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Story points are pointless, measure queues

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Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#41
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree - just countless times I have to beat that up into peoples head and even people who I would consider smart "points time". After the sprint you can kind of infer the time but it should not be guideline for next estimations unless these are tasks like "fix typos".

Ultimately, we are bound by time, not complexity. Why does it matter how complex a task is? The product managers and customers wont care how hard we as engineers have to think or reason about a problem; to them, the only thing that matters is time until delivery.

So they are bad product managers and customers.

Time until delivery for good managers and customers is a range. Can you estimate getting 10kg of potatoes from grocery store that is 35m driving roundtrip away? Can you say it will be exactly 40mins because you can pick up and pay in 5 mins? I don't, I can say it will take between 40mins and 2h. There are always things like card terminal stops working or you get stuck in traffic because of an accident.

Complexity in that example is uncertainty like I do expect high traffic and there might be an accident happening but if there is less traffic and I hit all green lights 40mins going to be easy.

We all know bad managers and bad customers will expect me to get that bag of potatoes in 37 minutes and then ask 10x why did I not drove over that police officer that was stopping the traffic because of an accident to get their potatoes on time.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#42
This is a problem from a management perspective, not a developer one.

Story points are usable, but they're a "Wild Ass Guess" metric, not a true metric of actual work, and treating them other than a guess is fraught with problems. A 13 point story could fall somewhere between 8 and 21.

Some stories we guessed 8, and ended up being more like 21 (because the dev had to fight unexpected politics, or the API was billed as being "easy to use" but anything but.)

All these are fine and should be fine to developers, except to management.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#43
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree - just countless times I have to beat that up into peoples head and even people who I would consider smart "points time". After the sprint you can kind of infer the time but it should not be guideline for next estimations unless these are tasks like "fix typos".

Ultimately, we are bound by time, not complexity. Why does it matter how complex a task is? The product managers and customers wont care how hard we as engineers have to think or reason about a problem; to them, the only thing that matters is time until delivery.

I think time variability increases with the level of complexity. In this context I see the idea of task complexity being related to uncertainty in the time estimate. This makes it fit nicely with the Fibonacci sequence.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A sprint is a unit of time, how does measuring a "complexity"- whatever that is- helps in figuring out how much stuff you can put in *time*?

I understand what you're saying - of course in some sense they're convertable. But the point is to not think about time when estimating, because if you estimate time you don't factor in things like other tasks, or holiday, or anything else. Or if you do you have to spend ages trying to account perfectly for time. Instead, if you estimate complexity (e.g. I think this task is a 3, just as a starting point, then this t…

But you don't estimate holidays in ... you estimate how long it would take if someone picks on the task Monday morning and works on it full time.

If someone picks up task on Monday then has 20 other meetings - estimation is still the same, he just continues after those 20 meetings and you just don't care when estimating.

Only thing is if at the end of sprint dude is saying "I started X then I had 20 meetings so I did not make it" - well you just accept that or you don't put guy into 20 meetings.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#46

My personal experience with story points is that the number never really mattered, but the process of the team discussing how to rate the complexity of a task was very useful. In terms of having utility of estimating how long something will take, I personally have never been able to translate story points into a reliable indicator for that for many reasons (e.g team changing, domain changing, variability in operation…

The points are needed because it's convenient to do reports based off of it. If we used estimation language such as "easy, medium, hard, dummy-thicc" they'd still need to assign points to those labels so they can do math on reports and graphs to watch your performance

The biggest sin of course is then trying to predict velocity, but the consequences of that usually just make people doing the reporting look silly for no reason. I think even the slow developers rarely get fired, and you also get nothing for clearing more story points than other developers.

No bonuses for higher velocity is the real reason no one takes it seriously.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#47
The post is correct about some problems but completely wrong about solutions. Breaking down tasks that are already sub-sprint-sized in a meeting is the wrong way to do it; you'll put the boundaries in the wrong place and end up duplicating work, and then going overtime when the integration stage takes longer than you thought it would. The right place to do that breakdown is agile, just-in-time: give one person or pair/mob responsibility for a piece of user-facing functionality (that they've already agreed is sub-sprint-sized) and let them do whatever breakdown makes sense for that. If they get confused or stuck they can always raise it in standup (that's why we have them!).

Similarly:

> What happens when the team has turnover? What happens a few months down the line when this work comes back up based on the points that were given previously?

Why would you ever put points on it a few months ahead of time? You do estimation in the sprint planning when it's a candidate for that sprint. There's no need to write down the reasoning for the estimation because the estimation is only relevant for the duration of that meeting (as you prioritise stories for that sprint), and maybe in the retrospective two weeks later if the estimate was way off.

I can see the argument for t-shirt sizes. The "queue" idea is the opposite, and has all the problems of point/time estimation.

> When anyone not directly involved with the project asks why it's taking longer than they thought, the answer will be spelled out in the tasks list. These changes were added on these dates, for these reasons based on this feedback from these people. There is no "your estimate was wrong" situation. There is no "re-estimating" process. There's not even an ask to approve if you can change the point value. It just happens.

Guess what? They're going to ask for dates. They're going to ask why the estimate changed, and not care about the answer because they just want to blame you for their estimates being off. And your "tasks" have just become the same time tracking that you were (rightly) scared of; you have the same problem of having to do a bunch of pointless busywork to justify that you were actually working. (Suppose a "task" is suddenly twice as complex as you thought it was; now you've got to file a second "task" with a fake description to justify why you only did 3 tasks this week when Bob did 4).

The problems the article identifies are: spending too much time and effort on estimation, estimating too far in advance (and then having the team and/or circumstances change), and treating estimates as deadlines. These are all real problems. But they're not problems with story points (indeed story points are actively helpful on the last one, since everyone has to at least pretend to admit that story points are not time estimates), and they're just as easy or difficult to solve whether you use story points or something else.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#48

My personal experience with story points is that the number never really mattered, but the process of the team discussing how to rate the complexity of a task was very useful. In terms of having utility of estimating how long something will take, I personally have never been able to translate story points into a reliable indicator for that for many reasons (e.g team changing, domain changing, variability in operation…

The points are needed because it's convenient to do reports based off of it. If we used estimation language such as "easy, medium, hard, dummy-thicc" they'd still need to assign points to those labels so they can do math on reports and graphs to watch your performance The biggest sin of course is then trying to predict velocity, but the consequences of that usually just make people doing the reporting look silly for…

It's also easy to game the system. Turn a couple of 3's into 5's. Your "velocity" goes up for no real increase in work.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#49

My personal experience with story points is that the number never really mattered, but the process of the team discussing how to rate the complexity of a task was very useful. In terms of having utility of estimating how long something will take, I personally have never been able to translate story points into a reliable indicator for that for many reasons (e.g team changing, domain changing, variability in operation…

Those items after your eg are part of the problem why story points don't work for you. You really do need to control the amount of time your devs get distracted by other things. If they're solely focusing on that one project, you'll be fine. Its why i personally appreciate XP more than plain old scrum.

This, 100%. When engineers have focus, no context switching... things get done. When they're interrupted with useless Zoom meetings every 2 hours, productivity drops off the cliff. If you have 2 meetings 1 hour apart, that 1 hour is basically useless: by the time you're in the zone, you're interrupted again.

Re: Story points are pointless, measure queues

#50
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately, we are bound by time, not complexity. Why does it matter how complex a task is? The product managers and customers wont care how hard we as engineers have to think or reason about a problem; to them, the only thing that matters is time until delivery.

So they are bad product managers and customers. Time until delivery for good managers and customers is a range. Can you estimate getting 10kg of potatoes from grocery store that is 35m driving roundtrip away? Can you say it will be exactly 40mins because you can pick up and pay in 5 mins? I don't, I can say it will take between 40mins and 2h. There are always things like card terminal stops working or you get stuck i…

I don't follow how we go from "they are bad product managers and customers" to... therefor time estimates are bad. I do not think it is unreasonable for our primary stakeholders to ultimately care about time. I also do not think it is unreasonable to give error bars in estimates like "this project is uncertain, therefor estimates will be variable".
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