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Story points are pointless, measure queues

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Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#101
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with the first part. The only thing less useful than estimating points is estimating hours.

I mean I agree, but it's because you should estimating in days. No task significant enough to warrant a ticket in a queue and design effort takes less then a day. Even if you you swear it's "done", the more likely outcome is you'll be dealing with it for hours later that week when some sort of an issue crops up. I've seen so many people "bid" 0.5 and 0.25 day units of time (in points or whatever) and then act offende…

Yep, I've been guilty of this in the past. Any estimate shorter than a day is for a task that wasn't worth the time to break it down and estimate it as a single unit. Like "modify firewall rules to allow traffic to port 1234" -- no, that's not a separate task, that's part of whatever task requires you to do that to get the whole thing to work.

And any task that is meaty enough to be a task will take at least a day, and probably longer.

The one place where I will more or less disagree is when bug-fixing. There are always some bugs where you pop open the debugger and have it solved in an hour or two. I've been at places where bug report tickets were handled differently from stories/tasks, though, so maybe this is fine to just think about separately.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#102
I've always thought of story points as ideally* working like a kind of international currency exchange, where it is normal and expected that Team Teal Dollars will not have any permanent or consistent relationship to Team Maroon Doollars nor to Actual Time. (The saying "time is money" notwithstanding.)

The points will inflate or deflate over the course of months, or even abruptly change with team composition or shifting to new technologies or even vague morale issues. All that is normal, it captures important facets of work, and trying to stop it from happening only creates other problems.

What matters is that somebody is looking at near-past behavior and using it to make a near-future estimate.

* If someone tries to mandate a fixed arbitrary correspondence between points and real world time, that would be a non-ideal scenario for various reasons.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#103

Story points were only ever an approximate unit of time. To fit them into a clear unit of time such as a sprint is a clear indicator of this. To call them complexity or anything else is misleading- transcribing a dictionary by hand into a CSV file is super simple (1 pt) and takes a long time (how many points is 3 FTE-months in your calibration?). Eatimating effort-time vs completion time are quite different, serving…

I just don't get what the new terminology is for. Like how is this helping anybody? Manhours = story points Task = story Subtask = sprint Upcoming tasks = backlog Task turn around time = ?? Project goal(s) = epic(s) I'm probably not even doing this right, but what are we doing here anyway?! It gets real fun when the project involves software/firmware + mechanical engineering (think machines, robotics, etc), gotta lov…

The idea was to not use direct measures of time to estimate because someone above you will start assuming those estimates are promises and then life gets unpleasant.

Story points, much as I personally dislike them, were invented for developer defense.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#104
Story points are primarily a social tool - senior management politics requires that something gets measured; story points make them happy and provide a quantitative way of communicating with the rest of the business. Until we come up with a way of measuring programmer productivity - which is not a queue - there is hard to improve on using story points.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In terms of having utility of estimating how long something will take, I personally have never been able to translate story points into a reliable indicator for that for many reasons (e.g team changing, domain changing, variability in operational load outside of development work). If your measure of the utility of story points is how well they help you estimate time, then you're right, they're useless to you. If you…

>back-of-the-envelope way to estimate which bits of validated functionality you're going to be able to get into the codebase this sprint >help you estimate time How are these different?

Same way that throughput and latency is different. You can use it to predict what the team can deliver in a quarter for example. But difficult to give ETAs to individual stakeholders.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#106

My personal experience with story points is that the number never really mattered, but the process of the team discussing how to rate the complexity of a task was very useful. In terms of having utility of estimating how long something will take, I personally have never been able to translate story points into a reliable indicator for that for many reasons (e.g team changing, domain changing, variability in operation…

The points are needed because it's convenient to do reports based off of it. If we used estimation language such as "easy, medium, hard, dummy-thicc" they'd still need to assign points to those labels so they can do math on reports and graphs to watch your performance The biggest sin of course is then trying to predict velocity, but the consequences of that usually just make people doing the reporting look silly for…

Having worked where a megacorp attempted to normalise points and incentivise velocity, there is a fatal flaw. The people doing the work estimate the size of the work! Increased “velocity” will happen automatically. Actual work throughput will remain the same. Prediction becomes impossible.

The most damning problem with “points” is that you can’t even do basic math with them. Does 4 points take twice as long as 2? No, no it doesn’t. The whole thing is just a giant waste of time.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately, we are bound by time, not complexity. Why does it matter how complex a task is? The product managers and customers wont care how hard we as engineers have to think or reason about a problem; to them, the only thing that matters is time until delivery.

Points are about uncertainty, they're the difference between: - 3-4 weeks - 3-9 weeks Product managers can get their head around that.

Why not just say that then? It’ll take 3-9 weeks. You can then just add all the min and max and get a full range.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#108
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition, I like the whole "Full Queues Amplify Variability" chart. It's intuitively obvious, but I never realized it was that bad. I'm going to have to run that down and see if it's actually backed by real data. Too many business books are complete flimflam.

Reinertsen's books are very, very good. The most recent and most up-to-date is Principles of Product Development Flow, which that chart came from. The previous one, Managing the Design Factory, is pretty similar and I think it's a better read. Another great takeaway from it is to prioritize things by cost of delay, or even better, what he calls Weighted Shortest Job First, where you divide the cost of delay by the ex…

Every CTO needs to read that book.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#109
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>back-of-the-envelope way to estimate which bits of validated functionality you're going to be able to get into the codebase this sprint >help you estimate time How are these different?

Same way that throughput and latency is different. You can use it to predict what the team can deliver in a quarter for example. But difficult to give ETAs to individual stakeholders.

if you are at a point where you employ such a factory throughput thinking for information workers then you're misusing information workers in my opinion. Focusing on a throughput metric is just as nonsensical as focusing on how many lines of code somebody creates, in fact, it's really astonishingly similar in how nonsensical it is. Bug reports, issues and features are not just lumps of coal that you need somebody with a pickaxe to beat it with. If you are treating employees like cogs then they will mold themselves to be empty, unthinking cogs. They will not think of outside solutions anymore, they will not care anymore, they will just take the next issue and beat it as ordered.

In my opinion it could even be seen as the biggest red flag of a team when they start using story points. It fundamentally means that this team started to measure their work in terms of raw issue throughput instead of real value. It may work for a while. Maybe your managers are just so awesome that all the issues they create are perfect and great for the business and you never have to think for yourself at all. But inevitably there will come a point where the company would be better off if everyone was using their full potential but by that point you are stuck with a bunch of cogs that you have molded into cogs over years.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#110
People take these kinds of things way too literally. There is no golden solution here. What gets repeated over and over continues to be true: teams should choose a system that works for them. And ideally that system is measurable, so the team can evaluate progress, improve its own performance, and align itself better with other teams and the business.

But in terms of scrum and points here's my take:

I've seen points work on some teams and not work so well on other teams. It's imperfect, but if you just accept that, you can make it work quite well.

The reason it's helpful to estimate complexity as opposed to time is that people with different experience levels would give different estimates based on their abilities. Complexity allows you to rally around a common understanding of a solution regardless of how fast one team member might be able to complete it versus another.

Does complexity have some relationship to time? Absolutely. Everybody knows this. That doesn't mean that we should be using time instead.

So how can a team estimate accurately? You will hear from some people that their estimates were wildly off or that it's impossible to estimate a project or they felt pressure to under-estimate. If your estimate is too broad, you need to do the mental work of breaking it down into smaller chunks that are easier to estimate. If you feel under pressure to ship on an unrealistic schedule, that's not a points/scrum problem. But the "it's done when it's done" is also not realistic either.

The idea that the estimate has to be 100% spot on is also not true. Again, it's imperfect and that is ok. But you'll find that the better a team knows their codebase and knows the product, the better they'll get over time at estimating. But if the work is too vague, the team should push back until they have enough information to more accurately break things down. This process makes for better software, especially when the team does it together.

Another missing aspect I see a lot is having a feedback mechanism. If you as a team are discussing why a task took longer than the estimate, or track metrics over time, you can all get together and figure out where problems on the team are. For example: maybe there are too many bugs that are hindering product work? Why? Maybe you're moving too fast vis-a-vis the expected quality bar. Some sort of feedback mechanism (e.g. retros) is crucial - the team as a whole should aim to deliver what it says it would and understand why it couldn't.

The whole point of these things is that as a team you can deliver consistently not more speedily. Consistency comes before speed. The other important thing is having a way to continually improve. You want to use each sprint as a way to measure the team so it can get better.

When I've seen teams that did this well, they were dramatically more productive than the teams that didn't do it well.

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