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Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

wsj.com

211–220 of 496 posts

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#211
post #208

So, for SURE it is possible to beat "the market", but: - strategy is limited up to max 1mio per account (well, maybe 2 pr 3) - you need a tailored software, tools like MT/et al wont help you - with a leverage of 5-10, its possible to achieve gigantic returns - system needs to be capable of going short as well - your individual application should abstract-away all dauly charting&news noise: what counts is statistics a…

Can you elaborate on the regulations preventing corp implementation here please?

Sure, thanks for this question!

In case of public funds:

Depending on the jurisdiction, funds are allowed to invest only in certain securities, like stocks or bonds. In most countries, they are not allowed to use all available products; esp all products which offer high leverage (and highlosschances) are not allowed for institutionals.

A private prop trading company may do it, though they are not managing billions (as the pension fund in the article); and those prop traders in reverse can not that easily attract "other people money"

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#212

To any fund manager out there that truly believes you can beat the market, here is how you can sell me your fund: We agree on an index and a time frame. You guarantee me the same return as the index within that time frame. If you beat the index, you keep 90% of returns ABOVE the index (and I get 10%). We both win, and you win big. If you don't beat the index (within the time frame), you make up the difference (so I g…

You’re probably aware that no fund manager would accept your offer. But it doesn’t prove that they don’t think they can beat the market (as misguided as that belief might be), it just means they’re not willing to take on an absurd amount of risk to prove it.

it points out the inherrent bullshit to the current arrangement

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I have tried to simulate this several times under different conditions. Given zero sum game and random odds, there is always going to be small percentage who have a lot and most will have below what they started with. It is easy to explain as well, if you for example start with $1000 and you have 50% odds of winning 10% every time. If you win and lose 50% you are going to be below what you started. If you alway…

Stock market is not zero sum.

Yes, but in terms of beating the market it should be.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#215
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> getting 10% average annual returns with 10% annual volatility is worst than getting 5% returns with 1% annual volatility. Doesn't this depend on how long you're planning on investing for, and what your criteria for selling your investments are? If you're planning on investing for at least 10 years, and you're willing to give yourself a 2-3 year window for selling your investments once they reach a threshhold you de…

> isn't the 10%/10% investment better? If you consider that "you don't know any better" and returns are normally distributed (i.e. you don't have some secret sauce nobody else knows about), then there is no dimension in which the 10/10 is better. You can convince yourself intuitively by imagining how you would maximize each strategy. The amount of money you have is a factor of the risk you take, because if you want t…

> you just have to go to the bank and borrow 10x your capital.

"just" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#216
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would anyone take the other side of this bet? It's an incredible financial instrument, that anyone on the buyside would buy in an instant (as formulated -- ignored fees/tcosts etc).

If I can consistently make more than 10% on your money, I'll take the other side.

If you can consistently make more than 10% you don’t need to hamstring yourself with this terrible deal, you can just get investment on typical terms.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#217
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I can consistently make more than 10% on your money, I'll take the other side.

If you can consistently make more than 10% you don’t need to hamstring yourself with this terrible deal, you can just get investment on typical terms.

If I can consistently make 30%, this terrible deal will make me 20%, whereas the typical terms of management fees will make me 5%.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#218
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re probably aware that no fund manager would accept your offer. But it doesn’t prove that they don’t think they can beat the market (as misguided as that belief might be), it just means they’re not willing to take on an absurd amount of risk to prove it.

I mean it does mean that they don't have faith in their ability to beat the market on average across significant time spans.

Or, it's just that risk management isn't about faith.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#219
The title was correct yesterday. Why is the title editorialized today?

"What Does Nevada’s $35 Billion Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing"

This is the actual title of the article, the page, and the printed version. There was no reason to have edited this except for optics. If true, that's absurd, dang.

Re: Nevada’s public employee pension fund invests passively and beats peers (2016)

#220

To any fund manager out there that truly believes you can beat the market, here is how you can sell me your fund: We agree on an index and a time frame. You guarantee me the same return as the index within that time frame. If you beat the index, you keep 90% of returns ABOVE the index (and I get 10%). We both win, and you win big. If you don't beat the index (within the time frame), you make up the difference (so I g…

Disclaimer, I work for a market-neutral fund, and have close friends high up in prop shops.

Presuming all strategies have a curve of diminishing marginal returns as assets under management increase, you would not expect any fund accepting outside money to have expected returns beating the market, but you would expect many of them to have a combination of correlation to the market and expected returns that would make them an attractive component in a basket of broad index ETFs and market-neutral funds. (Assuming risk-adjusted returns are the utility function being optimized. If variance is their preferred risk metric, this results in optimizing Sharpe ratio via mean-variance optimization, MVO.)

It's fair to assume that any fund manager is optimizing the sum of returns from their own personal investments in the fund plus fees from outside investors. They pick the place on the volume/risk-adjusted-returns curve that still keeps their fund attractive enough to outside investors, and maximizes their personal profits (personal returns plus fund fees).

If that optimal point on the volume/risk-adjusted returns curve for their particular strategy is at a point where risk-adjusted returns beat the market, then they maximize their returns by either never accepting outside funds (prop shops) or by not accepting additional funds and gradually buying out their investors (such as RenTech's famous Medallion fund).

So, (assuming diminishing marginal returns) it's not rational to simultaneously accept outside investment and beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis.

I suspect that many market-neutral funds could reliably beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis, but their volume/risk-adjusted-returns curve shape and their fee structures make it optimal for them to operate at a point on that curve where their expected returns are below the market.

Note that this rational self-interest optimization below market returns isn't bad for the investors. Under most fee structures, it ends up being close to maximizing total investor returns. Increasing percentage returns would mean kicking out some investors.

RenTech's Medallion Fund and many prop shops, and funds that are currently slowly buying out their investors seem to indicate there are at least some strategies where the optimal volume/returns trade-off is above market returns. You would expect all funds that are currently open to more outside investment to either be young and lacking capital or else have an optimal point on the volume/returns curve that is below market returns.

Note that as previously mentioned, a simple mean-variance optimization on a basket would allocate funds to both index ETFs and market-neutral funds returning a bit under the market on average. It's entirely possible that both fund investors and fund managers are being perfectly rational.

Of course, there are also plenty of people out there who fool themselves into thinking they know what they're doing. The world certainly isn't perfectly rational.

I'm just saying that in a perfectly rational world, assuming (1) utility function of risk-adjusted-returns (e.g. Sharpe ratio, resulting in mean-variance-optimization) (2) declining marginal returns on investment, you would expect all funds accepting outside investors (except for young funds desperate for money) to under-perform the market in expected returns.

Now, everyone talks about Sharpe ratio on the outside, but the particular risk models actually used internally by any fund are almost certainly not just variance of returns. I presume all funds simultaneously apply a mixture of commercially available risk models and internally developed risk models. Sharpe ratio is far from perfect, but it's a good least-common-denominator for discussion, and doesn't give away any secret sauce.

Side note: it would be rational for someone to take you up on your proposal and simply use index futures to take a highly leveraged position on your benchmark index. As long as they had enough money to make you whole in the case of bad tracking error and large downturns, their expected returns would be large. However, you wouldn't be very smart to take such an agreement instead of just getting leverage yourself. This demonstrates why risk-adjusted returns are usually more important than expected returns.

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