Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016) • Hacker News Board

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#401

Post by ghaff » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:02 PM UTC

wslh wrote: post #306

gamepsys wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a retail investor, it's good to remind myself that if I actually had the skills to invest professionally, someone would probably be paying me to do it for them. Don't discount the knowledge you have from being deep into an industry. The higher quality of the CUDA toolkit compared to other SIMD languages, combined with it's increasing relevance in compute (gaming, followed by blockchain, followed by ML, followed…

1000% but when it is the right time (per fundamental analysis). For example around the subprime crisis companies such as Microsoft had a low PE ratio and the average person thought that Microsoft was a loser vs. Apple and Google. Microsoft has a resilience track record that would be the envy of most companies and .NET was a real thing. I also remember other companies such as Globant that has a lower PE price vs. simi…

Microsoft has actually been a nice investment if you bought in the latter 2010s. I don't remember why I did. Probably I liked what Nadella was doing.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#402

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:03 PM UTC

vitus wrote: post #377

gamepsys wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a retail investor, it's good to remind myself that if I actually had the skills to invest professionally, someone would probably be paying me to do it for them. Don't discount the knowledge you have from being deep into an industry. The higher quality of the CUDA toolkit compared to other SIMD languages, combined with it's increasing relevance in compute (gaming, followed by blockchain, followed by ML, followed…

So you've been invested in NVDA for 15 years? Because that's how long AMD's been trying unsuccessfully to crack CUDA's secret (OpenCL was initially released in 2009 when it was already clear that nobody wanted to use AMD cards for HPC). Or how about 5-10 years, when it was clear that everyone was using Nvidia for crypto-related purposes? Heck, even start-of-pandemic when high-end graphics cards were nigh impossible t…

[deleted]

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#403

Post by humansareok1 » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:08 PM UTC

grepLeigh wrote: post #272

Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor. Whenever I'm tempted to buy individual high performing tickers (e.g. NVDA, TSLA, AMD), I restrict the purchase to no more than 2% of my portfolio and I only allow myself to bet on 2-3 "race horses" at a time. I think this fulfills the desire to gamble a little and see 100-200% YoY returns. NVDA cracked 300% cost basis when I finally sold, which is wild. The reason I can do thi…

I like this approach too. My primary investments in index funds continue to grow and I get just enough of a dopamine hit from smaller bets on Nvidia and Crypto that I don't get crushed by fomo and end up betting my mortgage on some far otm call options or some shitcoin.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#404

Post by humansareok1 » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:12 PM UTC

gamepsys wrote: post #286

grepLeigh wrote: post #272

Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor. Whenever I'm tempted to buy individual high performing tickers (e.g. NVDA, TSLA, AMD), I restrict the purchase to no more than 2% of my portfolio and I only allow myself to bet on 2-3 "race horses" at a time. I think this fulfills the desire to gamble a little and see 100-200% YoY returns. NVDA cracked 300% cost basis when I finally sold, which is wild. The reason I can do thi…

> As a retail investor, it's good to remind myself that if I actually had the skills to invest professionally, someone would probably be paying me to do it for them. Don't discount the knowledge you have from being deep into an industry. The higher quality of the CUDA toolkit compared to other SIMD languages, combined with it's increasing relevance in compute (gaming, followed by blockchain, followed by ML, followed…

>The higher quality of the CUDA toolkit compared to other SIMD languages, combined with it's increasing relevance in compute (gaming, followed by blockchain, followed by ML, followed by GPT) would have made this an NVDA an easy pick for anyone (of the increasing number of people) that worked in parallel computing from 2006-2023.

Hindsight is 20/20. I highly doubt people in parallel computing, unless they already worked at Nvidia, have done better than anyone else with their portfolios. Other than the standard delta you'd assume since those people are probably savvier investors in general.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#405

Post by throwaway2037 » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:15 PM UTC

sofixa wrote: post #362

throwaway2037 wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can avoid the sell low situation by having 3-6 months of expenses saved in an emergency savings account. I see this (3-6 mos savings) constantly quoted in basic personal mgmt blog posts, but it seems unrealistic for most. Seriously, what percentage of people in OECD can do this? Surely, less than 5%. I am not sure it is great advice because it is discouragingly unrealistic for most. The average person has out o…

> I see this (3-6 mos savings) constantly quoted in basic personal mgmt blog posts, but it seems unrealistic for most. Seriously, what percentage of people in OECD can do this Also worth noting that in most of the OECD, 3+ and even maybe 3 months depending on the situation is quite high, bordering on the wasteful. Americans have to worry about healthcare and crappy if present unemployment payments if they lose their…

Why is this being downvoted? There are lots of great points in this post. I never considered that most of the advice that I am reading is aimed toward US people, where the labour laws and social safety net for working people is awful, compared to the rest of OECD.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#406

Post by humansareok1 » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:17 PM UTC

jl2718 wrote: post #322

The original idea behind passive investing was to use the pooled intelligence of many traders guessing the value of cr I think we’re beyond that. Most traders are just trying to get a timing edge over the indices. This introduces the modern concept of passive investing as a positive feedback loop force-fed by monetary supply. The market seems to hate dividends and buybacks, preferring expansion or acquisition, but th…

Can you explain how it's fundamentally any different from retail investors just buying and holding the SP500 Index Companies' stocks individually?

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#407

Post by humansareok1 » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:18 PM UTC

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #89

TrainedMonkey wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Noting that it is possible to beat market, with strategies / algorithms that are generally non-public. For example medallion fund, see https://posts.voronoiapp.com/markets/Jim-Simons-Medallion-Fu... . Note that these crazy performance stats are after the steep fixed + performance fees.

Strangely, the other funds operated by the same company and actually open to outside investors, have not performed as well. It is unexplained exactly why.

Seems pretty obvious that their keeping their best returning strategies for employees rather than outside investors?

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#408

Post by humansareok1 » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:20 PM UTC

wcoenen wrote: post #48

throwaway2037 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why stress about beating the market? Just be the market with an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index. Literally, setup auto invest from your paycheck. Go to sleep (Rip van Winkel style). Wake up 40 years later and retire comfortably. Look at total returns over the last 40 years on the most popular indices in the world. S&P 500 crushes them all. I see a lot of "Internet advice" recommending various MSCI world indices…

Picking the S&P500 over a world index because you think it will outperform, has the same problem as picking individual stocks over an index. You can't actually know which will outperform in the future.

Has the World Index ever outperformed the SP500 over a 40-50 year span?

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#409

Post by ghaff » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:28 PM UTC

throwaway2037 wrote: post #405

sofixa wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I see this (3-6 mos savings) constantly quoted in basic personal mgmt blog posts, but it seems unrealistic for most. Seriously, what percentage of people in OECD can do this Also worth noting that in most of the OECD, 3+ and even maybe 3 months depending on the situation is quite high, bordering on the wasteful. Americans have to worry about healthcare and crappy if present unemployment payments if they lose their…

Why is this being downvoted? There are lots of great points in this post. I never considered that most of the advice that I am reading is aimed toward US people, where the labour laws and social safety net for working people is awful, compared to the rest of OECD.

Probably because of the narrative that people are routinely fired out of the blue and that there is no recourse to also suddenly having tens of thousands of dollars in medical expenses also out of the blue.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#410

Post by Majromax » Mon, Jul 15, 2024, 2:28 PM UTC

throwaway2037 wrote: post #326

Majromax wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Applying optimal portfolio theory to the long history of market returns suggests that the most risk-efficient allocation is something like 60% stocks and 40% bonds. The diversification reduces volatility faster than it reduces the overall return, so equity-like returns can be regained by using leverage on the portfolio. Following this advice today is tricky thanks to the persistent yield inversion: you obviously can'…

I am not sure that anyone recommends that 22 year olds put 40% of their retirement portfolio in bonds! That is insanely conservative.

That's where leverage comes in. Under more ordinary conditions, the 22 year-old would have something like 80% in equities and 50% in bonds, using leverage to have a net 130% invested.

Under current conditions, that allocation is more questionable. The yield inversion means that the expected value of a leveraged bond investment is about zero (borrowing at a higher short-term rate to lend at a lower long-term rate), so any portfolio gains come from anti-correlation of bond and stock prices. However, the current market worry is more about stagflation than a traditional recession, such that inflation leads to both higher interest rates and lower equity returns (through equity de-leverage).