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Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

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341–350 of 496 posts

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#341

Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor. Whenever I'm tempted to buy individual high performing tickers (e.g. NVDA, TSLA, AMD), I restrict the purchase to no more than 2% of my portfolio and I only allow myself to bet on 2-3 "race horses" at a time. I think this fulfills the desire to gamble a little and see 100-200% YoY returns. NVDA cracked 300% cost basis when I finally sold, which is wild. The reason I can do thi…

> As a retail investor, it's good to remind myself that if I actually had the skills to invest professionally, someone would probably be paying me to do it for them. Don't discount the knowledge you have from being deep into an industry. The higher quality of the CUDA toolkit compared to other SIMD languages, combined with it's increasing relevance in compute (gaming, followed by blockchain, followed by ML, followed…

This sounds a lot like hindsight bias. Nvidia is a great company but they lucked out on two unpredictable hypes, crypto and AI, that happened in close sequence to each other.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think when stating your opinion against 40 years of econometrical research, including multiple Nobel prizes in economy, you should feel enticed to explain your opinion a bit more than "no I don't think so"...

This is absolutely absurd. Economists including Nobel prize winners, including even Eugene Fama who proposed the Efficient Market Hypothesis, does not think the stock market is normally distributed. At best, using a normal distribution is something that undergrads use as a tool to learn about the stock market and make some simplifying assumptions for pedagogical purposes, but it most certainly is not something that a…

Come on, don't create a trial of nitpicking. I am not saying returns are a law of nature meant to teach us normality.

My point is that, for all intent and purposes, you should assume normal distribution of returns.

If you don't, you're obviously on either end of the spectrum: not knowing the subject at all, or nitpicking expertise on the internet.

The subject of the matter here is convincing someone that risk adjusted measures should be considered when comparing portfolios. This is the basic underlying modelisation that 99.99% of the finance world makes, "compare sharpes", "compare volatility adjusted returns".

I'm stating 1+1=2 and you're arguing it doesn't hold in Z/2.

> At best, using a normal distribution is something that undergrads use as a tool to learn about the stock market and make some simplifying assumptions for pedagogical purposes

Implicit normality assumptions are everywhere. I encourage you to think hardly about your model and question whether anything you do would work on non normal distributions, you will most likely find that you have millions of these assumptions in your linear combinations, sample renormalization, regressions, sharpe weighters and optimizations.

Now of course you could refine that with students, lognormals, and whatever, but this is more _refinement_ than anything.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a retail investor, it's good to remind myself that if I actually had the skills to invest professionally, someone would probably be paying me to do it for them. Don't discount the knowledge you have from being deep into an industry. The higher quality of the CUDA toolkit compared to other SIMD languages, combined with it's increasing relevance in compute (gaming, followed by blockchain, followed by ML, followed…

This sounds a lot like hindsight bias. Nvidia is a great company but they lucked out on two unpredictable hypes, crypto and AI, that happened in close sequence to each other.

We tend to underestimate the fortune component of success when we succeed. And other aspects, like ruthlessness. Also, having a self satisfaction in the wise (but cautious, or even silent) past forecasting of success for those that coincidentally succeeded eventually (forgetting the others we were wrong about).

We seen good and promising products targetting growing markets fail while competing half crap craps sell wild with the broad public and win, go large.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I dont have a dog in this hunt but that seems like a strangely aggressive response. Well I do and as someone who has seen his other posts on this subject as well, he has a tendency to try to dismiss differing points of views on the basis that he has 20 years of experience and knows better than everyone else but can't be bothered to explain it. Someone who has experience and wants to flaunt that experience should do…

> decades of experience working at a quant firm Has quant finance existed for "decades"?

The meaning of quantitative changes a bit with time and context.

I would say the more "bayesian / sell side / derivative pricing" kind of meaning exists since the late 70s, the more "frequentist / buy side / let's hire 100 physics PhDs" meaning came prominent in the early 2000s. (as a general feeling).

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. It's normal in the tech industry to own a lot of stock in the company you work for. Investing in a vendor (in Nvidia's case) or another adjacent company is lower risk. You cannot avoid risk in investing, it's a natural part of the situation. 2. You can avoid the sell low situation by having 3-6 months of expenses saved in an emergency savings account. With all the layoffs in the last few years everyone should have…

> You can avoid the sell low situation by having 3-6 months of expenses saved in an emergency savings account. I see this (3-6 mos savings) constantly quoted in basic personal mgmt blog posts, but it seems unrealistic for most. Seriously, what percentage of people in OECD can do this? Surely, less than 5%. I am not sure it is great advice because it is discouragingly unrealistic for most. The average person has out o…

Coming from a family that has a frugal culture, it’s always been easy for me to save a substantial part of my income, even when I had to downsize my lifestyle after losing a relatively high paying job. Looking at how people around me spend their money, it can feel they’re actively trying to get rid of their entire salary.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please quote a Nobel prize (well, there's no Nobel prize in economy, but surely we understand each other) winner explaining that stock prices are, in actual reality, random variables.

> explaining that stock prices are To be pedantic, stock returns, not prices. As for the quotes, I encourage you to strongly think about the meaning of the work of Sharpe, Black & Scholes and Markowitz applied to non normal distributions (both Nobel prizes, we understand each other). In particular, try to articulate the relevancy of sharpe ratios between two non normally distributed portfolios.

> To be pedantic, stock returns, not prices.

If one is a random variable, so is the other. It's a simple change of variables. What's your point?

> As for the quotes, I encourage you to strongly think about the meaning of the work of Sharpe, Black & Scholes and Markowitz applied to non normal distributions (both Nobel prizes, we understand each other).

Could you quote the part where they say that actual, real-world stock prices (or returns, whatever) are random?

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't touched my 401(K) in over 30 years. It's done 9-20% per year. It's not super aggressive, but will take a hit, on really bad markets (the only year it actually lost money, was 2020 -and it has completely made up for that. It even made some money in 2008). I ignore the Fidelity calls. Every time a new broker rotates in, they try to get me to move my money around.

I don't work for Interactive Brokers, but I do periodically shill for them here on HN! Their market access diversity and rock bottom fees are very hard to beat. It should be possible to transfer a 401k in-whole with zero tax consequences nor booked trades.

Yeah... At times I just take funds I like, read what they re actually made of, and replicate their holdings in IBKR. This way I dodge the fund's 0.5% annual fees and performance fees.

39 cents per transaction is hard to beat.

The lump sum of cash on the sideline gets you 4.83% on IBKR (as long you have $100K+ on he sidelines). Cash secured puts you sell bring you yield on the USDs securing the put.

Financial reports they make are top Noth and entirely configurable.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#348
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do. But if you offer the service to other people, you get a lot more money to play with (meaning you can do more or different things than you could with less) and get to charge performance fees etc. in addition to your own capital gains. Really, you could say it about absolutely any job, it's just a bit more direct with managing money. 'If you were any good at writing software you would just sell your own SaaS',…

That's the common claim, but if you actually look at the successful funds that beat market year after year, their public fund is always the low yield, experimental strategies while the internal funds demolish the market. The reality is that most lucrative strategies have a yield cap and people who find them quickly surpass the cap so they just keep the strategies to themselves.

That doesn't really invalidate my point though: the extra capital gives the option, and the fees.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont have a dog in this hunt but that seems like a strangely aggressive response. Perhaps the comment meant nothing more than that plaintext HN is a difficult place to start having a discussion that really requires some mathematical machinery, and therefore, since we cant throw around sigmas and integral signs here, we will make some assumptions. Attacking the comment with sarcasm isn't in the spirit of HN even if…

>I dont have a dog in this hunt but that seems like a strangely aggressive response. Well I do and as someone who has seen his other posts on this subject as well, he has a tendency to try to dismiss differing points of views on the basis that he has 20 years of experience and knows better than everyone else but can't be bothered to explain it. Someone who has experience and wants to flaunt that experience should do…

>> I dont have a dog in this hunt

> Well I do

Well then what's your stake here?

> he has a tendency to try to dismiss differing points of views on the basis that he has 20 years of experience

I surely will concede I have this tendency, now you have to keep the context in mind. You are on an internet forum focused on CS, and emerges a comment thread on personal investments. The very subject of this thread is whether it makes sense to consider risk adjusted returns or just any kind of returns for your investments.

My argument is based on the fact that risk adjusted returns should be used, and you should assume normal distribution. I am not saying this is a law of nature, but rather that this is a fine and widely used assumption for both practitioners and academics, which allows the argument and explanation to go further without entering an experts debate (like you are trying to start).

So I stand by what I said: for all intents of this discussion, assuming normal distribution should be a given. If you want to dance around it and demonstrate that a students distribution or whatnot is a better fit, go ahead. I think this is more armful than helpful here.

> try to dismiss differing points of views on the basis that he has 20 years of experience

I think this is important on the contrary. What is lost on a forum like HN is the context of people answering comments. When someone comments "I don't think risk adjusted returns are important", it makes a hell lot of a difference if it's just the opinion of a random guy, or someone with actual experience.

Now while it takes 1 sentence to wrongfully dismiss a scientific fact, it can take 100 pages of an expert to prove that it's true. Look at a proof that 1+1=2.

That is where credentials are important IMHO. Some debate tengents are not interesting in a discussion, and will only lead to an expert explanation serving no purpose other than confusing a reader, and making the expert proud of himself. In these situations, just stopping the tengent is the best reaction IMHO.

So I apologize if you take my comments as dismissing, but try to assume good intent. When someone asks why you should use risk adjusted returns to compare investments, I think the saner thing to do is to tell him to assume normal distribution, because that's the far more likely scenario, most of the research do take this overall assumption, and you can proceed to the demonstration that makes sense, which I showcased in my previous comment about 10% returns on 10% annual vol versus 5% returns on 1% annual vol.

To re take the example I posted above, when the discussion is about 1+1=2, I don't think you're doing any good contradicting that it doesn't hold on Z/2.

Assuming normal distribution of returns is a pretty standard base for comparing investments. It is a base shared by many models and metrics. Sharpes don't make a lot of sense on non normal distributions, mean variance optimization either.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#350
post #322

The original idea behind passive investing was to use the pooled intelligence of many traders guessing the value of cr I think we’re beyond that. Most traders are just trying to get a timing edge over the indices. This introduces the modern concept of passive investing as a positive feedback loop force-fed by monetary supply. The market seems to hate dividends and buybacks, preferring expansion or acquisition, but th…

Yeah. Some are saying passive investment is the biggest bubble of all times. The P/E of so many companies, not just tech ones, makes zero sense.

Mandatory pension funds are a ponzi. And btw the EU is hard at work working on one atm: they re currently thinking hard as to how to capture the wealth of EU citizens and the latest iteration would be a mandatory fund to invest in... State sponsored companies. They ll oc course not be presenting it that way but that s what it is. Then they ll kick the can down the road for years or decades by forcing mandatory contribution from new taxpayers.

Ponzi / pyramidal / state-mandated shenanigans never end well.

FWIW that mandatory fund in the EU shall be used to finance the army, digital transition (supposedly to counter the US but actually to siphon taxpayers money into friends of politicians creating companies that ll never compete with SV) and... Ecology.

I'm not thrilled that in a few months I ll be forced to invest in that.

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