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Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

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Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#151

Post by FeepingCreature »

knappe wrote: post #119
willy_k wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not well versed but my impression is it’s essentially a bunch of tin foil and the main impediment are geopolitical reasons and cost to orbit, which SpaceX has been and continues to improve.

Okay, so having gone down this path I can tell you it is impossible. To reduce the output of the sun by 2% at L1 would require 20 MM tons of metal. In order to launch that much tonnage we would have needed to start launching mass 500 years ago. And that assumes no loss of material over time, which would mean even more launches. It is not feasible.

Wikipedia says:

> A more recent design has been proposed by Olivia Borgue and Andreas M. Hein in 2022, proposing a distributed sunshade with a mass on the order of 100,000 tons, composed of ultra-thin polymeric films and SiO2 nanotubes.[7] The author estimated that launching such mass would require 399 yearly launches of a vehicle such as SpaceX Starship for 10 years.[7]

That seems very feasible to me.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#152

Post by flosstop »

cjr wrote: post #3
schappim wrote: post #2

Ouch! They’re estimating 131 kt of methane! That’s equivalent to approx 3.93 Megatons of CO2 (in terms of its global warming impact over a century) or roughly equivalent to that of a small country like Iceland or Malta annually.

3.93 megatons of CO2 is roughly equivalent to: • About 149,714 short-haul flights, or • About 37,429 long-haul flights.

Are those figures the wrong way around?

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#153

Post by RandomThoughts3 »

Voultapher wrote: post #137
marcosdumay wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But we are committed now to living in a world that will be radically different and less pleasant for a lot of people. Committed? We will have extra energy for carbon capture on the next decade. This is a problem we can solve. Not before it gets worse, but we can stop it from being permanent.

CO2 is a red herring, yes it matters but it's only one thing in a long list of things our lifestyle impacts https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2022/09/death-by-hockey-sticks/ . Regarding energy transitions and carbon capture: > Energy transition aspirations are similar. The goal is powering modernity, not addressing the sixth mass extinction. Sure, it could mitigate the CO2 threat (to modernity), but why does the fox care wh…

That’s significantly moving the goal post. Yes, it’s a given that biodiversity will take a hit for a pretty long time due to human activity but frankly, so what?

I personally care more about avoiding millions dying of starvation but you do you. I understand that said millions being mostly in Nigeria and India make some in the west care less about them that cute animals, but still.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#154

Post by maverwa »

h0l0cube wrote: post #114
throwaway290 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China emits more per capita than EU https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-ghg-emissions?... .

Not when you adjust for trade: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...

One of them is GHG (CO2 equivalent) and the other one is just CO2 itself, right? Does seem to change the numbers much, but it’s an additional difference between these metrics, right?

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#155

Post by Retric »

thinkcontext wrote: post #82
Retric wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those 100 year timescale numbers are misleading as the impact is so front loaded. They only make sense when talking about an emissions that are constant through long timescales.

I've heard people argue that its both too aggressive and too conservative. I'm in the too conservative camp, we need to figure things out sooner than 100 years and the risk of a feedback loop is high with methane. Its fine to assert that a single number doesn't capture the nuances of the situation. But we have to keep in mind that 1) the heat trapped by the methane stays trapped even after it has decayed 2) methane c…

1) Over days sure, but not on the relevant timescales.

2) In terms of impact on climate the difference from 1990 to 2024 is mostly from CO2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane#/media/Fil...

3) It’s nonlinear, increasing methane concentrations also benefit methane scavenging bacteria which should increase the rate of breakdown as concentrations increase. OH only lasts around 1 second in the atmosphere so in theory it should be depleted by increasing atmospheric methane, but methane is only one of several things it reacts with so the difference is minimal without orders of magnitude change in Methane.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#156

Post by bamboozled »

pnut wrote: post #143
zo1 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure he has his motivations that he has internally justified and made sense of. Saying he has mental health issues because he supports Donald Trump because somehow Trump is pro oil and that'll massively hurt the EV industry sounds like a huge stretch, be honest. Even a casual reading of Elon a lot of us squint and make the conclusion that he supports Trump because he thinks it's what your country needs, heck like…

US republicans and democrats have largely the same policies except for social wedge issues. My bet is that Elon knows Trump is pliable if you come with an open checkbook, so there's real opportunity to advance your business interests if he's president.

I think this is true also, it's calculated to some degree, but shit can go really bad with this approach too, it's playing with fire. Ask Jack Ma about dealing with autocrats or those who "strongly admire" autocrats, as Trump has said repeatedly. He admires, Xi, he admires Putin, he admires Kim Jung Un. At some point he might decide some of your wealth, might just be some of his wealth.

It's wild, really wild, I can't believe this is America we're talking about.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#157

Post by datavirtue »

graeme wrote: post #47
redserk wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article was written in 2019 before a number of extraordinarily significant events with major climate policy impacts: - a noticeable and rapid dip in emissions has proven to be viable due to COVID lockdowns - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Europe and the US to accelerate plans to diversify energy generation away from natural gas - China’s insanely rapid growth in green energy production domestically It seems…

2023 is 37.4, which is a fair increase on 2019. More importantly the chart that matters is total CO2 in atmosphere. You can't even see 2020 on here. That was a one off 5% decrease. Imagine if you had $1,000,0000 in your bank account and were spending $100,000 per year, except one year you spent $95,000. That's 2020. This methane news is on top of CO2 as it has its own added impact. Proper optimism that we can do it f…

Cleared that shit up.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#158

Post by bamboozled »

zo1 wrote: post #136
bamboozled wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hard to believe he is doing this. It's absolutely nonsensical, I think Elon really is having mental health issues. Either that, or everything he has said about being "pro human" was a lie. Which isn't hard to believe either.

I'm sure he has his motivations that he has internally justified and made sense of. Saying he has mental health issues because he supports Donald Trump because somehow Trump is pro oil and that'll massively hurt the EV industry sounds like a huge stretch, be honest. Even a casual reading of Elon a lot of us squint and make the conclusion that he supports Trump because he thinks it's what your country needs, heck like…

Why on earth do you think America needs Trump? I'm honestly interested in your opinion. Why do you say that?

Even if as the other commenter said, it's about advancing business interests through bribes, it's a slippery, dangerous slope. Trump is the kind of person who might end up deciding his Son in Law should be running your company...based on his track record of appointing morons to high places.

I really still can't imagine what is going through his mind.

Trump is a deplorable person even if you think he is funny or entertaining.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#159

Post by HPsquared »

FeepingCreature wrote: post #148
potsandpans wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This data is good for cognitive behavioral therapy and not much else. In that, the world is certainly not going to end, and maybe it's helpful to look at some data that trends positive in order to inspire hope. But we are committed now to living in a world that will be radically different and less pleasant for a lot of people. How fast these trends improve will determine the scope and magnitude of degraded pleasentne…

> Probably one of the only short term options between now and 2100 will be solar radiation management -- a largely untested tech that is surely a terrible outcome. Maybe it's time to put a billion or two into testing all these untested techs then.

That's what I find so baffling. Why aren't we putting serious resources into geoengineering, adaptation and mitigation? It's so underfunded in comparison to what we're spending in a futile attempt at emission reduction.

Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

#160

Post by datavirtue »

anonym29 wrote: post #17
linotype wrote: post #4

We’re not going to make it are we?

Short of China and India voluntarily holding themselves to the same standards as Western Europe and the US for free, we are not going to avoid catastrophic global warming. The good news is, while we may not be able to prevent climate change, we are not powerless against it. The Dutch know how to win the fight against sea level rise. Middle Eastern architecture knows how to keep people cool even with >50°C air tempera…

Populations are too big. We can't incorporate effective bodies fast enough or with enough authority to to implement sensible societal changes. Just when you need an adult, MTG shows up.
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