the grocery store, every movie, most music, and most products in our modern life go through this process. It's called user focused design.

The best way to do a completely unbiased focus group is to come up with an MVP and try to sell it to them. There's no more honest endorsement than someone handing you money to solve their problem. If they buy, you're on the right track and are ready to scale up to a larger focus group. This is called a startup though!

Yes, what most people don't realize though is that the MVP doesn't have to be a functional product. It can be a cartoon, a drawing, a mock up, a video, whatever.

Get good feedback early & often

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#89
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can save minutes of talking to folks through Months of work and tens of thousands of people-hours building something people don't want or need. You can save months of research by spending years of work and hundreds of thousands of people-hours building something that doesn't work.

Yes, many business ideas I see are of the type "That would be a great idea if you could make it work, but given how much easier it is to fool people into thinking you have made it work, than to actually make it work, the odds aren't good". And if you're a rich investor willing to bet on a lot of such things hoping to make it back on of the few that work, well, you just made that ratio even more lopsided.

> but given how much easier it is to fool people into thinking you have made it work, than to actually make it work

One thing that has often surprised me about HN is how people routinely upvote and boast about how they faked a demo. Idk why we refuse to call that what it is: a lie. IDK if Jobs did it, it is still a lie. It's one thing to say that this is what we imagine a technology will be like, but to call it a demo and act like it is the actual tool and that its capabilities generalize to the tasks being shown is theater. Are tech bros just theater kids?

Re: How much money we can raise for transparently idiotic startups?

#90
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deel provides a solution to workers having too much time and patience Their innovation was abstracting away the complexity of cross-border hiring. Their impact is meaningful to the degree employment is.

They didn't innovate there! Safeguard Global and plenty of others were doing the same middlemanning for years before. Just because they interact with employment doesn't mean they're as important as the whole concept.

> Safeguard Global and plenty of others were doing the same middlemanning for years before

This is sort of like saying the iPod was a better Walkman. Yes, you could functionally do the same thing. But no, it wasn't as easy which meant it wasn't as frequently done. (And as a result of pressure from the upstarts, payroll across the board became smoother.)

> Just because they interact with employment doesn't mean they're as important as the whole concept

Nobody said that. I said "their impact is meaningful to the degree employment is." To the people whose roles exist on account of platforms like Deel, their existence is meaningful.

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