Earlier quoted context omitted.
Building codes require earthquake strapping and take landslide risk into account. What more do you want people to do? Seattle has had large earthquakes in its short history as a large American city and honestly even mid 20th century construction held up ok. This isn't like parts of Japan where large earthquakes will happen on regular intervals. Engineers have to weigh costs vs risks.
> Building codes require earthquake strapping and take landslide risk into account. "In Tennessee, jurisdictions can decide whether to opt in to building codes with earthquake provisions, while other states — like Missouri — don’t have state-wide building codes at all, though there are efforts to change that."
The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
61–68 of 68 posts
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's probably hoping for emergency preparedness, like any sensible person. That would include stronger building codes, evacuation plans and facilities, emergency supplies, etc. Here in Japan, we have all that stuff, and we don't live with "vague anxiety" (certainly nothing like the high anxiety that most Americans live with these days). Big earthquakes are rare, but smaller ones are very common, but everything in soc…
Honest question: how often do you do Tornado drills in Japan? A quick look look at the wiki[1] indicates that you do get them, but fairly rarely. I honestly don't know your cultural perspective on them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tornadoes_and_tornado_... I grew up on the edges of the New Madrid fault area and, while earthquakes were never discussed, we did tornado drills about every two months while i…
That said, it is very common and normal for people to keep emergency backpacks that they can grab and take to shelters if there's an evacuation. I have one in the closet next to my front door. The government also periodically gives out free emergency supplies for people to keep. There's publicized evacuation plans and routes, and places seem like they're prepared for big storms: subway stations for instance have huge doors at the entrances to protect against flooding.
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
There will always be mistakes and corruption but it shouldn't stop us from doing things that in general pay big dividends. In the long run requiring stronger buildings probably won't hurt the economy and likely will actually help it. Stronger infrastructure lasts longer and encourages better planning that leads to better solutions in general. My point about the economy not being zero sum is that we can prepare and pr…
> There will always be mistakes and corruption but it shouldn't stop us from doing things that in general pay big dividends. This is, of course, correct. > In the long run requiring stronger buildings probably won't hurt the economy and likely will actually help it. This is likely wrong, largely depending on details. But first, building don't have hit points, they have structure. Earthquake dampers don't help with an…
> The economy isn't a zero sum game, but that doesn't mean it is a good idea to simply destroy resources. And money we have on hand now is literally a zero game.
This gets to the core of the 'not a zero sum game' and 'how do we get people to take it seriously' argument. As I have argued, twice now, it likely isn't throwing money away and could create real economic value, especially if the focus is on critical infrastructure, infrastructure that gets heavy daily use anyway. The fact that it isn't a zero sum game means you can do this and still fill potholes. In fact, it means you likely could do this and slip in filling potholes under the guise of 'ensuring access to critical infrastructure'. In the end this is only a zero sum game when we make it one artificially by finding reasons to avoid doing things that give us value like improving infrastructure and disaster preparedness.
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#64This stereotype of people in “flyover states” as being uneducated and dense really needs to stop. EDIT Reader heads experiencing flyover - read: "The struggle to understand why sunrises happen in America's heartland"
Nobel idea, never gonna happen. Media depicting the characteristics of life in various (types of) areas of the US are all simulacra. A lot of writers have the self-awareness to know this, but delude themselves that they're able to act outside that system. However, find yourself an LA writer who's never visited anywhere not called "the $FOO core metro area," and let them tell you how they think the world works. It's l…
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobel idea, never gonna happen. Media depicting the characteristics of life in various (types of) areas of the US are all simulacra. A lot of writers have the self-awareness to know this, but delude themselves that they're able to act outside that system. However, find yourself an LA writer who's never visited anywhere not called "the $FOO core metro area," and let them tell you how they think the world works. It's l…
Sounds like you have just as strong a misconception of people as the people you are trying to call out. The thing about big cities is they draw a lot of people from everywhere. The diversity of experience is high so you may be surprised about the background of the LA writer you point out. I think though that a media bias likely is a thing that causes big problems, like your LA writer comment. It is hard to get nuance…
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There will always be mistakes and corruption but it shouldn't stop us from doing things that in general pay big dividends. This is, of course, correct. > In the long run requiring stronger buildings probably won't hurt the economy and likely will actually help it. This is likely wrong, largely depending on details. But first, building don't have hit points, they have structure. Earthquake dampers don't help with an…
I'll grant I could have said 'In the long run requiring better infrastructure probably won't hurt the economy and likely will actually help it.' instead of giving the focus word 'buildings'. Past that, I think my arguments stand. The fact that the economy isn't a zero sum game means that often just building something, anything, can make the economy better for everyone. Trying it to something useful greatly magnifies…
I am not taking it seriously because I feel you are presenting platitudes and deepities instead of serious arguments.
"Not a zero sum game" is often used interchangeably with "society doesn't need to care about costs", and I feel that is what you are doing here. And I strongly value infrastructure and generally support things that are considered "wealth redistribution schemes".
Convince me spending on earthquake-proofing will have ANY value and you can begin changing my mind. Convince me spending earthquake-proofing is better than tornado resilience and you will have completely changed my mind. Tornadoes actually kill people every year in the regions we are talking and those funds are already tight.
I simply think there are better ways to save lives and money than earthquake-proofing in regions that get earthquakes approximately as often Phoenix gets snow.
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What does it take to convince people to take risks like this seriously? What risks should a human in the 21st century take seriously? Like, if there is a 1-in-50,000 chance of death or lasting injury, is that something that should have me hiding in the closet? I'd take a 1-in-100 chance very seriously of course, I run into 1-in-100 events many times in any given year. If I am supposed to take a particular risk seri…
Probabilities are very hard to think about so I personally relate back to driving. We do it every day but admit it is dangerous and take precautions like requiring testing and licensing, regulate the manufacture of vehicles and inspections and set standards for roads and provide emergency support. Anything more dangerous than driving is of high concern to me and probably requires many additional precautions. Anything…
I won't ridicule it. It's a good example. But I'd follow up immediately with a non-rhetorical question of whether or not this is a risk too low to act on, or one too expensive to act on. If things are as bad as you say, then the only action that might truly be reasonable to mitigate it would be to just move far away. But that's also one of the most expensive actions to take... not to mention the crazy sunk cost fallacy holding over the tops of everyone's heads that will only ever get worse. Certainly spending an extra $200,000 building a new house (on top of whatever the general cost of building new), so that if you happen to be home and not at the strip mall or work or anywhere else, you only have a slightly better chance of surviving uninjured seems a little absurd. Probably better off to just take the hit to your career and the kids' school performance and move to the midwest at that point.
The threshold for many of these people is just set to a different point than yours. They have some understanding of the risk, but think that they merely have to endure that risk and hope to remain lucky.
Re: The struggle to understand why earthquakes happen in America's heartland
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'll grant I could have said 'In the long run requiring better infrastructure probably won't hurt the economy and likely will actually help it.' instead of giving the focus word 'buildings'. Past that, I think my arguments stand. The fact that the economy isn't a zero sum game means that often just building something, anything, can make the economy better for everyone. Trying it to something useful greatly magnifies…
> This gets to the core of the 'not a zero sum game' and 'how do we get people to take it seriously' argument. I am not taking it seriously because I feel you are presenting platitudes and deepities instead of serious arguments. "Not a zero sum game" is often used interchangeably with "society doesn't need to care about costs", and I feel that is what you are doing here. And I strongly value infrastructure and genera…