Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

cnn.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–47 of 47 posts

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#41

Post by aiauthoritydev »

worstspotgain wrote: post #32
aiauthoritydev wrote: post #22

At the core of the Russia-Ukraine war there is something that we should all be somewhat concerned about. It is clear that USA remains an economic, cultural, moral and even spiritual powerhouse as other civilizations go through all sort of turbulence. By virtue of this, other "western" value nations like EU nations, Japan, Australia, South Korea etc. are doing well and likely to do well and benefit. Together we beat c…

I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prevail. I would like to add: - The Russians and Chinese are not natural allies (historically quite the contrary.) - The only belligerence the Chinese have shown is on Taiwan and the South China Sea. On a pound-for-pound basis, they've been throwing their weight a…

I agree with you.

The problem with China is that its internal processes are aligned to be self destructive. I am from India and I understand Indian politicians and ruling class which has deep fetish for Russia and CCP. But Indian public likes American phones and youtube. So despite all the political moves, India remains mostly west aligned.

CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its people or even national interests as long as it can stay in power. Stephen Kotkin on Hoover institution explains this better than I would.

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#42

Post by aiauthoritydev »

dralley wrote: post #31
aiauthoritydev wrote: post #22

At the core of the Russia-Ukraine war there is something that we should all be somewhat concerned about. It is clear that USA remains an economic, cultural, moral and even spiritual powerhouse as other civilizations go through all sort of turbulence. By virtue of this, other "western" value nations like EU nations, Japan, Australia, South Korea etc. are doing well and likely to do well and benefit. Together we beat c…

This is total nonsense. Putin does not care about AI, by all accounts he doesn't even use technology much personally, he cares about being remembered as a Peter the Great figure who restored Russia to their rightful place as a superpower. It's just bog-standard nationalism of a kind we've seen dozens of times before.

You and I are saying the same thing.

China does not need to attack India or Taiwan right now to prove that its a superpower because it already is. It is consulted on all major issues and the world engaged with them with respect because they have earned it. China hopes that it will be more powerful in future and hence they are measured in their approach.

Russia is lost. There is nothing else Putin could do to make Russia more relevant on world stage. Russia is staring at slow decline of its human capital which will settle in west. Its former colonies like Ukraine or Poland would love to be part of EU/NATO etc.

This is why Putin needs a war to appear great. At its core it is about western world's victory on the world state.

After war he will assassinate your innovators and business leaders.

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#43

Post by worstspotgain »

jfengel wrote: post #39
worstspotgain wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prevail. I would like to add: - The Russians and Chinese are not natural allies (historically quite the contrary.) - The only belligerence the Chinese have shown is on Taiwan and the South China Sea. On a pound-for-pound basis, they've been throwing their weight a…

The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. I'm not following this point. They don't need the Chinese to completely align with Russia. They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. The Chinese seem content to engage in the usual economic jockeying…

> They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war.

I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO.

At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and minor, and therefore entirely Russian-serving. Chinese hacking is mostly tech espionage and one millionth of the Russian amount. The Taiwan crisis is also intrinsically petty. China basically wants to take it over because the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek was never really settled. It's a bit like the geopolitical version of "but her emails," like the Turkish/Armenian animus without the genocide event.

> We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism.

The Russians have updated the dictatorial model for the 21st century, making uprisings a thing of the past. There's no group or category left whose getting fed up makes a difference. In extreme cases, the experience in Syria and Venezuela is that beating down hard on the population improves the dictatorial position (like in WW2) instead of weakening it (like in Britain's American colonies.) Plotting a coup is hard to impossible too. It just requires so many cogwheels that it gets caught by surveillance before it hatches.

Putin has also updated what it means to take over a country. His first preference was a vassalized Ukraine with Yanukovich, i.e. conquest by any other name. Countries like Hungary are one Big Lie-like claim away from having their elections Rwanda-ized. The Ukraine treatment is a last resort for countries who just plain refuse vassalization.

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#44

Post by worstspotgain »

aiauthoritydev wrote: post #41
worstspotgain wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prevail. I would like to add: - The Russians and Chinese are not natural allies (historically quite the contrary.) - The only belligerence the Chinese have shown is on Taiwan and the South China Sea. On a pound-for-pound basis, they've been throwing their weight a…

I agree with you. The problem with China is that its internal processes are aligned to be self destructive. I am from India and I understand Indian politicians and ruling class which has deep fetish for Russia and CCP. But Indian public likes American phones and youtube. So despite all the political moves, India remains mostly west aligned. CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its…

> CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its people or even national interests as long as it can stay in power.

Absolutely. Democracy is ideal against tyranny, corruption and mismanagement. As you said, it has kept the Indian government relatively in check, in spite of India's history of Soviet alignment.

Russia has long sought to exploit democracy's structural weaknesses by corrupting foreign politicians and journalists. Their attempt to incite a race war in the US, for instance, dates back to the early 20th century. One can argue it never ceased.

This century, the efforts became massively more effective with their new cyber capabilities. Even when they can't get an outright puppet elected, they can still put their finger on the scale. At a minimum, they're the new kingmakers.

The CCP is insulated from this. Almost paradoxically, this means it can listen to any deals we propose without worrying about blowback from Putin's local political proxies.

Unfortunately, Putin's proxies here are the reason we're not proposing any such deals.

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#45

Post by t0bia_s »

aiauthoritydev wrote: post #40
t0bia_s wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Together we beat covid, invented magic pills for obesity, moved towards cheaper and better energy sources and kept our institutions strong. Covid is beaten by our immune system. Since covid we have also rising overall mortality and total distrust in science, media and governments. Obesity in wealthy countries, while millions starving in developing countries, treated by magic pills? Energy prices are much more expen…

West throughout last 200 years or so has been better than rest of the world and yet deeply unhappy about it self. So my claim is not that it is Utopia but it is vastly better than rest of the world and continues to get better with the gap widening. At this point, other than China, non western countries have nothing meaningful to offer to the world other than natural resources and basic labor. Even the best parts of t…

West is loosing a meaning. If you replace spirituality with consumerism and relationships with individuslism, what would you expect?

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#46

Post by jfengel »

worstspotgain wrote: post #43
jfengel wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. I'm not following this point. They don't need the Chinese to completely align with Russia. They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. The Chinese seem content to engage in the usual economic jockeying…

> They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and…

Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Dictators tend to leave a succession crisis, though I doubt there's some real democracy impending. Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge.

It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. China and the US are pushing each other economically. It's kinda ugly but it's not killing anyone, and a lot of people are getting employed out of it.

Russia could play that same game, and they've got the resources and brain power to get rich. Instead they are trying to win by dragging everyone else down.

And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. Not that the US is any great shakes on the moral high road but that part is genuinely killing people.

Re: US and Germany foiled Russian plot to assassinate CEO of arms manufacturer

#47

Post by worstspotgain »

jfengel wrote: post #46
worstspotgain wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and…

Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Dictators tend to leave a succession crisis, though I doubt there's some real democracy impending. Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. China and the US are pushing each other economically. It's kinda ugly but it's not killing anyone, and a lot of people ar…

> Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows.

Crystal ball says a guy with a full head of hair. [1]

> Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor.

The ambition that selects dictators has no bounds. Once they conquer everything at home, abroad is all that's left. It's never enough. Caesar visited Alexander's tomb and lamented taking 20 years longer to conquer the world. [2]

Maybe Russians are so used to it that they yield the home base ASAP and let the rest of the planet take the brunt. Kind of an inside-out, downhill version of the supply line stretch tactic against Napoleon and Hitler.

> And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on.

I think it's the other way around, Russia is egging us on against China. A certain Russophile started a tariff war, which I promise you the Chinese are not crazy about. About 15 minutes after Covid hit, Putin's proxies were flooding Twitter trying to get the "China flu" nickname to stick.

Globalization is basically a gravity well with "everyone playing nice" at the bottom. This was the theory behind granting China MFN status in the 90s. What people seem to miss is that it largely worked. Russia restructured its economy for war. China is restructuring its economy for... clean energy.

They never got to Western-style democracy, true. But aside from policy speeches, we didn't really push for it much. They have a mechanism for selecting leaders. We could have lobbied for a tweak here, an allowing of dissent there. Over a decade or two they could have surpassed every shitty Gulf kingdom. They still could.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald–hairy

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvx3Btbibb8

Post reply on HN